I’m going to MetLife Stadium this Sunday to see our beloved New York Jets take on the Cleveland Browns! If you are too, say hello to my fellow GGN Contributor BoyGreen25 and I at parking lot J2 for our tailgate. When we looked at the schedule in June, I specifically chose this game for our tailgate because I wanted to make sure we could witness a win for our annual (and only) personal experience. I even thought it might be the Jets’ first win of the season.
Now that the game is here, the Jets are 1-3, and the same fanbase that just eight days ago is ecstatic about the progress shown in a ‘competitive loss’ is now up in arms and ready to fire the same coach they trusted so much during those morale victories. Perspective is really an interesting concept because I think most fans are expecting 1-3 or 2-2 heading into this game. I haven’t heard any fans, not even the most optimistic ones, predicting 4-0 or 3-1 heading into Week 5.
Is it the difference between losing to the Titans by two points in Week 1 and then losing to the Tyson Bagent Bears in Week 4? Was that Week 1 performance so shocking that people got their hopes up and couldn’t imagine finishing the NFC North gauntlet 0-3, even though that was the scenario discussed all summer? Or is it more that the pain of losing backup quarterbacks is so painful that losing by two points to Tyson Bagent just drummed up decades of PTSD associated with our “Same Old Jets”?
For what it’s worth, teams in today’s NFL lose backup QBs fairly regularly. Both the New England Patriots who just lost the invincible Josh Allen and the Bills started their season losing a backup QB. The reigning Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks lost a backup QB. Losing a backup QB is far from a death sentence in today’s NFL. Losing four games in a row, however, has a higher mortality rate. However, I respectfully disagree that this game is a “must win.”
Of course, should the Jets win? Yes. Will this do much to calm the fanbase’s frenzy? Yes. But they can lose this game and then win the next three (Patriots, Dolphins, Raiders), and the entire fanbase is completely resurrected and incredibly hopeful for the Week 9 showdown at Arrowhead Stadium against the Chiefs. The weather will have a pulse on Monday, October 12, regardless of what happens on Sunday.
Let’s take a look at some of the things to look out for during Sunday’s game and see how they affect the final outcome of the game:
One of my earliest memories of the Glenn Era is all the bragging he did during press conferences. Glenn criticized the previous regime for all the punishments done and blamed it on the teaching. He said he would coach the team to be better players, be more disciplined, and take specific steps (like hiring referees for training camp) to correct these mistakes.
The New York Jets are currently 4th in the NFL in penalties committed per play. They have been penalized frequently in all three phases of the game but seem to have taken the most delay-of-game penalties of any team in the first four weeks of any season this century. If you want to know who leads the league in penalties per play this season, it’s the Cleveland Browns.
Another fun statistic: in Week 5, no NFL defense was punished more than the New York Jets. They were tied with the Cleveland Browns’ defense, which fell victim to Aaron Rodgers’ infamous hard count on Thursday Night Football. Between the Jets’ delay-of-game penalties and the Browns’ neutral-zone violations, we’ll see if there’s any chicanery on the lines when these teams match up on Sunday.
The goal is simple – do not commit penalties. Last week in particular, the Jets lost several interceptions on penalties that could have been avoided. It’s incredible to end an interception drought by getting rained out, but the team’s (lack of) discipline won’t let that happen. Needless to say, if those interceptions had stuck, the outcome of the game could have been very different.
You can look at this article and say, “yeah yeah yeah, any football game can have the same three things to look at,” and list the generic goals of every football game. Every football game, you want to take care of the football, move the ball down the field, and pressure the opposing quarterback. This article is important because it’s not that simple: every team is different and has different things going on. The different qualities of each team are emphasized when they face each other.
Deshaun Watson seems closer to his Houston Texan form than any other version of Watson we’ve seen in orange. Not only is his accuracy back at all three levels, but he’s also elusive and confident on his feet again. He is third in the NFL for rushing yards among QBs and is behind only Josh Allen in rushing attempts. They design run plays for him, but he’s most lethal when there’s blanket coverage downfield, and he finds his lane in the pocket.
Here I am calling for the Jets, who are currently 5th worst in the NFL in generating pressures per dropback (18.2%), to finally generate pressure on dropbacks. Being 4th in blitzes per dropback (33.6%) and 28th in pressures per dropback is a level of embarrassment I’m not ready to fully address just yet.
There’s been a lot of unwarranted criticism thrown at number two overall pick David Bailey, and some debate about whether it’s a talent issue or a usage issue. If I were to weigh in, I’d prefer usage, as he’s dropped back into coverage more times this season than he did his entire senior year at Texas Tech.
Regardless of the real answer to that debate, it’s up to Aaron Glenn to find a way to face Deshaun this Sunday. Otherwise, he’s free to sit back, diagnose, and scramble as he pleases toward carving up the Jets’ defense. Will we see if McDonald IV is related in any way? My call is for Bailey and Ossai to set the edge and force Deshaun into the middle of the field where the Jets have so many strong tackles. Of all the different things you could say about the Jets this year, you not possible say that they cope well. This is one of their strengths throughout the year.
You may have seen my previous article about Aaron Glenn’s biggest weakness, and I hope it stays front and center for them every day until they get this monkey off their back. With the first interception in 21 games finally caught, I thought they would continue to go here and there for a team that finally addressed the elephant in the room. The next biggest elephant in that room is their fearsome play at the end of those halves.
After the fumble at the end of the Bears’ first half of the game, the Jets’ streak now extends to 15 consecutive scoreless 2-minute drill attempts. I didn’t do a deep dive into the history of every NFL team’s 2-minute drill, but in that article I explained that I looked at every team’s 2-minute drill this season, and since everyone scored at least once this season, we can say with certainty that this streak of 15 is the longest active scoreless streak in the NFL.
Nick Folk’s game-winning field goal against the Falcons in Week 13 was the last time they scored any points inside the final two minutes of a half. Overall, Aaron Glenn’s Jets scored six times on 34(!) attempts. That’s a rotten 17.6% rate. What’s even crazier is how often the Jets end up with the ball in their hands in this situation. Some teams only had two or three chances in the first four weeks, while the Jets had six! So it’s even worse to have so many opportunities and still miss them so often.
If the Jets are going to end this losing streak, they will need to put points on the board and get some momentum going. There is perhaps no greater momentum swing in the game then scoring those last second points. Can the Jets do it? Hopefully, I’ll be in the stands this week! Come on Jets!