The Minnesota Vikings lost for the first time in their last twelve contests, falling 19-15 on the road against the Detroit Lions. This is a game that will bring more scrutiny and criticism to the Vikings offense, as the Vikings were unable to drive the field many times, or possess the ball for very long. That led to the Lions wearing the Vikings defense down and going to a heavy dose of heavy-formation running between the tackles to get and keep the lead in the fourth quarter. The Vikings elected to punt the ball on what became their final possession, facing a 4th and 5 situation on their own side of the field. It was a questionable decision that revealed O’Connell’s lack of confidence in his offense as the Lions had already worn down the Vikings defense and the Lions also lost five players on defense.
As it was, the Vikings suffered a rare loss when the battle was tied on a turnover. The Vikings win 90% of the time when tied or winning the turnover battle. But also credit the Lions for having a good game plan on both sides of the ball- which the Vikings couldn’t effectively counter.
Kyler Murray. It’s not a Murray thing, but he sometimes takes too long holding the ball and getting a sack- putting the offense further behind schedule, and sometimes not quite right with his accuracy. But perhaps more than that, he seems to be playing with an overly conservative mindset, looking more to make no mistakes versus making a play. It was the second game in a row that his adjusted completion percentage was below 70%, meaning he had around 9 inaccurate passes in the game. The Vikings’ passing game still lacks rhythm as Murray remains inconsistent. And it has pretty good pass protection and play against defenses ranked near the bottom of the league.
The Lions have a good game plan, however. They doubled Justin Jefferson the entire game, and also doubled TJ Hockenson in some key situations. They played as much man coverage as they wanted to do, but they were betting that the Murray-to-Addison (or Jennings) connection wouldn’t beat them. And there is a reason for that. So far this season, Justin Jefferson and TJ Hockenson have been elite against man coverage- both graded above 90 according to PFF. But Jordan Addison didn’t. He was rated just 58.6 with just 4 receptions on 11 targets for 34 yards this season before the Lions game. So they doubled Jefferson and (sometimes) Hockenson.
The Lions also undoubtedly benefited from having Murray’s former offensive coordinator, Drew Petzing, on their staff as he will have insight into Murray’s strengths and weaknesses that they can work into their game plan. It wasn’t an off-the-charts bad performance by Murray, who finished 17/29 for 210 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT and an 89.7 passer rating, but more of a continuation of the same issues that have hampered the offense all season.
Kevin O’Connell. Part of the problem with Kyler Murray comes from KOC, which has pivoted too much into a conservative mindset. Maybe that makes sense with what he’s seen in practice, but he doesn’t seem like he’s really preparing the offense to play a bigger role when even he said more from the offense will be needed against the Lions and other games coming up this month. He talked about the offense being “close” last week, but it’s a long way from Detroit.
At this point in the season, and especially with a bye-week to test things as well, the offense should be more than where it is and able to respond better to game developments. But instead the technique seems stale with few answers and still little hint of rhythm and timing or consistency- and they’re reaching the halfway point of the season.
There needs to be more urgency. Perhaps the winning streak has led KOC to take a more relaxed approach to taking offense from asset liability, but shame on him for not being more proactive.
In that sense, perhaps losing to the Lions and ending the streak was just the kick O’Connell needed to get the offense on track. Something has to change, and it has to start with O’Connell. I think he saw now that if the offense doesn’t come together, the defense doesn’t make mistakes against better offenses and a heavy-formation run game to counter Brian Flores’ pressure packages and tire them out.
O’Connell was also outcoached against the Lions. They had a better game plan against his offense that he wasn’t able to counter effectively- and I’m not sure there were many attempts to do that. The Vikings’ offense’s inability to possess the ball and score points – 8 of their 11 drives were 5 plays or less – especially in the second half, led the Lions to switch to a heavy-formation run game to secure the lead in the fourth quarter. It’s something the Lions haven’t shown much on tape.
O’Connell also couldn’t take advantage of Detroit’s injury-depleted defense in the second half, and with three minutes left in the game, facing 4th and 5 at their own 33-yard line, down 4 points, O’Connell didn’t trust his offense to convert against a Lions defense playing backups at half their positions. This is a telling decision.
The Vikings’ loss—and the end of their winning streak—increases the need for an improved offense.
The Vikings’ loss to the Lions effectively ends their season.
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