NFL Week 9 predictions: Will Liam Coen still school Jesse Minter?

We’re previewing THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL, y’all! Be excited!

Here are some predictions for what we’ll see tonight when the 5-2 Jacksonville Jaguars take on the 4-4 Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium.

The good news is that the Ravens won’t have an NFL-caliber quarterback on the field Thursday night.

Two-time MVP Lamar Jackson (thumb) and familiar backup Tyler “Snoop” Huntley (toe) are both on injured reserve. Baltimore attempted to save its season by trading for veteran pocket passer Jacoby Brissett, but he won’t be available for the Week 9 matchup on a short week. The Jaguars will face undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano, who posted a 40.0 passer rating in his first NFL action last week. We are lucky.

The bad news is that the Ravens still have Derrick Henry.

The Yulee native rushed for the most yards (1,564) and touchdowns (16) of any NFL player against Jacksonville. Henry has six career games of 120+ rushing yards and at least 1 touchdown against the Jaguars. He had a 99-yard game in which he—

I don’t need to remind you all. It’s been 1,033 days since Henry last faced his hometown team (and the same amount of time since he suited up for the Tennessee Titans), but we all know he’s one of the few non-quarterbacks in the league who can put an offense on his shoulders.

This will be the Jaguars’ first game against Henry in a Ravens uniform. While Jacksonville will certainly miss defensive tackle DaVon Hamilton, Jackson’s absence is a bigger factor. Henry is averaging 4.5 yards per carry and has been stuffed on 16.0% of rushes with Jackson on the field this season, compared to 3.5 yards per carry and a 22.9% carry rate without Jackson, per NFL Pro.

Over the past three weeks, a span in which Jackson has played 1 offensive snap, Henry has been hit behind the line of scrimmage at the league’s highest rate (60.0%). He averaged a league-worst 0.8 yards per carry in such games this season, compared to 6.2 yards per carry when he wasn’t contacted in the backfield.

Even if the Ravens start an undrafted rookie at quarterback, the Jaguars will need a good strategy to contain wide receiver Zay Flowers… but the top priority in the defensive game plan this week should be keeping Henry from his stride.

The prediction: Derrick Henry stuffed over and over, ending up less than 50 yards

Henry’s rushing over/under prop is set at 68.5 yards on FanDuel.

On the other side of the ball, Jacksonville is as close to full strength as it can get. Trevor Lawrence runs an MVP-caliber offense; skill players take turns having breakout games; and the offensive line is doing juuuust fine.

The obvious driver of Jacksonville’s success is its head coach and offensive playcaller, Liam Coen. He’s been in a Steph Curry-like flow state for most of the season. The Jaguars have scored 30+ points in four of seven games, including each of their past two outings, and their +85 point differential leads the league by a country mile.

Ravens fans would probably like to see their head coach and defensive playcaller, Jesse Minter, be viewed as the defensive version of Coen. A young and innovative mind who can lead the locker room as well as he creates a game plan.

However, in two career meetings between a Coen offense and a Minter defense, the former coach had more success.

In Week 7 of 2024, Coen called the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offense, and Minter called the Ravens’ defense (as defensive coordinator). The Bucs converted 12/18 late downs, racked up 481 yards of offense, and scored 31 points.

In Week 11 of 2025, Coen called the Jaguars’ offense, and Minter called the Los Angeles Chargers’ defense. The Jags converted 8/15 late downs, racked up 345 yards of offense, and scored 35 points.

Is Minter really going to stop this freight train?

The prediction: Liam Coen’s offense scores 30 or more points again

Jacksonville’s team total is set at 24.5 points on FanDuel.

The Jaguars were incentivized to take Brian Thomas Jr.

As many have been quick to point out, the NFL is a “what have you done for me lately?” league. A few good games from Thomas could boost his trade value and convince another team to acquire him for significant draft capital.

But the Jaguars must want Thomas to put up strong performances, regardless of their interest in trading him. We’ve all seen what he can do on an NFL field. The best case scenario for Jacksonville isn’t “Thomas is playing well so we can trade him for a haul.” The best case scenario would be “Thomas is playing so well that he’s refined his groove and he’s helping make our offense as dangerous as possible.”

Both of his touchdowns this season have come in the redzone. According to NFL Pro, Thomas ran deep routes on 3.3 plays per game, compared to 5.1 deep routes per game in 2024 and 5.9 in 2025. He has only 3 deep targets this season and has yet to catch a catch.

This week looks like a good matchup, though. Baltimore’s defense ranks in the bottom three in completion percentage (65.1%) and EPA per attempt (0.67) allowed on downfield passes. Minter’s unit also allowed in-breaking passes to be wide open by 5+ yards of separation at a league-worst 24.8% rate. Can we get an in-depth post from BT, pretty please?

The prediction: Brian Thomas Jr. scores. his first long touchdown in 2026

Thomas’ receiving over/under prop is pegged at 12.5 yards on FanDuel. He has +550 odds to score a touchdown.

Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!