After 2,429 regular-season games, the 2026 MLB Playoffs will begin a long-running division rivalry in the NL East. The Atlanta Braves host the Philadelphia Phillies at 2 pm ET on Tuesday, September 29 to begin the best-of-three Wild Card Round. A Wild Card Round* was added to the MLB postseason in 2012, but it was only a one-game, winner-take-all event until 2022 when it became more of a series.
The Braves won the NL East by six games over the Phillies and took nine of 13 regular-season meetings, so that’s about as many games as they won the division when all was said and done. During those 13 games, the Braves outscored the Phillies 66-43, holding a very solid Philadelphia lineup to 3.31 runs per game.
That said, the Phillies scored the fewest runs in a non-COVID year since 2018, getting just 713 touches of home plate. The Braves scored 742 runs, 18 more than they accumulated last season while finishing 20 games behind in the division. The pitching staff and the defense made all the difference for Atlanta and we’ll see if they can carry that into this series.
Phillies vs. Braves Wild Card Round Odds
Braves -125 // Phillies +105
Total Games: 2.5 (-115/-105)
Phillies vs. Braves Wild Card Round Schedule
*all games in Atlanta
Game 1: Tuesday, September 29, 2 pm ET (NBC)
Game 2: Wednesday, September 30, 2 pm ET (NBC)
Game 3: Thursday, October 1, 2 pm ET (NBC) – as needed
Phillies vs. Braves Offense
Edge: Brave ones
The run environment of the MLB postseason is such that hitting the long ball is extremely important. Managers are using their pitchers more aggressively and hurlers are holding nothing back. We often see the strikeout environment increase in the postseason and we see fewer hits, fewer stolen bases, and fewer chances to score runs. That’s why hitting for power is such a big deal.
Atlanta finished the regular season with 204 homers, while the Phillies had 182, led by Kyle Schwarber, who tied for the MLB lead with 45 round-trippers. Matt Olson paced the Braves with 41, as he had a strong bounce back campaign after hitting 29 in each of the last two seasons. Atlanta finished with five players with 20+ homers, while Philadelphia had just two, while Trea Turner fell one short of 20 and Brandon Marsh fell two.
When all the regular season dust had settled, the Braves hit .234 to Philly’s .240 and trailed in the on-base percentage department as well, with the Phillies getting a higher walk rate. One big difference between the two teams, however, is that the Braves are 10th in weighted on-base average (wOBA; think OBP, but the results are weighted based on their run value) against right-handed pitching, while the Phillies are just 25th.
Phillies vs. Braves Pitching
Partially Edge: Brave ones
This is not an edge for the Braves as I am a big believer in their starting rotation. In fact, beyond Chris Sale, who will start Game 1, it’s hard to love Tyler Mahle, Grant Holmes, and JR Ritchie, as we’ll likely see the Braves need to use their bullpen a lot. The reason the Braves got the edge here is because the Phillies rolled in the last week of the season and had to fire Zack Wheeler on the last day of the regular season to try and clinch a playoff spot.
The veteran right-hander threw six innings of one-run ball to help push his team into the playoffs, but the best-case scenario here is that he rests Thursday in Game 3 if at all. Similarly, Cristopher Sanchez pitched Friday with the team trying to secure a postseason berth, so he will be on regular rest for Wednesday’s Game 2, but not Tuesday’s Game 1.
Jesus Luzardo, who had not pitched since throwing a complete game shutout on Sept. 7, pitched one inning in relief and threw four pitches on Sunday. I don’t know if he’s built to be a multiple pick or a piggyback with Andrew Painter, but the Phillies will put something together.
While ERA shows a big difference between the two bullpens, the Phillies actually have the lower xERA and FIP. Atlanta is fourth in reliever ERA at 3.44 and Philadelphia is 21st at 4.43, but the Phillies have a 3.68 xERA and 3.92 FIP compared to Atlanta’s 3.83 xERA and 3.95 FIP. The biggest difference is that the Braves have a left-on-base percentage of 77.4% as a relief corps and the Phillies have a 70.0% mark.
If the Phillies had been clinched earlier, they would have gotten the nod here, but Wheeler not being available for Game 1 and likely not Game 2 is a pretty big deal.
Phillies vs. Braves Miscellaneous Notes
Another advantage the Braves have is that they could easily be the better defensive team, which is also a big reason why they ended up with better pitching numbers. Atlanta is a top-five defense in Outs Above Average, Statcast’s all-encompassing fielding metric, while the Phillies are a borderline bottom-10 group. In the small sample size of a three-game series, it may not matter much. It also can matter a ton because of the restricted run environment.
Both offenses are below average in second half wRC+ (weighted runs created plus; where “plus” means adjusted for park factor and run environment), with the Braves at 97 and the Phillies at 93. That means the Braves are 3% below league average offensively in the second half and the Phillies are 7%. That said, the Braves are in the top 10 in home runs, while the Phillies are in the bottom five.
Former Phillies manager Rob Thomson led the team to the NL Pennant in 2022 when he took over for Joe Girardi, but he was fired 28 games into this season. He is 21-17 in the playoffs. Don Mattingly is 10-14 as a playoff skipper, 8-11 with the Dodgers from 2011-15 and 2-3 with the Marlins in the 2020 postseason.
Walt Weiss is in the playoffs for the first time with the Braves after serving as Rockies manager from 2013-16.
Phillies vs. Braves Wild Card Prediction
Pick: Braves -125
Did I think the Braves would win the series? I think it should, but it’s a starting position given the possibility that we get Chris Sale vs. Jesus Luzardo/Andrew Painter in Game 1. Sale was simply stellar in the regular season again, posting a 2.16 ERA with a 2.97 xERA and a 2.29 FIP in 162.2 innings of work. He’s been very good with his pitches with a 30.9% K% and 4.8% BB% and that should set things up for the Braves to use Sale and then all of their top relievers if he can get them six or more innings.
Assuming we get the Mahle vs. Sanchez in Game 2, we’ll have a chance to take the Phillies for the series at a better price, as I think they have plenty of ability to win Games 2 and 3 with Sanchez and Wheeler, assuming Wheeler is ready to go for the elimination game if needed. Mahle has been outstanding since being acquired from the Giants with a 1.99 ERA, but he has a 3.59 xERA and a 3.32 FIP to go with an 87.4% LOB% that doesn’t seem sustainable. A Brent Suter/Grant Holmes piggyback doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence either.
So, the Braves -125 to start since Sale and Atlanta should win Game 1 and then a better price on the Phillies with their two aces likely to go the other two games.
Other series previews: White Sox vs. Astros | Red Sox vs. Yankees | Cubs vs. Padres