Week 4 Observations – Definitely Maybe

The Minnesota Vikings’ 15-10 victory over the winless Miami Dolphins at US Bank Stadium on Sunday prompted a variety of emotional reactions.

If you had told me to turn the game off at the end of the 3rd quarter and asked for my thoughts, my response would have been very different from how I feel right now, writing this article.

Fortunately, the 4th quarter happened, offering some hope that the Vikings’ struggling offense might finally turn around. The key word in that last sentence is “can.” Time will tell, but this is an invaluable boost of hope after a dismal stretch.

Kyler Murray was 13 of 14 for 120 yards and no sacks on the Vikings’ final two drives. In a surprising development, that also coincided with the decision to put Murray in an environment where he was more comfortable.

Two things can happen at the same time.

I’m not going to sit here and pretend that injuries and the awful weather in Chicago in Week 2 didn’t play into the offense’s poor showing so far. That’s definitely a contributing factor.

But it’s also fair to say that Kevin O’Connell hasn’t done Murray and co any favors in the early part of the season. They clearly didn’t put the offense in the best position to succeed. Receivers haven’t been effectively opened up, a traditional KOC strength, and Murray is trying to play in a system that doesn’t maximize his strengths. It’s a bit confusing, to be honest.

But better late than never, I guess. Despite all this, the Vikings are 4-0, 3-0 in the NFC, and 2-0 in the division. If the Murray we see for the rest of the season is the improved, more comfortable version we saw in the 4th quarter on Sunday, with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Mason returning, this offense has tremendous potential. We’re certainly not out of the woods yet, but it seems like something may have clicked in KOC that could end this offense. We can hope.

Break down the other highs and lows of an (unexpected) nail-biter, right?

Will Reichard, truly the Most Interesting Man in the World. The baby-faced assassin with the extravagant, Fabioesque hair went viral for an on-air visual during the broadcast showing that, as of Week 2, he had scored 32 (!) of the 44 points scored. A few minutes later, that number was 35. Not much else needs to be said about Will the Thrill. The man is amazing.

Dallas Turner, Lawrence Taylor Impersonator. Turner’s early Defensive Player of the Year resume got even stronger Sunday, with two sacks, five pressures and one turnover. He now has 5.5 sacks, 28 QB pressures, and 14 QB hits in just four games. I certainly thought Turner would improve this year, but being on pace for 23 sacks after the first month exceeded even the loftiest of expectations.

TJ Hockenson, Reception Machine. In my preseason Vikings fantasy preview article, I mentioned that I expected Hockenson to exceed the incredibly average expectations of the experts’ consensus comfortably. The main reason is simple: History shows that Kyler Murray loves to throw to tight ends. that’s all. He absolutely loved it Sunday, hauling in 13 receptions for 119 yards. If he stays healthy, he’ll have his best season since 2023.

Myles Price, All-Pro. If September and early October are any indication, Price will run with first-team All-Pro honors. The only question is whether it will be at kick returner, punt returner, or both.

This Team’s Luck, So Far. You are exactly what your record says you are, but that doesn’t mean you should ignore the breaks that come your way. The Vikings benefited from a disproportionate number of high-leverage, game-changing penalties by opponents, along with an abundance of incredibly lucky breaks on Sunday. Chris Bell’s foot was out of bounds by about 1/8 of an inch costing the Dolphins a touchdown. Blake Cashman rubs Ollie Gordon II’s jersey to get knocked down by contact, nullifying another big play. Ivan Pace Jr. decided. to not trim his nails before the game to avoid a costly roughing-the-kicker penalty.

We have seen similar films before, for example, in 2022 and 2017. The idea is that at the end of the season, the offense will find its foundation and be more dangerous than the unit led by Case Keenum, while the defense will be in another galaxy from Ed Donatell’s version. We won’t just need breaks; we will be good enough to overcome them even when they fall the opponents’ way in decent numbers. That’s the hope, at least.

Vikings defense. I know it feels weird to put a unit that gave up just 10 points to an NFL team in the “good” category, but the bar has been set so high the past two weeks against better offenses that I have to dial back the excitement a bit. That was largely because the run defense allowed Ollie Gordon II to rush for 100 yards on just nine carries. This comes after holding D’Andre Swift and Bucky Irving to 2.8 and 3.1 yards per carry, respectively, over the past two weeks. Not sure what the deal is with that, since they don’t have to deal with an explosive passing game either. And, as mentioned, there’s also the down-by-contact running play and the long touchdown reception called back. Long-term level of concern: .001 out of 10.

Isaiah Rodgers and James Pierre. The under-the-radar signings of the past two offseasons have been spectacular. When you don’t really notice a cornerback and their name isn’t mentioned often, it can be a very good thing. PFF graded them 70.9 and 76.1, respectively, against the Dolphins. That ranked #2 and #3 on defense behind Dallas Turner.

Ryan Van Demark and Joe Huber. Both called into action unexpectedly and had strong showings. With his 46% snap share replacing Christian Darrisaw, Van Demark logged a 69.4 PFF grade. Huber played almost the entire game (91%) and earned a 50.0 PFF grade, which doesn’t seem to match up from what I can see. Looks fine to me. I hope I’m right, because while Van Demark will likely have to make another start, Huber is (for now) set to be the starter at left guard for the rest of the regular season, because…

THE UNHUMOR

The Injury of Donovan Jackson. Terrible news. Jackson played at an elite level in Year 2, especially in pass protection, where PFF ranked him 7th out of 74 qualifying guards. The good news is, as of this writing, it appears he could be back for the playoffs. Either way, it’s a huge loss. Not sure what the plan will be moving forward, if Huber’s job is for the rest of the season or a trade is on the horizon, similar to Cam Robinson in 2024. Either way, I wish Jackson the fastest recovery so he can resume his great career as soon as possible.

The Freakin’ Penalties. After Week 2, I praised the KOC for getting the Vikings to play smart, clean football. I officially retract that statement. The last two weeks have been an unmitigated disaster. After recording nine penalties for 95 yards against the Buccaneers, the Vikings weren’t done stepping on the rakes, committing 11 (!) for 85 yards in the friendly confines of US Bank Stadium against the Dolphins. There are too many unforgivable false starts and construction errors. Whether you are in training, starter or not, you should do better. This stuff might fly against teams with a combined 0-8 record, but it will bite you against better competition, which is coming soon.

Harrison Smith. This one hurts because he’s one of my favorite Vikings ever, but you gotta call it like it is. Smith had a rough day against the Dolphins. He looked out of position on the lucky Chris Bell overturned touchdown and failed to bring down Gordon on another long run. Hopefully it’s rust and that he’s working his way back into football shape after missing the entire offseason.

It’s not hyperbole to say that the fate of the 2026 Vikings depends on whether the Kyler Murray we saw in the 4th quarter is the one we’ll see moving forward: comfortable, confident, and playing fast. If it is, barring catastrophic injuries, the sky may be the limit for this team. If not, we have to temper our expectations, 4-0 or not. The schedule gets rough after the bye, and the offense must do its part. The group of Brian Flores, Will Reichard, and Myles Price can’t do it alone. Well, actually… okay, no, no, they can’t.

The KOC, Kyler Murray, and the offense officially turned on Sunday? Sure maybe.

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