Fantasy Trade Targets Week 5: Sorry, Nabers, We Gotta Move

Do you have a guy who delivered a surprising Week 4 score, and now you don’t know what to do with him? You just might find that player in the list below.

We’ve got some players with potentially inflated value, some who might look inflated but aren’t, and a tight end who’s trying to give you trust issues.

Week 5 Buys

Week 5 Sells

Buy These Fantasy Trade Targets

Did Buffalo’s TE fool us with his hot start or just get unlucky since then?

Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills

Kincaid came out firing this season, immediately rewarding anyone who overlooked the injury history by racking up 18.0 and 22.5 PPR points the first two weeks. But then he went quiet.

Kincaid caught just two balls for 38 yards in the win over the Chargers and then dipped to 1 catch for 7 in the loss to the Patriots. He has totaled only 5 targets over the past two games after garnering 6 in the opener and 8 in Week 2.

So what’s he doing on this side of the list?

Strange Offensive Plan Limited Recent Opportunities

First, let’s look beyond the target totals. We do find that Kincaid’s route share dipped a bit from 65.7% over the first two games to 56.1% the past two weeks. Should that alarm you?

Nah. Turns out it’s only a one-game blip. Kincaid ran a route on 71% of Josh Allen’s Week 3 dropbacks, but then just 42.9% in Sunday’s loss to the Pats.

According to Pro Football Focus, the Bills ran more “11” personnel (one TE, one RB, three WRs) than usual against New England. The game found them uncharacteristically trailing at various points, the run game limited, and Buffalo well behind in time of possession.

More 11 still seems like an odd plan, though, especially in a game that saw lead WR D.J. Moore leave in the second quarter (shoulder injury). You wanna take Kincaid off the field more in favor of the Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, and Joshua Palmer package?

Shockingly, it didn’t work.

Josh Allen followed passer ratings of 130.5 and 121.4 the first two weeks with 54.0 against the Chargers and 89.6 vs. New England.

Do You Think They Suddenly Fell Out of Love with Kincaid?

Zoom out, and we get a better picture of how much the Bills like to use Kincaid in the passing game.

Kincaid drew 0.30 targets per route over the first two weeks of this season. That would sit behind only Trey McBride among TEs if extended and mark a career high for Kincaid, so we can’t expect that number to stay at that level. But it’s a whole lot closer to his previous rates than to the past two weeks.

• 2025: 0.27 (first among TEs who saw at least 10 targets)
• 2024: 0.28 (fourth among 10+ target TEs; first among those with 30+)

Those happen to be the two years Joe Brady spent as OC before elevating to the head job this season. Kincaid also spent most of that span playing through a PCL injury.

2026 Ceiling Remains High

So the role remains good. Kincaid’s 61.0% route share through four weeks ranks just 22nd among TEs, but it’s ahead of his 44.2% across 12 games in 2025 and 57.7% over 13 games in 2024.

Kincaid’s average depth of target has also increased throughout his young career.

• 2023: 6.5 yards
• 2024: 8.3
• 2025: 9.3
• 2026: 11.8

This year’s rate leads all TEs who have seen more than 3 targets. The further downfield those looks go, the more challenging they are to complete. That could certainly lead to some variation in weekly target and reception counts. But it also increases the value of those targets and enhances the production.

Kincaid has increased his yards per catch every season, is working on a career-best 78.9% receiving-success rate, and is averaging nearly 20 more yards per game than last year, even after the two down weeks.

His expected fantasy points per game sit just 18th at the position right now, but Kincaid ranked fifth in that category after two weeks.

Expect the rest of his season to rebound closer to that range, and go get him before that rebound begins.

Matthew Golden, WR, Green Bay Packers

This one’s not easy for me to write up, because I basically spent the offseason passing on Golden over lingering doubt for his prospect profile. But I can’t ignore the usage and situation so far.

You might look at a guy ranked 16th among WRs in PPR points per game after finishing the summer with a WR49 ADP and see a classic sell candidate. But Golden’s actually scoring under expectation so far, and I’m not sure why that usage would change.

Production Hasn’t Caught Up to Opportunity

One reason Golden fits as a potential buy: It’s quite likely the manager who has him doesn’t fully believe in the player’s production so far.

Golden’s weekly PPR finishes have gone:

Looks like your typically volatile speed receiver, right? And that last finish would have landed even lower if Golden hadn’t included a TD amid his otherwise unimpressive 3-21 stat line.

But the second-year wideout actually sits eighth among WRs in expected PPR points per game so far. That’s because he has seen the position’s ninth-most targets, 5 more than higher-scoring teammate Christian Watson and 13 more than any other Packer.

The latter gap is key to why we can believe in continued production.

Golden Has Room to Improve … 

Let’s start here: Golden’s working on just a 48.6% catch rate. Why? Drops have been part of it. PFF has charged Golden with a drop in each game and an 18.2% drop rate overall.

That’s way up vs. last season, when they charted just 1 drop among Golden’s 46 targets (2.9%). It’s also nearly double his career drop rate across three colleg seasons (9.4%). So there’s reason to believe drops won’t remain a significant issue.

Another problem has been the proximity of those targets.

Golden 68.6% rate of catchable targets this season ranks 78th among 96 WRs who have seen 10+ targets, according to Fantasy Points Data. That’s well short of Watson’s rate (83.3%, 29th). It’s also well under Golden’s own rookie-year rate of 78.6%, which ranked 40th among 90 WRs who garnered 40+ targets.

Jordan Love’s not new, and Golden’s aDOT sits less than a yard deeper this year (14.1) than last (13.2). So there’s reason to believe that area can improve as well.

… But He Doesn’t Even Need to

Of course, both of those factors could remain just the same, and the Packers will still need to keep looking his way.

Green Bay has no discernible running game so far: 

• 32nd in carries and yards
• 31st in yards per rush
• Still no clarity on when Josh Jacobs will be allowed to return

And Jayden Reed’s done for the year after neck surgery. So there’s Watson, Golden, Kraft (the guy who’s 13 targets behind Golden at the moment), and then Skyy Moore sits fourth.

As long as Golden stays healthy, plenty of throws will keep flying his way. And the downfield nature of those throws will keep the scoring efficiency high when they’re completed.

See if you can acquire the second-year wideout now before four straight weeks of shootout potential reveal to your league mate that Golden’s a fringe WR1:

• vs. Bears
• vs. Cowboys
• at Lions
• vs. Panthers

The Packers faced the toughest schedule for WR scoring over the first four weeks.

Michael Wilson, WR, Arizona Cardinals

Wilson might not seem like a player you could reasonably buy right now, after he logged WR4 and WR16 PPR finishes the past two weeks.

Who’s selling a wideout off 30 targets in two weeks?

Maybe no one. But if you don’t at least try right now, then you might truly run out of time.

Wilson Hasn’t Even Met Expectations Yet

First, those two strong weeks still sit close enough to a slower start that they might balance out for some current managers.

Wilson finished just 33rd and 81st among WRs in PPR scoring the first two weeks, drawing a mere 7 targets in each game and totaling 7 receptions over that span.

If you held him through all four weeks, it’s reasonable to wonder which set of results you should believe in.

Well, Arizona believes in the fourth-year WR enough to have him ranking:

• Fourth at the position in route rate
• 12th in target share
• Ninth in air-yards share
• Seventh in expected PPR points per game

Similar to Matthew Golden, Wilson’s sitting in a range (20th in PPR points per game) that might seem above what we should expect based on ADP. But that scoring sits well under his mid-WR1 usage.

That usage aligns with how Arizona deployed him over the second half of last season, even though the Cardinals sport a new coaching staff. And it follows the three-year, $75 million extension he signed just before the start of the season.

But Why Buy Now?

That’s the pretty simple case for liking Wilson’s fantasy outlook. But why make a run at him this week instead of waiting for a down performance? The Week 5 matchup.

Arizona hosts the Lions this Sunday. You might remember Detroit’s cameo in Tetairoa McMillan’s breakout performance last Sunday night. Or perhaps you caught their earlier work:

• 10-182 to Chris Olave in the opener
• 10-144-1 to Bills WRs not named D.J. Moore after Moore left Week 2 early
• 10-107-1 to Garrett Wilson in Week 3

No defense has yielded more receptions to WRs this season, only the Texans have allowed more PPR points to the position, and just three teams are providing a larger WR-scoring boost, according to our adjusted fantasy points allowed.

So you could wait beyond Week 5. But you might miss out on a Wilson explosion, and then watch that potential “buy” window close altogether.

How Do Last Week’s ‘Buys’ Look?

Let’s look back at our Trade Target recommendations from the past two weeks and see how we’d treat those players now …

Week 4 report

• Brown had a weird Week 4 that included a meager 10 rushing yards (on 9 carries) and 11 catches. We knew the Jacksonville matchup was bad for rushing. And Brown didn’t score a TD in the game. He’s still worth looking into as a buy.
• I would be shocked if you can buy McMillan at a non-exorbitant price after his absurd 14-192-2 line against the Lions. I know I wouldn’t be selling McMillan for anything short of a lot right now.
• Williams had his best outing of the season after last week’s buy call. That 6-102 didn’t include a TD, though, so he might still be available at a reasonable price. Just don’t overpay. He’ll always be volatile.

Week 3 report

• Pickens might’ve lowered his price with a season-low 2 catches, but the condensed Week 5 makes him more difficult to get.
• Washington also might’ve lowered his price with a putrid 1-catch outing at Cincinnati. That’s not enough to change our opinion of him, so buy if you get the chance.
• I’m still on board with acquiring Warren overall, but be wary of such a move this week. He’s coming off two strong outings but might have to welcome Rico Dowdle back to the work share for Week 5.

Sell These Players

This first one might hurt, but it’s for your own good.

Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants

How did you experience Nabers’ 6-112-1 receiving line in Week 4?

Did it happen on your bench because the previous two weeks scared you off playing him, and now you’re vowing to never make that mistake again? Did you stick by him because of the matchup and reap the benefits?

In either case, you should view that strong weak as an opportunity to get out of the 2026 Giants Experience.

Too Much Volatility to Make This Fun

Let’s start this section by looking at Jameis Winston’s numbers across his three appearances this season:

If you want, you can tell yourself that Winston struggled against the Rams because he came in cold after Jaxson Dart’s injury. And then you can blame his limited Week 3 on the rain.

Set things up that way, and it’s probably not hard to convince yourself that Nabers will keep helping you now that he and his new QB have settled in. But don’t ignore the risk factors.

1. Last week’s numbers came against a bad pass defense. The Cardinals sit just 31st in pass DVOA, ahead of only the Cowboys. They’re adding the sixth-largest boost to QB scoring so far and yielding the league’s fourth-most points.
2. Winston still didn’t play all that well. His 2 INTs last week give the Arizona D 3 for the season. Winston ranked 19th for the week in NextGenStats’ completion percentage above expectation at minus-1.1. He now ranks 34th in that category for the season among 37 qualifiers.
3. Nabers still presents health risk. Remember when our guy aggravated his shoulder injury in Week 2 at L.A., and we all got reminded that we brushed aside the fact that he dealt with a partially torn labrum in the offseason? Nabers’ issues with that shoulder date back to 2023 at LSU. And he’s just this week more than a year removed from the ACL tear that ended his 2025 and presented offseason complications.

Even if there were nothing to worry about with Winston or an offense that ranks a mere 20th in pass attempts, 21st in passing yards, 24th in passing TDs, and 25th in pass DVOA, Nabers continues to operate with a couple of risky joints.

Sure, trade him away now and you might watch another good outing at Washington in Week 5 help your annoying league mate. Or maybe you’ll watch Nabers streak open toward the end zone while Winston underthrows him for his third pick of the day.

That type of outing could hit any given week, and it’s at least as likely as Winston and Nabers both proving helpful the rest of the way.

You don’t need to sell the wideout now for whatever lackluster price you can find. But his big Week 4 makes this a good time to see if you can find a strong return.

Ollie Gordon, RB, Miami Dolphins

If Malik Nabers’ Week 4 helped wallpaper over some issues, Gordon’s might have been downright fraudulent.

The Miami back seemed to make us skeptics look stupid, especially when you consider that his 100 yards and a TD came against a tough Minnesota defense. But you don’t have to look much closer to see through the mirage.

Gordon got most of his Week 4 production via 53-yard carry early in the third quarter and then a 12-yard TD later in the quarter.

I’m not going to subtract those runs and then give you his “yeah, but” yards per carry. It’s bad general practice to remove a player’s best plays and none of his worst, and then judge the resulting average.

Instead, I’ll highlight that he carried only 9 times in a game that found his team running more than throwing and never trailing by more than 9 points. Nine carries and 2 targets is simply not the workload of a fantasy RB you want to use.

Now let’s get more specific with the issues.

His Situation Stinks

Gordon showed out on few opportunities, but his team lost the time of possession battle by more than 18 minutes: Vikings 39:11, Dolphins 20:49. For the season, Miami has run the league’s fewest offensive plays and scored 9 fewer points than any other team.

That obviously limits the opportunity for everyone, and Gordon’s sharing that lackluster backfield role.

Jaylen Wright came off a one-week foot injury to run close to Gordon in usage:

We’ll see whether Wright claims more work going forward, but Gordon ranked 17th among RBs in snap share for Week 4, 25th in carry share, and 22nd in route share.

Combine all that with the league’s worst offense, and you’re getting a guy you hope can reach usability.

But What If Gordon Earned More Work?

Sure, we can watch this week and beyond to see if Gordon’s play against Minnesota impressed coaches enough to garner him a larger backfield share. But that game’s production looks like an outlier vs. his career before last week.

 Gordon entered the week trailing Wright in …

• Rush yards over expected per attempt
• Yards after contact per attempt
• Missed tackles forced per attempt
• Rushing success rate

… among other categories.

Gordon’s sitting on 3.5 yards per carry and 3.8 yards per reception for his young NFL career after arriving as a sixth-round pick with a 31st-percentile 40 time.

Lackluster player, terrible situation, sell if you find an opportunity.

Devaughn Vele, WR, New Orleans Saints

Vele’s toe-tap TD in garbage time of the Monday night loss to the Falcons was beautiful. And it might have opened you a sell window.

That play completed a 6-54-1 receiving line that landed Vele 15th among PPR wideouts for the week. He now sits 22nd among WRs in PPR points per game on the season, with 5+ catches in three of four games, a pair of TDs, and 31 targets, tied for 13th at the position.

Now let’s get to why you shouldn’t believe in any of that.

Saints’ High-Volume Start Inflates the Numbers

New Orleans leads the league by 15 pass attempts through four weeks, but the team ranks a mere seventh in neutral pass rate, according to RBSDM.com.

The elevated attempt totals can be traced to the Saints losing three times and even coming from behind in their lone victory.

Despite tying for 13th among WRs in targets, Vele ranks just 48th at the position in target share. That means any decline in team passing volume will likely bring his target totals down, perhaps by a lot.

Bigger Problem Looms for Vele

Another issue that will face the fourth-year receiver at some point is the impending return of first-round rookie Jordyn Tyson.

He has missed the first four games with a hamstring injury, and there’s no clear return date for Tyson yet. That’s what makes this a good time to shop Vele.

Once the Saints publicize Tyson’s return plan, you can expect any fantasy manager who’s paying attention to apply an expiration date to Vele’s production.

Get ahead of that news by selling this week, and you can also avoid an challenging string of matchups before the Week 8 bye.

According to our adjusted fantasy points allowed, the Saints faced the ninth-easiest WR schedule through the first four weeks. Weeks 5-7 find that schedule ranking 21st, starting with this week’s difficult spot against Minnesota.

How Do Last Week’s ‘Sells’ Look?

Let’s look back at our sell recommendations from the past two weeks and how we’d treat those players now …

Week 4 report

• Jones wants you to sell him. That’s why he posted a season-high 128 total yards against the Dolphins last week. But if you didn’t do so already, you might have to contend with Jordan Mason’s nearing return. Still worth a shot, but don’t undersell.
• Kelce hurt his sell case with a poor 2-15 receiving line against the Raiders. A Week 5 bye means you should pause and wait for a different time.
• Samuel scored for the third time in four games, but he did so on exactly the kind of stat line that we can’t trust: 5 catches, 26 yards. Sell if you can.

Week 3 report

• Rice combines a hamstring injury with a Week 5 bye to make himself unsellable at the moment.
• Oof. We tried to sell Hampton before Keaton Mitchell could edge him in playing time and touches like he did last week. It’s still worth seeing if you can get a good price, though, because Hampton at least scored for the third time in four games.
• This is why we tried to quick-sell Ferguson after his 2-TD Week 2. His two receiving lines since have gone 3-23-1 and 3-11. Combine that with a short Week 5, and you’ll have to wait for another window to open.