College Basketball Picks
It’s a big college football Saturday and also a big college basketball Saturday. These days are going to be really tough for oddsmakers because they have to put lines on every college hoops game, even something like LIU vs. La Salle, or Lamar vs. Abilene Christian, though those games might get some bets, if that. In other words, there should be some misleading numbers today and every Saturday while CFB is still going.
Handicapping early-season college basketball is a big challenge because there are so many new faces and moving parts, but it’s also a market that provides plenty of opportunity for those who are prepared. That’s one reason why our 2026-27 College Basketball Betting Guide is so important. Another reason why Steve Makinen’s College Basketball Daily Matchup Ratings will be useful.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, because they provide a lot of great data.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. The lines will come from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check out the latest college basketball odds for legal US sportsbooks nationwide and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today that have your interest.
Odds from Circa Sportsbook or DraftKings Sportsbook (most Extra Games) at time of publication.
Southeastern Louisiana at Little Rock (-10, 145.5)
8 pm ET
Pick: Southeastern Louisiana +10
I really liked a lot of what I saw from Southeastern Louisiana, which I realized was ridiculous to say in a 91-59 loss. But, let’s take a deeper look at that Auburn game. The Lions had the same number of turnovers (14) as the Tigers. They were just 9-of-25 at the rim and 8-of-33 from 3. Little Rock doesn’t have the length or athleticism that Auburn has. So, I was impressed with the shot selection for the Lions and how they got to the rim. They just didn’t finish when they got there.
The Lions actually had 18 offensive rebounds, one more than Auburn, but obviously, the Tigers made more shots. I had an Over in that game and it was about to get there, but it was based on an improved offense from SELA and I think we got that.
First-year head coach Travis Ford is back on the job after several years as an analyst. He had a few good seasons, but it took a while, as he was 12-21 in Year 1 at Saint Louis, 13-15 at UMass, and 7-19 at Eastern Kentucky. He took his first Oklahoma State team to the NCAA Tournament, but that was an outlier.
I’ll take my chances with my priors and my reading on SELA here. If they have another bad offensive performance against an inferior team, then I’ll readjust at that point.
Southern Indiana at Evansville (-8.5, 142) Prediction
8 pm ET
Pick: Less than 142
I love going dumpster diving on Saturdays and really generally and that’s what we have here, as Southern Indiana heads to Evansville. When I wrote the Missouri Valley Conference in the College Basketball Betting Guide, I was pretty critical of the Aces, who lost a lot of scoring punch last season. This is a bad team, but losing two 6-foot-10 scorers is a lot to overcome.
Even with those years, it was a terrible offense last season, checking in at 280th in offense eFG% and 292nd in adjusted offensive efficiency. The team did not have a season in the top 200 in eFG% during the David Ragland era. Maybe it’s less about the ingredients and more about the chef, as he’s had a string of terrific offensive rebounding squads. In other words, I’m not expecting a lot of second chances tonight. Hell, the Aces had just 11 ORebs in a 10-point win over Indiana-Kokomo to open the season.
Southern Indiana is also bad. They opened the season with .739 points per possession against Belmont in a 72-54 loss, as they played well on defense in a game that went 73 possessions. Both teams have a 26% TO%, so they don’t value the ball much. Like Evansville, we’ve seen a series of poor offensive teams for the Screaming Eagles, as they were 363rd in the nation in eFG% last season and have been in the 300s for three straight seasons.
Both teams play at almost an average tempo, but we see the Under getting a lot of love here and that’s a bet I also agree with.
Portland State at Seattle (-10.5, 144) Prediction
10 pm ET
Pick: Portland State +10.5
Both teams experienced heavy losses this past summer, though Seattle retained the services of Will Heimbrodt and Jun Seok Yeo. Portland State is basically a new team. So, I understand the spread here on this one, but I believe it’s a bit exaggerated.
Heimbrodt and Yeo are definitely back, but the former has a 25.7% Usage Rate and only hits 44.6% on 2s and 28.6% on 3s. Yeo took more 3s than 2s and shot 29.1% on 3s and 59.1% on 2s. He’ll probably play inside a little more without Austin Maurer, but let’s see if the Gonzaga transfer can get any better. He is also a poor rebounder for his size.
My concern for Seattle is that they had some tough losses on defense. When Chris Victor has good teams, it’s because of what the Redhawks do on the defensive end. Per Torvik’s Defensive Box Plus-Minus numbers, Seattle retains their second-best defender in Heimbrodt, but loses top defender Maleek Arrington, and three other above-average guys in Maurer, Jojo Murphy, and Brayden Maldonado. Brock Felder and Maurer were also the team’s leading rebounders and that was another loss.
Jase Coburn has a lot of new faces as I mentioned, but I think he’s a great head coach. He had the program’s first 20-win season since the 2017-18 campaign and I feel he has more scoring upside on the roster this season. Portland State won on defense last year and they may face the same problem as Seattle here, but 10.5 points is a big start.