The Minnesota Vikings head to Ford Field this week for a pivotal NFC North matchup against the 4-2 Detroit Lions. A win could put the Vikings in an early stranglehold on the NFL’s best division, especially since they could get two of their three division wins on the road. The loss will give skeptics more fodder to call the Vikings “cheats” for another week. They will also be encouraged by the fact that the Vikings’ next three opponents have a combined 15-5 record.
I revealed this earlier this week, so no need to repeat the grievances. For the fourth straight week, the Vikings’ offense will face another statistically formidable defense – albeit one that is getting healthier. Safety Brian Branch returned last week against the Packers, and Kerby Joseph’s 21-day practice window after returning from the PUP list appears to have opened as well. However, he could be a week or two away from game action.
Regardless, this Lions defense is not good. They are dead last (32nd) in total yards allowed per game, last in passing yards allowed, and 26th in points allowed per game. They’re also no better than 25th in red zone conversions allowed, success rate allowed, and EPA per game. If there are bright spots, they are a respectable 12th in rushing yards allowed and have gotten to the quarterback as often as the Vikings this season, with 21 sacks. I was surprised, Aidan Hutchinson, or not.
Disappointingly, there is clear merit to the argument that the Vikings’ offense was “close.” Big plays in the passing game were missed, either by missing downfield shots or by not finishing them. And yes, some of it has to do with Kevin O’Connell’s deliberate transition to a more run-oriented, time-of-possession attack in 2026.
But none of that matters. The official ledger is what it is, and it’s rotten.
And here’s another post by Warren Sharp to drive home the point:
It’s scary, like a reversal of what we went through on defense in 2022. Sure, things are ugly, but give it time. Check out our record! Once the defense figures this out, everything will be fine. Yes, sure. Last time I checked, the goal was to win the Super Bowl, miss the playoffs and bow 6-3 to the Seahawks, 49ers, or Rams in the wild-card or divisional round. And right now, as the calendar turns to November, that’s exactly what we’re looking at.
The Vikings need to wake up and finally put 30+ points on the board against someone. Will they do it? As I mentioned in my last write-up, I am officially in the “I’ll believe it when I see it” mindset. I’m done predicting a turnaround and looking foolish in these weekly previews. To quote Michael Scott: “Fool me once, strike one. But fool me twice…strike three.”
So we are in a holding pattern. We are facing another formidable defense. The weather won’t be a factor, and early in the week, the offense looks almost completely healthy again. Let’s see. Hopefully, the one week I don’t predict it will happen is when it actually does.
As usual, this is the main event. From the start, Brian Flores struggled against a Lions offense led by Ben Johnson. The Vikings are 0-4 in those games, with the Lions never scoring fewer than 30 points and averaging 404 yards per game. Once they split, he got the better of both the Lions’ offense and Ben Johnson in Chicago.
Last year in Detroit, Flores’ strategy was clearly focused on stopping Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery first. It worked. The Lions managed just 65 yards on 20 carries (3.25 per carry). Jared Goff threw for 284 yards and two TDs, but he was under pressure all day and was sacked five times for 44 yards in the wrong direction. The Lions are 5-for-17 on third down. Flores mixed up the pressures and kept Goff off the entire game.
Then, at US Bank Stadium in Week 17, the Lions were playing for their season opener, and Flores unveiled his masterpiece in front of a nationwide audience. That’s saying something, given how far this season has come. With no help on offense, the Vikings’ defense dominated in a game unlike any I remember. Neither Gibbs nor Montgomery managed more than 2.5 yards per carry. Goff panicked and started crying. He was sacked five times and threw two INTs. It was followed by three fumbles. Overall, Flores’ unit forced six turnovers, and the Lions missed the playoffs. It’s a pity.
As I admitted earlier this week that I should at least listen to the national media’s skepticism this time around, the consensus view I see is that the Lions will expose the Vikings in this one. It would have been fine if the previous two games I just detailed didn’t happen. The narrative in this series has obviously changed. As bad as the Vikings’ offense is, I’m sure they’ll surpass the 161 total yards (51 passing/65 yards on a Jordan Addison scoring run alone) we saw in Week 17.
Listen, the Lions offense is undoubtedly dangerous, if not as good as it was in the Ben Johnson era. They lead in points per game (30.7), yards per game (397.3), passing yards per game (282.3), yards per game (6.0), success rate, EPA passing per play, and red zone TD rate. They are really good. If anyone can drop 21+ on our D and force our offense to look at least mediocre to win, it’s them. But I can’t shake what happened in last year’s Week 17 game, and this Vikings defense is better now.
If the Vikings lose this one, cries of “cheating” and predictions that 6-0 will become 6-4 before Thanksgiving will be everywhere. KOC and the offense need to be angry and fed up with the criticism and negative vibes. They better be. The desire to drop 30+ points must be overwhelming. But being angry and wanting to prove the haters wrong is one thing. Actually doing it differently. As much as I want it to happen and as much as the fanbase needs it, I’m unwavering in my position: “I’ll believe it when I see it.”
That’s the bad news. The good news is that defense and special teams are also important. And that’s what I believe will be the difference in this one. The offense is adequate, aided by the useful field position gifted by D/ST. Will Thrill (who else?) win as the clock expires.