It’s early. It’s early. It’s early. That’s the caveat to this discussion. That said, the Houston Texans’ recent 0-3 start is not among many bingo cards. Because of this, you start to hear some rumblings about job security. While others like the Bucs, Jets and Commanders have coaches likely leading the charge, you can start looking for Ryans’ name, along with some of his staff, on that roll-call. Again, it’s early, but it’s starting to populate the internet.
On the one hand, losses to the Bills and Bengals, two playoff opponents, wouldn’t be terrible. The Colts loss doesn’t look good, but it’s a road game. Also, the Texans under the Ryans didn’t get off to the best of starts. It’s the second straight year the Texans have started 0-3 and the 3rd season in Ryans’ 4 that the squad has started at least 0-2. You’re probably tracking that the 2026 Texans will try to do what their 2018 and 2025 counterparts did (make the playoffs) after an 0-3 start.
However, this is a team that has found itself among the NFL’s elite. Two home losses against contenders and a division loss in Indy. Again, early, but now Houston is down to some critical tiebreakers. The running game has not lived up to its promise through three games, as the team ranks 30th in rushing. Stroud was sacked 10 times and again among the leaders among QBs under pressure on drop-backs. These are two big problems coming into the season, and right now, they don’t seem to be fixed.
Then you have defense. Expected to be the best in the game, their first three games didn’t show it. They got something wild against Buffalo, and while the performances improved over the next two games, they still weren’t closing out games like they did last season. They forced three turnovers against the Colts, but also allowed the team to convert over 53% of its 3rd/4th Down attempts. The defense will likely return to form, but can they carry the team like they did last season?
In addition, the team took some major damage. While some are out for the year (Higgins), players like Nico Collins, Branden Smith, Kayden MacDonald, Eg Ingram and Henry To’oTo’o should be back in the lineup before too long. That will help, but will their return be enough, or too little, too late? Oh, and things might not be helped if Al-Shaair, who was out of the game against Indy, doesn’t make it against Dallas.
If the team can’t overcome its usual slow start, what’s next? This is not a league known for patience. As Jerry Glanville famously said “This is the NFL, which stands for ‘Not For Long.’ I will go grocery shopping”. While coaches like Ryans probably won’t be applying to HEB for that gig anytime soon, job security isn’t exactly what it seems these days. Right now, some sports pages are moving up the Hot Seat Rankings. Ryans appears in several of them, and he’s not dead last in the standings.
Unless Houston falls to 3-4 wins, Ryan should be safe. He was in good standing with the McNairs, and, in theory, he bought himself some major credit with three double-digit winning seasons with two division titles and three playoff wins. Is he perfect and makes people think of peak Lombardi/Belichick? No, he’s not. His seat isn’t the hottest in the league right now. Granted, if there is increased dissent in the locker room and if Ryans’ in-game decisions continue to backfire, that could change quickly.
As for the coordinators…that might be a different story. The guy most likely to need a LinkedIn update right away is offensive coordinator Nick Caley. He showed enough improvement after a scary start in his inaugural season as OC that he was retained. However, some of the trends are back, and not in a good way. Major short-yardage and red zone issues, especially against the Bengals, are back in force. If the offensive line and running game can’t get on track, Caley may not make it into Year 3. He certainly doesn’t have many defenders here, and there’s some potential dissatisfaction from the players’ side.
Coming into this season, defensive coordinator Matt Burke seems to be in a good place. After last season’s successes, especially once he took over the defensive play-calling, Burke was on the short list for several head coaching gigs. Then this season started. Even with Josh Allen and Joe Burrow facing off, the defense didn’t come close to playing up to standard. Not all of that is on the coordinator, but there are some questions in coverage schemes and play-calling. If the defense fails to return to the standard of the past two seasons, that “NFL” moniker could come for Burke. Remember, former OC Bobby Slowik went from hot head coaching candidate to almost fired in one season.
Frank Ross is probably the best special teams coordinator in franchise history. However, when a team starts 0-3, and when some mid-to-bad special teams play contributes to that start, a lot of that credit gets burned. As seen in Slowik, it may not take much time to go from the top of the world to the bottom of the heap. However, what might help Ross is that he has survived many regime changes and if the squad is not the root cause of so many defeats, he should stay if he wants to. That, and like Caley, he’s part of the Caserio circle.
In which case, Nick Caserio can lay claim to being the primary architect for this iteration of the Texans. Going from a nothing team to three consecutive double-digit win seasons and three Divisional Round appearances in 5+ seasons is not a bad resume header. Still, expectations are the highest they’ve been in Houston in years. He spent a lot of money and drafting capital to improve the squad and fix issues. Given the start of this season, you could say those efforts have not been rewarded. He also has a strong relationship with the McNairs, but in the end, the team has to get to the championship rounds. He can jettison the coordinators and if necessary, jettison the head coach. However, how long will Caserio stay in the fight?
Of course, it’s still early. Freed from Easterby’s influence, Cal McNair is more measured in his decisions about the team, but if he feels impatient or frustrated, or more importantly, Hannah decides that a change is needed, then trust that change is happening. If the team falls to 0-4 or worse, the clamor will only grow louder and the respective Texan leaders will only rise in the “next-to-be-fired” ranks. The team can improve, and they have recent history on their side. However, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Again, all of this comes with the caveat that it’s “early.” However, there is a feeling that it is becoming too late too early. A few wins can really help change this narrative, like the start this weekend.