Now that five weeks of the NFL season have passed, it’s time to rank and tier the AFC opponents based on who the Kansas City Chiefs should fear for the rest of the season. Let’s start with the contenders:
Tier 1: Can win AFC
To me, four teams can realistically win the AFC: the Chiefs, Bills, Jaguars, and Ravens. Of those three, the Bills remain the scariest. Buffalo’s offense remains strong, with quarterback Josh Allen, their run game, and improved weapons. Buffalo’s defensive line has more juice this year with the emergence of Gregory Rousseau and Deone Walker. However, Buffalo’s back 7 is incredibly leaky and they can sink.
The Jaguars are 17-5 since Liam Coen took over as head coach and are a legitimate threat. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence is playing elite football, and their offense is humming with deep supporting weapons. Defensively, their talent isn’t overwhelming, but it’s well-coached and has stars like pass rusher Josh Hines-Allen and cornerback Travis Hunter. Their roster has holes, but they have top-10 units on both sides of the ball and are well coached.
Baltimore has been an interesting watch for five weeks. Lamar Jackson played well, and new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle did a great job designing the run game and arming Zay Flowers. Defensively, their front has more juice with the signing of Trey Hendrickson and improvements from Tavius Robinson, Travis Jones, and Mike Green. However, like Buffalo, their secondary can leak, and they still have skill position issues to fix. This is also a new staff in its first year, so it’s hard to gauge how they’ll do in the playoffs until we see them there, but they have enough talent to be a threat.
Tier 2: Can win playoff game(s).
You could definitely make an argument for the Bengals in Tier 1. Their offense remains elite with quarterback Joe Burrow, and wideouts Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The addition of Dexter Lawrence and Boye Mafe dramatically improved their defensive line. However, their linebacker and safety play is still terrible and I don’t think they can get that down for three games in the postseason.
New England has been strange to start the year, but they seem to be getting in shape. Their defense has carried over its positive momentum from the postseason, and the offense is starting to look as explosive as it did last year. They will get wide receiver AJ Brown soon, which should make the offense even better. I still doubt the New England vs. elite teams, but they have enough talent to be scary.
The Broncos have been a rough watch all year, but it’s still time for them to get into a rhythm and play better. Their defense is still very good in pass rush and playing man coverage. They can be dangerous, but I don’t trust offense at all, and the vibes seem off there. They can’t run the ball, and Bo Nix can’t see it and doesn’t move much after his injuries. It seems like their best shot was last year.
Houston is 1-4, so it’s surprising to see them here, but I still think they’re a dangerous team. Quarterback CJ Stroud is playing great football, and their defense is still very good, even if they haven’t played at the level they did a year ago. However, they played the Bills, Bengals, and Cowboys, three top offensive units, that will wear your defense down. Houston has generally picked up later and their schedule is getting lighter, so I expect them to hang around in the AFC picture.
Tier 3: Competitive regular season teams
Tier 3 teams are fairly competitive regular-season teams that can play spoiler for seeding purposes, but probably don’t have the juice as playoff teams. The Steelers are the top team in this tier. They trench talent on both sides of the line of scrimmage, but their secondary has played poorly, and quarterback Aaron Rodgers is too old to play well for 17 games.
The Raiders started 3-0 and played well against the Chiefs, but the cracks showed against the Patriots. Their run game isn’t explosive, they lack wide receiving talent, and their pass rush outside of Maxx Crosby is shaky. They will be a competitive 7-8 win team, and three of those wins have come right out of the gate.
Cleveland started 3-1 and showed more spirit than expected, but it was still a Deshaun Watson-led offense, and they had one of the worst games in the NFL. Like the Raiders, they have reached their peak and are likely to decline going forward.
The Colts are a sad situation because they already traded their 2027 1st-round pick and they are not a good team. Their offense is fine, but not the unit that set offensive records last year. Their pass rush is bad and they are bleeding too many passing yards in coverage. They are just not a good team and I expect them to pack it in soon.
The Jets are playing hard and better than a year ago, but they are still limited in talent, and their coaching staff is not elite. But the Chiefs game against the Jets should be more competitive than I expected.
Tier 4: Mock drafts are now being created
One of the shocks of the NFL season is how dead the Chargers are, but they are a terrible team. Their defense is good, but not as good as when Jesse Minter led it. Their guilt is abominable. Their entire staff is likely to be fired and the players seem to have checked out. Nothing is fine.
We saw the Chiefs play the Dolphins, and while they played hard, they lacked any real talent. Hard to see them winning more than 2-3 games.
Titans is a terrific watch with a terrific offense. Their staff is likely fired after their first year and they could have a new quarterback. It was a train wreck in Tennessee.