About five weeks into the season, we know one thing about the Super Bowl LXI matchup: There are a lot of possible options.
So, when we say that the Monday Night Football tilt between the Bills and Rams could be a Super Bowl preview, it’s because they are the current betting favorites (both at +350) to win the AFC and NFC, respectively. However, that exacta is still up to 20-1.
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If you’re not willing to count on a 4% chance we’ll see these two, in this field, on Feb. 14 (or maybe you have other plans that day?), get a box of chocolates for a game we hope to love.
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles (-3.5, 54.5)
To say that the AFC favorites, at 3-1, could go 0-4 would be disingenuous as Buffalo opened the doors to the new Highmark Stadium by shutting out the Lions in Week 2. However, Detroit’s defense hasn’t exactly improved its standing in the league since that Thursday. Meanwhile, the Bills are one dropped-interception from losing Week 1, played like a team they should have lost in Week 3 (turned the ball over five times), then actually lost to the Patriots last week.
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Usually, the Bills score, with Josh Allen already on seven rushing touchdowns, but after the first two games in which they ranked first in adjusted/weighted offensive EPA/Play, they fell to 19th in both Weeks 3 and 4. That’s troubling, considering the offense is a relative certainty for Buffalo.
The revamped defense is what we’ll have to wait for before deciding if the Bills are the Super Bowl contender the futures markets are insisting. However you break it down by advanced metrics, however, Buffalo is at the bottom of the NFL right now, and leading the way for the first time since christening its new crib.
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The Rams are a difficult team to evaluate in advanced metrics, as their high number of air miles cannot be ignored, going to Australia, coming home to LA, to a mile-high elevation of Denver in a short week, and then crossing to Philadelphia.
A jet-lagged effort against the 49ers, a fairly wilting second half against the Broncos and a sloppy start in the rain against the Eagles, may have poisoned the numbers, but the Rams are still in the top-five in both of the metrics we defined above. LA’s defensive numbers took a hit, however, as the Rams finished in the bottom half of the league.
Bet on the Los Angeles Rams to cover the spread at sportsbooks
While the addition of Myles Garrett has yet to shape up, at least Aaron Donald is back on Monday night, and the Rams have been healthy on that side of the ball.
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Playing with a little extra rest, with whatever it may take from the flight to Australia and back in their rearview, in their second home game of the season, we should expect the fully formed Rams offense to score one more touchdown than the Bills.
Bet: Rams -3.5
ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – SEPTEMBER 27: Ty Johnson #26 of the Buffalo Bills on the field before a game against the Los Angeles Chargers at Highmark Stadium on September 27, 2026 in Orchard Park, New York.
(Timothy T Ludwig via Getty Images)
Player props
RB Ty Johnson over 10.5 receiving yards (-115, Bet365)
After missing the first two games of the season, third-down safety blanket Josh Allen returned against the Chargers with four catches for 50 yards, and that’s not including a long catch-and-run touchdown that was called back on a holding penalty.
Then last week, Ty Johnson had two catches. With one going within 9 yards, if one goes up to 2 yards, he has cleared this total. Last season, Johnson had just one reception for negative yardage, and it was against the Patriots, and even that didn’t stop him from going over 10.5 — something he did in 10 of the last 12 games in 2025.
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WR Khalil Shakir longest pass reception under 19.5 yards (-116, DraftKings)
Shakir has been an afterthought in the Bills offense this season, with the addition of DJ Moore, Keon Coleman emerging, and Dalton Kincaid a featured player. Shakir caught 15 total passes, and only one of them went longer than 20 yards. That’s a 50% hit rate, topping the 7-for-16 pace Shakir had without those three pass-catchers in front of him in the pecking order for Allen last season.
TE Tyler Higbee over 22.5 receiving yards (-111, DraftKings)
Terrance Ferguson was on the come-up as the Rams’ pass-catching priority before going down early in Week 3 at Denver. Since then, Matthew Stafford, with so many tight end options on the Rams’ roster, has used veteran Tyler Higbee as that group’s primary pass-catcher. Higbee had eight catches for 62 yards and five for 67. In what should be another game in need of offensive urgency, he should get at least half of that yardage against the Bills.
ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK – OCTOBER 04: James Cook #4 of the Buffalo Bills carries the ball against Marcus Jones #25 of the New England Patriots during the first quarter at Highmark Stadium on October 04, 2026 in Orchard Park, New York.
(Bryan M. Bennett via Getty Images)
Anytime TD scorers
RB James Cook (-120, FanDuel)
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If Cook were on another team, he might lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns, but Allen ran behind Dion Dawkins for most of his seven scores, which skews how likely Cook is to score in our minds.
Including a touchdown reception in a game in which he didn’t run for one, Cook scored in nine regular-season games last season. That equates to a fair price of just over -110, but when you add in his three games with a touchdown so far this season, and factor that a game with this high a total should mean a higher probability of scoring for everyone, there is some value here. It’s even more so if Allen is already battling some offensive injuries that make him quick to give up on passes to Cook near the goal line.
RB Ty Johnson (+700, DraftKings)
Let’s make Johnson a long shot on the Bills, especially if Allen finds himself in a rare trailing game state against the best opponent Buffalo has faced this season, requiring him to throw more.
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WR Davante Adams (+100, FanDuel)
Puka Nacua returned last week, but that doesn’t mean Davante Adams isn’t still the best red zone target on the Rams.
Last week in the rain, there were no touchdown passes for either Ram. But against a porous Bills pass defense, the roster dynamic returns that led Adams to go 9-5 with “anytime” touchdowns in 2025. He scored twice in a home game the Rams had.
WR Tutu Atwell (17-1, DraftKings)
With much-needed attention on Nacua and Adams, there should be a coverage bust or two that Stafford can take advantage of, so which tertiary receiver is the target on deep shots.
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Early this season, Konata Mumpfield (+700) seemed to be the one whose snaps were most affected by Nacua’s availability.
Tutu Atwell, who was re-acquired in late August after he signed with Miami in the offseason, saw action in two games, catching just two of three targets, but as Sean McVay said when they made the trade, Atwell “brings an element of speed” — something that likely showed up on the fast track at SoFi Stadium against the Bills.
You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russellin THE WINDOW.