Yes. Yes. Yes.
Let me say it again: Yes.
After a horror show in Week 4 with my NFL picks, I got back on track in a big way this past week. I’m 10-4-1 straight and 9-6-1 against the spread. This brings my season record outright to 48-30-1 and the ATS record to 34-43-2.
The ATS mark will be a slow climb to get back above .500 after that awful Week 3. But I felt good about this week’s picks.
Time to build momentum. Two good weeks in a row?
you bet
All lines through DraftKings; All times ET
Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Denver Broncos
- Thursdays, 8:15 pm on Amazon Prime
The Seahawks lost a tough one against the 49ers last week and now face a short week on the road against Denver. The Broncos’ offense struggled, even with Sean Payton taking over as play-caller. Bo Nix has to pick it up, but this is a tough defense to try and fix things. Seattle takes a tough game on the road.
Select: Seahawks 23, Broncos 17
Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)
- London on Sunday, 9:30 am on NFL Network (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
The Jaguars will be in London for two weeks, making it a challenge for the Texans, who go this week. Houston won for the first time on the road last week and now their division chances likely hinge on this game. The Jaguars were sloppy last week, which will bring them back into focus. The Jaguars will win tightly.
Select: Jaguars 24, Texans 20
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (+3)
- Sunday, 1 pm on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
The Bears had a terrible showing in Green Bay, where the defense was shredded. But the Falcons lost in overtime to the Ravens and quarterback Michael Penix was hurt. He will likely play here, and that’s a good thing because he could light up Chicago’s defense. The Falcons won.
Select: Falcons 27, Bears 21
Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) at Cleveland Browns
- Sunday, 1 pm on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
There is a possibility that Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson will return for this game after missing last week with an ankle injury. Even if he doesn’t, I think the Ravens defense is up to the task of slowing down the Browns offense. If Jackson returns, the Ravens’ offense will move the ball.
Select: Ravens 24, Browns 13
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-7)
- Sunday, 1 pm on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
The winless Titans head on the road to play an inconsistent Colts team. The Colts’ defense has improved in recent weeks, which will challenge Cam Ward and the Titans’ limited offense. Look for the Colts to get a division victory as Jonathan Taylor has a big game.
Select: Colts 28, Titans 17
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-7.5)
The Patriots turned their season around with back-to-back victories as Drake Maye came to life. The Jets played better on defense against Cleveland last week with eight sacks, but this will be a bigger challenge. Look for Maye to keep it going as the Pats win their third straight.
Select: Patriots 28, Jets 13
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants (-1.5)
- Sunday, 1 pm on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
The Saints have lost three straight and fall to 1-4. They didn’t play well against the Vikings last week, but this is a chance to get it right. The Giants were tied last week, but Jameis Winston played well. I think it’s about defenses. Giants in a close.
Select: Giants 19, Saints 16
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5)
The Panthers have a bye, while the Eagles are on a trip to London where they lost in brutal fashion to the Jaguars. It was a season of desperation for the Eagles, but the injuries mounted. Either way, they’ll come out on deck to win it behind their defense.
Select: Eagles 23, Panthers 20
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3)
Both of these teams righted the ship with victories last week. The Bucs needed it after losing their first four. Tampa Bay ran it with Bucky Irving to beat the Cowboys and I think they can do the same here. The defense played better in that game and Aaron Rodgers will be limited quite a bit. Bucs win.
Select: Bucs 26, Steelers 21
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-13.5)
- Sunday, 4:05 pm on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
The “Dream Team” Rams are 2-3 and have yet to look the part of a Super Bowl champ. The offense got it going against the Bills, but the defense was a non-factor in the fourth quarter and overtime. They will play better here against the Cardinals. Meanwhile, Matt Stafford will have a big day.
Select: Rams 35, Cardinals 20
Los Angeles Chargers (+8.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
The Chargers limp into this one at 0-5, while the Chiefs are undefeated with a bye. The Chargers are desperate and need a win or their season is over. This is not a good place to try to get the first victory. Look for Patrick Mahomes to play well. Chiefs coach Andy Reid is capped off his career with a farewell.
Select: Chiefs 28, Chargers 21
Buffalo Bills (-6) at Las Vegas Raiders
The Bills are playing back-to-back games on the road, but they stayed on the West Coast after defeating the Rams in overtime on Monday night. That was a tough, physical game, which will make it a challenge on a short week. The Raiders were terrible against the Pats, but they will play better on offense here. They just won’t stop the Bills.
Select: Bills 35, Raiders 21
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-1.5)
- Sunday, 8:20 pm on NBC (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
The Packers blew out the Bears Sunday as Jordan Love lit up the sky. Look for more of that in this one against a bad Dallas secondary. The Cowboys struggled defensively against the Bucs, and that will continue in this one. Love continues to play well. The Packers won a shootout.
Select: Packers 31, Cowboys 27
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5)
- Monday, 8:15 pm on ESPN (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
It’s been a long journey for the Commanders from a brutal draw last week to face the league’s best team today. That is a difficult combination. They can only hope for a layoff by the 49ers after they beat Seattle last week. It won’t happen. The 49ers continue to roll as Brock Purdy continues to push as a legitimate MVP candidate.
Select: 49ers 30, Commanders 21