EPL Best Bets and Predictions October 17-18
Here are the best EPL bets this week:
Brighton against Crystal Palace
Sunday, 9:00 am ET
Almost half of the Premier League logged minutes on the pitch in midweek, with nine teams involved in either the Champions League, Europa League or Europa Conference League. There are mixed fortunes as usual, but for your own betting, be sure to factor in travel, fatigue and rotation schedules, so stay tuned for official team news.
Premier League Matchday 7 rolls around with Manchester City still perfect – on the field at least – and a familiar look about the top two with Arsenal three points back. However, many of the judges’ dark horses fill third and fourth in Brentford and Brighton. The latter is the first of my three best bets this weekend.
Fabian Hürzeler’s side have been the real eye-catcher in the opening exchanges this season. Top scorers with 18 goals in six rounds, while no side could beat their five conceded. Entertaining, clinical, yet organized and disciplined.
Their recent 3-0 demolition of champions Arsenal was a real statement achievement and remains the only game the Gunners have not won this season. But what I really liked was their defeat at Sunderland last weekend, a third straight Premier League win to none. A game they won despite Pascal Struijk being sent off 1-0 with just over 30 minutes remaining.
The Amex have been a real fortress once again, with the hosts winning five of their last seven league games on home soil. This includes defeats by Liverpool, Chelsea and Aston Villa as well as a win against Arsenal. The Seagulls scored 16 goals in those fixtures and kept four clean sheets, a real recipe for success.
The palace sits on a venerable looking 12th place, but I watched their 3-1 win against Nottingham Forest last weekend. They should have been out of the game before they equalized out of the blue late in the first half, and the Eagles’ only win came at bottom-of-the-table Fulham, who were winless.
Although both sides are in European action on Thursday, Brighton are at home to Lithuanian minnows Kauno Žalgiris while Palace have a really tough trip to Lyon. Before that visit to France, the London side had won just two of their last 10 road trips, losing five.
Former manager Oliver Glasner was well-coached, disciplined and difficult to break down at Palace, but that is not the case at the moment as Pierre Sage finds his feet in the Premier League. Only three sides have scored more than their 12 goals, but none have a higher expected goals against number.
Pascal Groß has bounced back in the years since rejoining Brighton from Borussia Dortmund. The 35-year-old registered three goals and four assists, with Maxim De Cuyper also contributing four goals. In addition, both players offer great set-piece delivery. Their side were a real threat with targets like Lewis Dunk and Luka Vuskovic, especially against a Palace side who scored a league-high 36 attempts from such situations.
Brighton are priced at -180 to win it, but with home advantage and their current free-scoring mood, they could get an early goal to break it open. So, I look at a multi-goal margin of victory and take the -1 Asian Handicap at -110, meaning we get the safety net of a full refund if the home side wins by just one goal.
EPL Best Bet: Brighton vs. Crystal Palace — Brighton -1 Asian Handicap at -110.
Leeds United vs Manchester United
Sunday, 9:00 I’m E.T
A hostile Elland Road on a Sunday afternoon against old rivals is the last place under pressure Michael Carrick will choose to go in an attempt to get the win he may need to save his job. The home side will be rested, revived and ready for the visit of the Red Devils who endured a miserable trip to Spain in midweek.
It was bad enough to concede the opening goal after 47 seconds before slipping to a 2-0 defeat at Atletico Madrid, where Leny Yoro was sent off. Defender Lisandro Martinez upped the ante even further by calling out ownership for a lack of investment during the summer transfer window.
Not quite right for Carrick, whose side showed a failure to hold the lead, struggling to play against 10 men, or to compete when they were a man light and a regular concession of late goals. All this means that six games into the new season he has guided his team to their worst start in 40 years, the form that brought the legendary Sir Alex Ferguson to the club.
That midweek slog against Diego Simeone’s men adds to the strain on a side regularly rattled and beaten by their opponents. Recent reports have shown that United were outscored by 4 miles at Fulham and 2.85 miles against Tottenham. Expect more of the same on Sunday.
The Red Devils are winless in their opening four road trips this season, losing not only in midweek but also against newly promoted Hull on the opening weekend. The contrast in Leeds’ home form is striking. Now unbeaten in eight games, winning five and stretching into March.
Daniel Farke has built a strong, athletic and aggressive side at Elland Road. Very tidy, a huge threat from set pieces, but also has great technical ability and has a striker in Dominic Calvert-Lewin back to his best.
Leeds lost their first game of the season at the weekend but made the champions Arsenal fight back after taking an early second-half lead. Fans and managers will be heartbroken, but all that will be forgotten with victory over their arch-rivals on Sunday.
The Yorkshiremen won the last meeting in April and could follow up here in plus money. Only the names on the record make the odds what they are. It’s classic value against a big name that isn’t currently playing like one.
EPL Best Bet: Leeds United vs. Manchester United — Leeds to win @ +140.
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal
Sunday, 11:30 I’m E.T
My final bet of the weekend will be familiar to readers of this column. But I have to go in again when this is a proven way to take Arsenal from -167 to +160. Yes, it’s the win for nothing, a bet that has already won an impressive six times this season.
The Gunners’ only blip in a perfect start to the new campaign was the 3-0 reverse at Brighton. They responded last week with a gutsy win over Leeds, and it was business as usual on Wednesday as they cruised to a 3-0 Champions League victory over Lille. They allowed the French side just four attempts on goal, none of which were on target and just three touches in their penalty area.
Five wins from six in the Premier League have warmed them to pacesetters Manchester City, ahead of any points drop. A solid 10 goals were scored with talisman Bukayo Saka looking back at his best and at the other end a league joint-low five conceded, but neither side beat their expected goals against of 4.66.
Forest sit 15th but only three points from the bottom of the table. I watched them at Crystal Palace last weekend in a game they should have won but lost 3-1 after missing chance after chance.
What I saw there was the reason Oliver Glasner’s men failed to score in any of their opening four games on home soil. Lost twice to Leeds (once in the league, once in the cup) and newly promoted Coventry.
Forest have also failed to score against this Arsenal defense in their last four attempts. The last time they managed to hit the back of the net against the Gunners was an 89th-minute consolation strike in January 2024.
Both teams to score Hindi is a safer play at -110, but the strength of depth at Mikel Arteta’s disposal means I find it hard to see his side not scoring here, especially given how fragile Forest’s defense is.
I feel these games between European fixtures are a case of finishing work and leaving town. Expect Arsenal to dominate the territory, limit Forest to low-quality chances, and make a professional win come to nothing.
EPL Best Bet: Nottingham Forest vs. Arsenal – Arsenal to win to nil @ +160.