The Matchup. Side: Seahawks.
WEEK 5 RECAP: Week 5 was great out of a few things. We hit most of our big unit bets, though we just missed the top end of each ladder, posted on Discord.
I’ll break down picks of three or more units here:
Cowboys, 3 units (lost): Week 5 didn’t start well. We lost to the Cowboys, which was a complete no-show. We made some money on a Bucky Irving ladder, but Irving missed two drives with an injury, so we never reached the top rung of our ladder.
Steelers, 3 units (win): The Colts kept pace for a while, but the Steelers won by double digits.
Jets, 4 units (win): The Jets looked like they were going to explode in another game where they led most of the time, but they finally pulled through at the end of the game.
Bengals, 3 units (push): We had good luck and bad luck in this game. The Bengals led 28-10 and 31-18, but the Dolphins had what appeared to be a backdoor cover in the final seconds. Except, it was just a backdoor push as Miami’s kicker missed the extra point. So, we didn’t win a game we should have, but we pushed a game we should have lost.
Texans, 5 units (win): If only they were this easy!
Bears, 3 units (loss): I was surprised by what happened in this game. We are far away.
Broncos, 5 units (win): This game looks dicey for a while. The Broncos were down 17-10, but the Chargers turned over their horrible offensive line, which gave us good coverage because of a lost fumble at the end.
Lions, 3 units (win): Another stress-free victory.
Ravens, 5 units (win) : Mark Andrews almost blew it for the Ravens, but his teammates overcame his usual ineptitude to prevail in overtime. The only bad thing here is that we lost the Bijan Robinson stairs.
Matthew Stafford and Josh Allen ladders, 16 units (win): We had a huge night with a lot of stairs in the Bills-Rams game. Congratulations on what follows, and if you haven’t already, be sure to check out the Walter Football Discord.
By the way, some of you may not have noticed that all but two picks per week are in the Premium section. I truly apologize to those disappointed by this, but we have no choice; otherwise, we would have to close shop, and there would be no choice. With ad rates dropping as a result of our terrible economy, and AI search results preventing new people from finding this WalterFootball.com, we had to pivot in a different direction to keep the website alive. We don’t ask much – just 30 cents per day – so if you want to help us, you can sign up for WalterFootball Premium. As a bonus, you won’t see any ads. This website will be very fast and will not crash as a result of any ads.
SEATTLE OFFENSE: It was shocking to see Jaxon Smith-Njigba catch a pass against San Francisco that set up a potential Seattle victory. Then again, Smith-Njigba was sidelined with an ankle injury earlier in the quarter. It remains to be seen if he will be fully healthy. He made a big play after suffering the injury, but there’s no telling how an ankle issue will respond afterward, especially in a short week.
On the other hand, Smith-Njigba won’t have to deal with Denver’s starting cornerbacks, as Patrick Surtain II and Riley Moss are dealing with their injuries. If Smith-Njigba is healthy, the Seahawks should be able to score fairly consistently against Denver’s defense. The Broncos are chasing the quarterback at a high rate, but the Seahawks have a strong offensive line that should keep Sam Darnold upright.
I don’t expect an offensive explosion, however, as the Seahawks have a one-dimensional offense, and Denver is ranked in the top 12 against the run anyway.
DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos have been stagnant on this side of the ball for most of the year. The two exceptions came in the second half against the Rams and Jaguars, when both opponents were tired of playing at altitude.
There was a chance things could change last week as Sean Payton took over the offensive playmaking duties. However, it didn’t make much of a difference. The Broncos scored both of their touchdowns on a short field following Chargers turnovers. Denver finished with 23 points but was held to 10 for much of the second half.
The Seahawks can bring a ton of pressure, and it will create havoc for Bo Nix. It was a rough matchup for Nix, who did nothing but throw short passes. Nix used to be able to scramble under pressure, but that’s not a viable solution this year as he’s coming off a foot injury. The Seahawks are also in the seventh game against the run, so they can clamp down on JK Dobbins and RJ Harvey.
RECAP: The Broncos have had two home games so far, taking on the Rams and Jaguars. They were completely outplayed in the first half of each of those games but ended up winning because their opponents were tired of playing at altitude. I saw the same thing happening in this game. The Seahawks were just coming off a disappointing outing against the rival 49ers on Sunday, and playing a complete game of football at altitude on just three days rest could wear them down as the night wears on.
Smith-Njigba’s ankle could also be a concern. He might be okay, but there’s a chance he’ll experience some swelling afterward. Players can also aggravate their ankle injuries and be completely knocked out.
I’m siding with the Broncos in this game. I think there’s a good chance the Seahawks will run out in the second half and blow a potential lead they’ll hold at intermission. If you like the Seahawks, I’d bet on them in the first half. I, however, am not planning to bet on this pre-game because I don’t want to bet on Thursday night contests. That said, if the Seahawks lead at halftime, I’d consider a second-half bet on Denver.
Our Week 6 NFL Picks will be posted throughout the day on Tuesday. follow @walterfootball for updates.
The Motivation. Edge: Nothing.
No edges found.
The Spread Edge: Nothing.
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -4.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -1.5.
Computer Model: Seahawks -1.
The Vegas. Edge: Nothing.
Fair action.
Percentage of money in Seattle: 57% (10,000 bets)
The Trends. Side: Broncos.
Weather: Chance of rain, 52 degrees. Light wind, 10 mph.
Week 6 NFL Picks: Broncos 23, Seahawks 22
Broncos +3 (0 Units)
Over 40.5 (0 Units)