Starting today, we will have 61 consecutive days with an NFL or Division I college football game. Thanks to Rex Beyers for pointing that out.
So let’s start today’s football newsletter.
🏈 Thursday Night in Cleveland
The surprising Browns host the Steelers tonight in a Week 4 matchup of 2-1 teams in the AFC Central.
Pittsburgh is -3 in Circa and -2.5 on DraftKings.
VSiN.com senior editor Zach Cohen thinks the market favorite is wrong.
“Based on what we’ve seen this season, a good argument can be made that Cleveland should be favored — and that’s especially true at home.”
>> Zach Cohen’s TNF Best Bets
Dave Tuley sees both tonight’s match.
“The Browns have a better defense now, and the gap on offense has been closed.”
>> Tuley’s Takes on Every Week 4 Game
Steve Makinen’s Week 4 Analytics Report has a trend worth considering with tonight’s total at 38.5:
Twenty-one of the last 31 Thursday night games featuring a home underdog have been Under. House dogs average only 16.3 points.
>> Steve’s Week 4 Analytics Report
>> Build Your Week 4 Card: Picks and Previews for Every NFL Game
Have an opinion on Steelers-Browns? Tell us what your bet is — and see what other VSiN readers are seeing tonight.
>> Join the VSiN Community Conversation
🧰 Build Your Own TNF Card
BOLT will have recommendations for Steelers-Browns player prop after 1 pm ET today. You can also dig into our AI projections, prop analyzers, betting splits and picks from VSiN hosts and guests.
⚡ BOLT Player Prop Picks →
🤖 Opta AI NFL Player Prop Projection →
🔎 NFL Player Prop Analyzer →
📊 DraftKings and Circa NFL Betting Splits →
🎯 Picks From VSiN Hosts & Guests →
Programming Note: Keyshawn Johnson and Patrick Meagher will provide live commentary on tonight’s game from the 8-11 pm ET.
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I was browsing the for sale listings and came across this one: 1% of a live Circa Survivor entry was sold for $105.
The entry already used Jacksonville, Kansas City and San Francisco.
For $105, someone bought a piece of the search for $25 million.
>> Shop the Survivor Sweat Marketplace
Survivor Sweat is the official marketplace for Circa Sports football tournaments.
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🏈 Low-Wattage College Football
There are only two FBS games tonight:
Western Kentucky (+2) at New Mexico State — 8 p.m. ET, CBSN
North Texas (-1.5) vs. Tulsa — 9 p.m. ET, ESPN
But the betting market has already made one of them interesting.
North Texas opened +2 in Tulsa and now falls to -1.5.
One possible reason: Tulsa’s starting QB Baylor Hayes (knee) was a game-time decision. Rain is also expected in Tulsa.
Adam Burke has the best bets for both games tonight.
>> Adam’s CFB Best Bets on Thursday
Steve Makinen also had a play at North Texas-Tulsa — made before the line turned.
>> Steve’s Week 5 Best Bets
>> CFB Week 5 Analytics Report by Steve
>> CFB Week 5 Betting Hub
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⚾ One Game Left
The White Sox, Yankees and Padres advanced with 2-0 sweeps, leaving us with just one more Game 3 tonight.
(For the record, I wrote that sentence in the fifth inning of the Cubs’ debacle.)
Phillies (-109) at Braves (-103) — 8:15 p.m. ET, NBC
I asked Adam Burke for his thoughts after Day 2 of the playoffs.
He thinks Philadelphia has a significant pitching advantage tonight.
“My guess is they’ll try to get as many outs out of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Jhoan Duran as possible on Thursday. Grant Holmes will start or get multiple starts for the Braves. I like the situation for Philadelphia better in that regard, though Nola is likely to give up homers and more of the October stuff.”
Adam thought too The initial price of Cleveland’s Division Series might be a little highwith the power of Chicago particularly important in October.
And on Rays-Yankees, he points to New York’s power as the big story. Even without Aaron Judge, the Yankees hit four homers against a Boston staff built to limit the long ball.
Adam will post his Phillies-Braves best bets and Division Series previews on Thursday.
>> VSiN MLB Playoff Coverage
Saturday’s Division Series
White Sox (+130) at Guardians (-150) — 1 p.m. ET, TBS
Phillies-Braves winner over Dodgers — 4 p.m. ET, FOX
Yankees and Rays — 6:30 p.m. ET, TBS
Padres at Brewers — 8:30 p.m. ET, FS1
Series prices from Circa.
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