After opening the season with five straight victories, the Kansas City Chiefs return to Arrowhead Stadium riding a two-game losing streak.
The 20-3 loss to the Seattle Seahawks was a poor performance in all three phases. Kansas City’s offense responded with 399 total yards and 24 points against the Denver Broncos, but the defense gave up a late touchdown in a 28-24 loss.
The Chiefs remain in the AFC West race and are in contention for the No. 1 seed of the AFC, but they can no longer afford to lose games they expect to win.
The New York Jets are just 2-6 and have lost three straight games, but they have remained competitive. Quarterback Geno Smith is coming off a 290-yard, two-touchdown performance as the Jets score a season-high 33 points.
Kansas City must win this game. To do this convincingly, it must accomplish these three things.
Offensive key: Bring back the vertical passing game
The decline in Kansas City’s rushing production over the past two weeks has drawn a lot of discussion.
After averaging 6.3 yards per carry and rushing for 665 yards in his first five games, Kenneth Walker III has been held to 105 rushing yards on 35 carries over the last two. That’s an average of just 3.0 yards per attempt.
Some of that decline can be attributed to the execution of offensive lines and opposing defenses that conform to Kansas City’s running concepts. However, the absence of wide receiver Tyquan Thornton has also changed how defenses can play the Chiefs.
Thornton was Kansas City’s primary field-stretching receiver. Before dislocating his ankle against the Las Vegas Raiders, he caught 11 passes for 219 yards — almost 20 yards per reception. His last catch was a 55-yard catch against Cover 0 that showed exactly what he’s got: a receiver capable of making defenses pay for crowding the line of scrimmage.
Walker still rushed for 128 yards against the Los Angeles Chargers after Thornton’s injury, so losing the receiver isn’t the only explanation for the recent struggles. But as teams got more film of the Thornton-less offense, they became more comfortable bringing the safeties closer to the line and challenging the rest of Kansas City’s receivers to win downfield.
Through seven games, roughly 90% of Patrick Mahomes’ throws have traveled less than 20 yards past the line of scrimmage. Only 24 of his 232 attempts went 20 or more yards downfield, per statcasers.com.
Kansas City doesn’t need to throw deep on every possession. However, it must prove that the threat exists.
Head coach Andy Reid must create opportunities through play-action, maximum protection and pre-snap motion. Xavier Worthy is the most obvious candidate to take on more of that vertical responsibility, but Rashee Rice, Jalen Royals and Cyrus Allen should also contribute.
The goal is not just to complete a long pass. Kansas City needs to make New York’s safeties respect the possibility. If the Chiefs can connect on multiple passes of at least 20 yards, the Jets will be forced to defend more down the field.
That should create more running room for Walker and restore the balance that fueled Kansas City’s 5-0 start.
Defensive key: Sack Nation must return
Kansas City’s pass rush doesn’t live up to its nickname.
The Chiefs enter Week 9 with nine sacks, which ranks 30th in the NFL. Their 3.6% defensive sack rate is among the worst in the league.
No player better represents those struggles than defensive tackle Chris Jones.
The self-proclaimed CEO of “Sack Nation” has recorded just half a sack, three quarterback hits and one tackle for loss in seven games. During losses to Seattle and Denver, Jones failed to register a tackle, quarterback hit or pass breakup in 87 combined snaps.
Jones continues to lead double teams, and his presence can create opportunities for teammates. But those opportunities are only valuable if someone benefits from them.
Defensive end George Karaftis has been Kansas City’s most consistent pass rusher, but Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Ashton Gillotte, R. Mason Thomas, and the rest of the defensive front should win more one-on-one matchups.
Against Denver, the Chiefs forced Bo Nix into just two of his 34 dropbacks—a 6% pressure rate, the lowest by any NFL defense in a game this season.
The Jets present the perfect opportunity for the pass rush to get healthy. Smith has been sacked 23 times, and New York ranks 26th in sack rate allowed at 9.62%.
Smith played well, throwing 12 touchdowns against just three interceptions with a 104.5 passer rating. Kansas City can’t let him operate comfortably and push the ball downfield.
The defensive benchmark should be at least three sacks, with Jones directly contributing to one of them —either by recording it himself or forcing Smith into another defender.
This is the matchup where Sack Nation needs to re-emerge.
X-factor: Win on third down
The third down will connect with everything Kansas City wants to do on Sunday.
Offensively, the Chiefs converted 34 of their 85 third downs, exactly 40%. The Jets’ defense has allowed opponents to convert 41 of 100 attempts. That gives Kansas City a chance to extend drives and tire out an injury-plagued New York defensive front.
Mahomes can’t be asked to repeatedly save the offense on third-and-long. The Chiefs must use early-down runs, play-action passes, and quick completions to create manageable situations.
The goal should be to convert at least 45% of their third downs.
Defensively, Kansas City must leave the field.
The season-long numbers are respectable, with opponents converting 39.2% of their third-down attempts. But Seattle converted 11 of 16 third downs, including five situations that required at least 9 yards. Those conversions allowed the Seahawks to control the ball for nearly 36 minutes and limit Kansas City to just eight possessions.
New York’s offense has converted 37.6% of its third downs this season. That’s less than the league’s better offenses, but Smith’s experience and willingness to push the football vertically makes him dangerous if Kansas City can’t generate pressure.
Third down is where Jones and the defensive line can change the game. A sack ends a possession, improves field position, and gives Mahomes another chance to attack a Jets defense that is allowing 23.5 points per game.
Kansas City needs to win the third down on both sides by extending its own possessions and quickly ending New York’s.
The Chiefs shouldn’t need Patrick Mahomes to carry them through another four-quarter battle against a 2-6 opponent.
Kansas City must restore the threat of the deep ball and force New York’s safeties off the line of scrimmage. That would create more space for Kenneth Walker and prevent the offense from becoming predictable. On defense, Chris Jones and Sack Nation will have to take advantage of an offensive line that has already given up 23 sacks. On third down, the Chiefs must sustain their own drives while refusing to let the Jets control the clock.
If Kansas City can make multiple explosive passes, record at least three sacks and win the third-down battle, it must not only end its losing streak — it must do so convincingly.