Trade Targets Week 4: Read If You Like to Find Hidden Points

Last week found us selling a disappointing early-round back. This time we’re on the other side.

Plus, a pair of WRs look poised to score soon, while a veteran RB needs to get sold before his role disappears.

Week 4 Buys

Week 4 Sells

Buy These Fantasy Trade Targets

“But these guys just keep letting me down!”

Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

This might be the most glaring candidate on either list.

Brown sits just 20th among RBs in PPR points per game so far, despite usage that ranks significantly higher.

Brown ranks:

• Eighth at the position in snap rate
• Seventh in route rate
• Third in carry share
• 11th in target share

That all combines to position him 11th among RBs in expected PPR points per game.

Part of the problem has been matchups. The Bucs, Texans, and Steelers all rank among the top 12 in run-defense DVOA. This week brings another tough one, with Jacksonville ranking fifth in that category and second in total DVOA.

After that, however, comes Miami, the bye, and then this remaining schedule:

It’s a middling schedule overall — ranking 16th for RBs by our adjusted fantasy points allowed — but we’ll take that for a Cincinnati RB owning both the rushing and receiving work.

The Bengals’ offense should also improve. Cincinnati ranks just 10th in offensive DVOA through three weeks, after finishing fifth in 2024 and fourth in 2022 in Joe Burrow’s past two healthy seasons.

• Fifth in 2024
• Fourth in 2022

Get Brown before the improvements arrive, and your lineup will reap the benefits.

Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Carolina Panthers

Where would you guess McMillan sits in expected PPR points so far? Tied for 12th? With Ja’Marr Chase? (Good guess.)

Actual PPR scoring, though, finds the former first-round pick all the way down at 40th among WRs in points per game, 29 spots behind teammate Jalen Coker and looking up at players such as Dontayvion Wicks, Tre Tucker, and Deebo Samuel. (More on him later.)

Combine those factors, and you get the receiver with the seventh-most points under expectation through three weeks. And none of the six guys ahead of McMillan sports more total expected points. That means he leads the whole underperforming group in usage.

So what’s the problem?

These Issues Look Easy to Fix

McMillan’s catch rate is down a bit, from 57.4% last season to 52.2% so far this year. He hasn’t logged a drop, but he has dealt with just a 54.5% rate of catchable targets. That ranks 73rd among 74 WRs who have seen at least 10 targets.

Coker, meanwhile, ranks 23rd at 86.4%. QB Bryce Young checks in just 25th in accuracy rate among 28 QBs with 50+ attempts this season but 14th in completion percentage over expected.

Young’s 52.9% accuracy rate is down a bit from last year’s 54.2%, but it’s also dragged down by his 44.4% in the Week 2 win at Atlanta. The other two weeks combine for 56.5%, which would mark another slight step up.

That seems to match the QB’s early performance, and note that McMillan finished 23rd among WRs in PPR points per game last year with Young only slightly more accurate.

More importantly …

The TDs are Coming

McMillan scored seven times as a rookie, despite playing for a team that ranked just 27th in points. He also checked in just 45th among WRs in red-zone target share last season at 18.4%.

That number’s way up so far this year. McMillan’s working on a 31% RZ target share, 15th at the position. And his Panthers now sit fifth in scoring, seventh in yards, and first in passing yards.

McMillan does face a bigger overall challenge from Coker, knocking him from 14th among WRs in target share last year to 33rd so far this season.

That’ll need to improve if McMillan’s going to climb close to his WR19 ADP, but we don’t need him to get all the way there if you can get a good price right now. And that high draft position just might mean more frustration for his current manager.

Make an offer.

Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions

Let’s take a quick look at Williams’ numbers to see why he has fallen from 14.1 and 12.9 PPR points per game the past two years to just 7.6 so far this season.

Two key numbers jump out to me here. One should correct itself, while the other has a chance to matter a little less than I expected.

The most obvious change is the near-disappearance of after-catch production. Did the Lions finally find the downfield threshold at which Williams has maximized his journey and can’t run further after securing the ball? Probably not.

More likely, he has just gotten unlucky after the catch on limited targets so far. He saw just 4 in each of the past two games.

But that leads us to the other category.

Williams Needs to Get More Chances

Dropping from near-19% target shares over two straight seasons to 15.5% is not something we want to see from a fifth-year receiver. That matters, because it coincides with the healthy return of TE Sam LaPorta, who missed eight games in 2025.

However, LaPorta also played 16 games in 2024. So there’s room for Williams’ target share to rebound some even if the tight end stays on the field.

Additionally, early returns have the Lions bumping their pass volume a bit.

If that continues, higher team pass volume would offset some of a modest dip in individual target share. Detroit’s defense also looks worse than it did last year, ranking 28th in DVOA so far vs. ninth in 2025.

That’ll mean more potential shootout conditions or games where the Lions fall behind, either of which could increase passing volume further.

In short, Williams’ opportunity outlook should wind up at least similar to the past couple of years. 

So why chase that this week? Because Detroit visits a Panthers team that just placed its two starting corners on IR. If ever there were a week to try to leverage Williams’ downfield and/or run-after-catch ability, it’s this one — especially against an offense ranked fifth in scoring.

How Do Last Week’s ‘Buys’ Look?

Let’s look back at our Trade Target recommendations from the past two weeks and see how we’d treat those players now …

Week 3 report

• Even though the Jaguars won big over the Patriots last week, Washington tallied a mere 3-40-1 receiving line. That’s probably not enough to alter his price from last week.
• Warren similarly had a good week but also failed to reach the end zone. You might not be able to pry the RB17 in PPR points per game away from his current team, but it’s worth a shot.
• Pickens set season highs in targets, receptions, and receiving yards in last week’s shootout with the Ravens. But he still has no TDs this season and sits just 39th among WRs in PPR points per game.

Week 2 report

• Loveland improved vs. the first two weeks with a 4-31 receiving line in the win over Philly. But he went down just short of the end zone and remains without a TD this year. That likely keeps him buyable in an offense that looked terrific even with Case Keenum at QB.
• McLaurin finally scored against Seattle and landed 13th among WRs in PPR points for the week. That’s bound to make him more difficult to acquire, but no less attractive.

Sell These Players

Let’s start with a quick-sell.

Aaron Jones, RB, Minnesota Vikings

A lot of times, I’ll tell you that you don’t need to sell the player as quickly as possible for whatever you can get. This is not one of those times.

Now, I’d still never advocate selling anyone for “whatever you can get.” If a player’s at that level, we might as well dump him for someone on waivers in most cases. But Jones’ value stands to fall faster than most.

Jordan Mason’s absence (thumb fracture) the past two weeks allowed Jones 23 carries at Chicago and then 23 more opportunities at Tampa Bay (17 carries, 6 targets). Jones turned those into RB22 and RB14 PPR finishes, even without scoring a TD.

But his backfield lead is finite.

Expect Jordan Mason to Reclaim Rushing Lead

HC Kevin O’Connell said originally that he didn’t expect Mason’s thumb injury to keep him out longer than four weeks. He gets a bonus week in that timeline because Mason’s four-game window runs into the Week 5 bye.

That means we should expect Mason to return for a Week 7 home date with the Colts.

But shouldn’t we hold Jones in the meantime, at least through Sunday’s meeting with the Dolphins? Sure, you could do that. And at least keep that as your fallback plan in case you don’t find a serious taker for Jones.

If you wait, though, you risk killing the potential market. A Week 5 buyer can easily see that there would be just one more game before the bye. And an even decently savvy fantasy player would know about Mason’s situation, or at least check on it before accepting.

That makes now the time to try to move Jones. Even if doing so leaves you missing out on enviable Week 4 fantasy points, look longer-term and realize the new Jones manager might get just one more week of starter-level usage from him.

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs

A cynical reader of this call might say that this is why we can’t have nice things. Perhaps you didn’t imagine in your wildest dreams that Kelce would reach October as the No. 3 fantasy TE, and you’re breathless over the early results.

But I feel the need to speak now before the production aligns more with his usage and history and leaves you asking, is it over now?

Oh, You a Downfield Demon Now

Kelce’s currently averaging a career-high 16.5 yards per reception. Pretty awesome for a guy about to turn 37, but what’s actually driving that?

His average depth of target’s right in line with previous numbers. Kelce’s 6.6-yard aDOT this season actually comes in shorter than last year’s 6.8, which was his lowest mark since 2015. But after the catch, Kelce’s averaging a whopping 11.1 yards per reception. The last time he topped 6.1 in that category was 2016.

Credit a 59-yard rumble on a short pass in the third quarter of Week 1 and a 48-yard deep connection over the middle against Miami last time out. Either play would have beaten his season long for 2025 and 2024. And that means they’re probably outliers.

Those outliers carry more weight early in the season, when fewer targets exist to balance things out. And there’s reason to be a little concerned about the target numbers.

These Chiefs Don’t Need Kelce as Much

Kelce sits just 10th among TEs in expected PPR points per game so far. That’s not bad, of course. It probably lands right around where you drafted him. But it also sits well short of his production through three weeks.

Kelce has seen early declines in target frequency:

Those aren’t huge drops, of course. And they could improve. But this year’s Chiefs also have more offensive options. WR Rashee Rice sits 1 target short of Kelce’s total after missing nine games last season. Xavier Worthy’s 3 targets back after missing three games and playing through an injured shoulder in 2025.

But Kenneth Walker’s the biggest change. He sits tied with Kelce for the team target lead and is clearly the main reason these Chiefs are down from 58.6% in neutral pass frequency over the past two years (second in the league) to 56.0% (10th).

Walker has also helped them to a 3-0 start after last season’s 6-11 debacle. That means more leading game scripts and more rushing over passing.

Look for Upgrade Opportunities

Kelce can slip from his TE3 perch and still help your team, of course. So don’t feel like you must unload him. But you might be able to move Kelce now for Colston Loveland plus another valuable piece.

Or if you’re sitting on Kelce plus another usable TE already, then use the big guy to upgrade elsewhere. Use our trade value charts to help you get started.

Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers

This call might be more about philosophy than player, and it doesn’t come with full staff agreement.

Jared, specifically, didn’t want me to include Samuel because of the potentially strong role he could play this week — and beyond? — if Mike Evans sits.

I don’t disagree with his reasoning, but I also think that factor could help the return price. And that price is key to Samuel’s case.

This is NOT a Fire Sale

Aaron Jones is a guy you should try hard to sell before his value disappears. That’s not the case with Samuel. I’m including the 49er because there’s a chance he runs hotter in the market right now than his role deserves.

If you try to sell Samuel but find only meager returns being offered, then keep him around. There’s definitely room for the veteran to help your lineup for as long as Evans is limited by his current rib issue (or whatever the next thing is).

Beyond that, remember that you probably didn’t pay much for Samuel in the first place. So even if you hold him until he loses starting value, you will not have actually lost anything.

Now let’s get to why he appears in this section.

Deebo’s Numbers Are WAY Outperforming His Usage

Samuel ranks 21st among WRs in PPR points per game right now. He sits 66th in expected points per game.

That happens when you garner just 11 targets through three games but score a pair of TDs. And he hasn’t even really taken advantage of Evans’ limited playing time the past two weeks.

Evans ranked just 86th among all WRs in route rate over that span. Samuel, meanwhile, checked in:

• 43rd in route rate
• 88th in target share
• 105th in targets per route

He delivered you a nice WR22 finish for Week 3, but that came almost entirely on a “hook and ladder” pitch he took 80 yards for a TD. Samuel didn’t garner a single target in that game.

The low target share and targets per route confirm that he’s more of an insurance policy than a central gameplan factor. Could that change going forward? Of course. But it’s not likely to climb enough to match Samuel’s fantasy output so far.

If you can find a league mate who thinks he’s buying a weekly WR2, go ahead and sell. If not, hang on to the vet and be glad he plays in the league’s most perennially efficient offense.

How Do Last Week’s ‘Sells’ Look?

Let’s look back at our sell recommendations from the past two weeks and how we’d treat those players now …

Week 3 report

• Hampton probably got more difficult to sell after a mere 15-56 line with no catches in the loss at Buffalo, especially after watching Keaton Mitchell run for the team’s only TD. I’d still see about moving him, but be wary of taking a bad price.
• Ferguson scored another TD against Baltimore on another limited stat line (3-23 on 5 targets). He’s such a sell, if you can find an opportunity.
• Rice‘s knee makes me more wary of him than of Kelce. As I mentioned last week, he sports all the same questions about potentially not being as necessary this year as he was the past two.

Week 2 report

• Mahomes has become the softest of the Chiefs sells for me. That’s based on price and whether you’d still have a quality QB on hand. Keep in mind, though, that he’s played a pair of soft defenses after Denver and posted limited passing numbers against the Broncos: 55.6% completions, 184 yards.
• Montgomery might be difficult to move before his next good outing. He crashed the past two weeks after that fraudulent 3-TD opener on 3.0 yards per carry.