Going to the dogs last week turned into dog doodoo. I picked every dog against the spread last week and it looked good early, but then it fell apart late with a five-game losing streak, including both prime-time games Sunday and Monday night.
Good to try.
I was 8-6 straight up last week and 6-7-1 against the spread. Hey, the spread record is an improvement, which tells you how bad I’ve been this season. My ATS record this year is 43-61-3, which is far from .500. My straight-up record is 62-44-1.
So this week, it’s back to just picking games. Forget all the dogs. Trying to get to .500 makes me borrow a coaching cliché that they all use.
One game at a time. One week at a time.
Turnaround time.
All lines through DraftKings; All times ET
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (-3.5)
Lamar Jackson may be back for the Ravens, but how much will his injured ankle affect his ability to play? The Bills are coming off a bye, so they will be resting. Baltimore’s defense was bad in last week’s loss to the Bengals, but Buffalo’s defense was very bad. Find a shootout here where Josh Allen gets the best of it.
Select: Bills 35, Ravens 30
Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals (-10.5)
The Titans are having big problems on offense, while the Bengals lit up the Ravens last week. Joe Burrow was special in the second half of that game and I think that will carry over here. Look for an offensive explosion from the Bengals as Burrow begins to enter the MVP talk.
Select: Bengals 36, Titans 10
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)
- Sunday, 1 pm on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
The Cowboys’ offense came alive against the Eagles on Monday night, especially on the ground, which is not a good thing for an Arizona defense that is last in the league in scoring. Dallas’ offense must roll and Arizona’s offense can’t keep up. Dallas is big — even on a short week.
Select: Cowboys 37, Cardinals 21
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-3)
- Sunday, 1 pm on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
The undefeated Vikings face a tough road game against Detroit. The Lions’ offense against Minnesota’s defense was a sight to behold. Jared Goff is playing at a high level right now, but Minnesota’s defense is the best in the league in terms of scoring. The Vikings’ offense was limited, but Detroit’s defense had major problems. But they were better last week, which I think carries over. The lions took it.
Select: Lions 23, Vikings 13
Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets (-1.5)
- Sunday, 1 pm on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
Kirk Cousins remains the starter for the Raiders, but teams have beaten him the past two weeks. That could be a problem here because the Jets are a top 10 team in blitz percentage. The Raiders have struggled to stop the offense, giving up 28.1 points per game, so look for Geno Smith to have success. Jets win.
Select: Jets 27, Raiders 16
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
This is a big game for the division lead in the AFC North. The Browns beat the Steelers earlier this year, but this will be a bigger challenge on the road. They also play back-to-back games on the road, which will be a challenge. Look for Aaron Rodgers to play well as the Steelers take it.
Select: Steelers 24, Browns 20
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)
- Sunday, 1 pm on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
It’s suddenly a big game in the NFC South where the Bucs upset Carolina last week and the Falcons upset the 49ers. Tampa Bay’s running game came alive, but Atlanta was stingy on the ground, giving up 3.8 per rush. That means it’s a Baker Mayfield game. Tampa Bay is giving up 3.5 per rush, which could be tough for Bijan Robinson. That’s a problem for the Atlanta offense. Tampa Bay wins.
Select: Bucs 23, Falcons 17
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-9.5)
The Colts are a mess; they’re playing back-to-back road games, and haven’t won in Jacksonville since 2014, when Andrew Luck was the quarterback. Oh, and they traded away their best offensive lineman, Quentin Nelson. The Jaguars have a bye, so they’ll be getting some rest. This one will be ugly as the Jaguars bounce back from a loss to the Texans in London.
Select: Jaguars 30, Colts 16
Los Angeles Chargers (+6.5) at Los Angeles Rams
- Sunday, 4:05 pm on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
The battle in Los Angeles was not the game many were expecting before the season. The Chargers, coming off a bye, have yet to win and the Rams are a disappointment. But the Rams won last week in Las Vegas with things looking right. They will win this one, but the rested Chargers will keep it close.
Select: Rams 23, Chargers 20
Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) at Denver Broncos
The Chiefs offense lacked life in Seattle on Sunday night and now faces a stout Denver defense. They need to find ways to get the running game going again with Kenneth Walker. Bo Nix showed some life last week in the win over Arizona, but this Chiefs defense will be a challenge. Look for a low-scoring game won by Kansas City, where Walker struggles against Denver’s defense, giving up 4.6 yards per rush.
Select: Chiefs 19, Broncos 14
New England Patriots (-7) at Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins won their first game last week and have been losing a lot. But this New England team will be a challenge, even at home. The Patriots are coming off a bad road loss to the Bears, and they will be resting, after playing on Thursday. The defense is limiting the Dolphins offense, and Drake Maye will play well. New England won.
Select: Pats 28, Dolphins 14
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders (-5.5)
- Sunday, 8:20 pm on NBC (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
This could be an elimination game of sorts for these two. Both need a win in the worst way – even in their terrible division. The Eagles are crippled by injuries, but Washington has plenty of its own. With the Eagles on a short week off with a Monday night game and the Commanders not having a bye, Washington will win.
Select: Commanders 28, Eagles 16
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks (-3)
- Monday, 8:15 pm on ESPN, ABC (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
The Bears are riding high behind Caleb Williams and an improved defense. But it’s a tough road trip against a Seattle team that showed what it can do on defense by shutting out the Chiefs Sunday night. Seattle also finished the running game. Seattle’s defense will slow down Chicago’s offense, and the Seahawks will win it.
Select: Seahawks 24, Bears 17
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (-3.5)
- Thursdays, 8:15 pm on Amazon Prime
These two are both coming off a loss. The loss to Carolina featured the Bucs running with them for 258 rushing yards. This is a year-round problem. But the Packers don’t run it very well, so something has to give. Carolina gave Jordan Love fits last year, but that will change here. Carolina is giving up 27.7 points per game. Love lights them up and Josh Jacobs gets the run game going.
Select: Packers 31, Panthers 24