Thank you for nflFastR project, Pro Football Focus for up-to-date data sources.
For those of you who are new here, I will be publishing key QB stats each week on how well the Colts QB is performing. Yes, the O-Line, receivers, and play-calling affect these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably change the charts throughout the season. The commentary is short but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
People often describe the quarterback’s performance as “good enough to win.” If that is considered a valid criticism, this week I would say that Daniel Jones played too badly to lose. And here are a bunch of graphs to back that up.
mouseover definitions:
arsr,
Edp,
sg%,
oz%,
pr%,
tip,
tht,
data,
is/c,
Yak,
Yacoe,
yd/c,
ac%,
cpoe,
that’s enough,
Dr,
scr%,
facing %,
sck%,
aa%,
the/d,
the/p,
1st percent,
td%,
in %,
qbsr,
epa/p,
adj/p
- Efficiency in the running game is about average, but the Colts lean heavily on the pass in early down situations. (18th ARSR; 2nd EDP)
- Jones faced a lot of pressure, but got the ball out relatively quickly with average depth. This points to an O-line that struggles to protect. (9th PR%, 21st TIP; 19th TTT; 17th ADOT)
- The passing game didn’t generate much after the catch or make yardage completions. (25th AY/C; 20th YAC; 26th YCOE; 26th YD/C)
- Jones’ completion rate was OK, but the completions themselves weren’t very productive. (15th AC%; 19th CPOE; 23rd AYPA)
- Four sacks, just one scramble and one sack meant that too many pressured plays ended badly rather than being salvaged or thrown. (23rd SCR%; 25th TA%; 5th SCK%; 16th AA%)
- That left Jones at the bottom of the league in net yardage efficiency and first-down generation. (27th NY/D; 26th NY/P; 23rd 1ST%)
- The biggest problem was the offensive plays: Jones had just one passing touchdown while turning the ball over three times — an interception and two lost fumbles on sacks. (27th TD%; 3rd TO%)
- Overall, he was about average in maintaining positive plays, but negative plays pushed his total value lower. (17th QBSR; 23rd EPA/P)
mouseover definitions:
is,
dp%,
is/c,
Yak,
yd/c,
ac%,
that’s enough,
drp%,
that’s enough,
facing %,
especially,
sck%,
the/a,
scr%,
the/d,
car%,
the/p,
1st percent,
whatever,
td%,
whatever,
in %,
whatever,
epa/p,
Opd,
adj/p
Jones never found the strength to build around. His completions were relatively short and little was done after the catch, keeping the pass production mediocre. Efficiency can be saved with a very high completion rate, but his efficiency isn’t that great. From there, negative plays became a bigger problem, with sacks and turnovers dragging down a limited performance and leaving him with a well-below-average EPA per play.
Jones had many positive plays, but the damaging negatives outweighed them. His 20 successful plays in 43 QB plays produced a 46.5% success rate, but four sacks, an interception and the late fumble created some of the biggest negative plays of the game. Those high-value errors turned the performance into a poor total value with a reasonable number of successful plays.
Jones’ recent trend continues to move in the wrong direction. His ability to consistently make successful plays has fallen from where it was last season, while his total value and net yardage are also down. Week 3 continued that pattern.
Jones had trouble getting going, with a string of incompletions keeping the passing game from establishing any early rhythm. He eventually settled down and put together a more productive stretch, but the improvement didn’t last, as the negative plays piled up later in the game.
Jones has struggled to generate much production downfield. His completed air yards remained relatively short throughout the game, and even when he connected deeper, those gains were isolated rather than part of a sustained vertical passing attack.
Jones’ passing is good, but it can’t make up for the YAC and completion rate isn’t great.
Jones spreads the ball around well with Downs, Warren and Allen all having similar target volume. Warren was the most reliable target, catching 9 of 10 passes, but of course those were shorter throws.
Downs is by far the most targeted but getting 14 of 24 isn’t exactly thrilling.
Nothing really stands out here as the wide receiver depth and value is near or above average.
On the season, both Allen and Warren were undervalued.
Accuracy (CPOE) is fine, but with shorter than average throws, I would have liked to see a higher than average completion rate.
Jones’ release time is pretty good. Adjusting for depth, he took it off quicker than expected, so he processed well and didn’t handle the ball too much.
He had a lot of success towards the right side of the field and the left side, not so much.
During the year I see a lot of bad, a lot of meh, but not much good.