The Matchup. Edge: Nothing.
WEEK 3 RECAP: We just had the worst bet on Sunday afternoon. We lost all five of our bets by three or more units, and we also lost to the Jets and Rams. That is Murphy’s Law. Anything that could have gone wrong for our bets went wrong for our bets. Luckily, we were able to salvage some money with our excellent Lamar Jackson and Matthew Stafford ladders, posted on Discord.
I’ll break down picks of three or more units here:
Seahawks, 3 units (lost): The Seahawks somehow lost to the Redskins despite outgaining Washington by 190 yards and averaging 2.8 yards per game. They lost because a fumble and an interception gave Washington 14 points. It seems like there is no effort. Perhaps the Seahawks relaxed a bit with Sam Darnold’s return from injury, thinking things would be easier with their starting quarterback back on the field.
Bengals, 4 units (loss): This was probably the most disappointing game of the week. There were two occasions in the fourth quarter when the Bengals were up by three and set to get the ball, but only made disastrous mistakes on special teams. The first time, they fumbled the kicker to extend Pittsburgh’s drive. The second time, they fumbled a punt to give the Steelers another scoring opportunity. Had the special teams errors not occurred, the Bengals almost certainly would have won and conquered, or at the very least pushed.
Texans, 5 units (loss): There is no bad loser in this game, and the Texans deserved to lose. I won’t argue that I have a right side. What I will bring out is Daniel Jones showing more mobility than he did in the first two games. My thesis behind the Texans’ acquisition is that Jones is immobile and therefore will be a sitting duck in the pocket against one of the top defenses in the NFL. Instead, Jones ran well for a first down and a few other scrambles. He’s not what he used to be, but he’s certainly moving better than he was in the first two games, which was disappointing. Meanwhile, Houston’s defense couldn’t get off the field on most drives. Everyone on the Houston defense besides Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter is playing like crap.
Panthers, 3 units (loss): This game is too complicated. The Panthers outgained the Browns by 108 yards and averaged 0.8 yards per play, but they gave the game away with two failed fourth-down attempts, one of which gave Cleveland the ball in plus territory. Even after those mistakes, Carolina seemed to seal the victory with an interception late in the game. However, the Panthers were called for roughing the passer, which gave the Browns a first down and eventually allowed them to score the game-winning touchdown.
Buccaneers, 4 units (loss): The Buccaneers are now 0-3, but they really beat the Vikings. They lost because they gave up a punt-return touchdown and made too many mistakes. Tampa Bay looks completely unprepared to play this game. I don’t know how Todd Bowles survived this loss. If I were the owner, I would have fired him in the middle of the game.
Matthew Stafford ladder, 3 units (win): We won by six units on this ladder, thanks to Evan Daniel pointing out how low Stafford’s passing yardage was for the second half.
By the way, some of you may not have noticed that all but two picks per week are in the Premium section. I truly apologize to those disappointed by this, but we have no choice; otherwise, we would have to close shop, and there would be no choice. With ad rates dropping as a result of our terrible economy, and AI search results preventing new people from finding this WalterFootball.com, we had to pivot in a different direction to keep the website alive. We don’t ask much – just 30 cents per day – so if you want to help us, you can sign up for WalterFootball Premium. As a bonus, you won’t see any ads. This website will be very fast and will not crash as a result of any ads.
CLEVELAND OFFENSE: I’ve seen Deshaun Watson get some praise for his two accomplishments over the past few weeks. While Watson had a decent game against sorry Tampa Bay, he didn’t perform well against the Panthers. In fact, Cleveland won despite him, although he came through in the clutch at the very end after getting help from the officials on a roughing-the-passer penalty.
What worries me about Cleveland’s offense, aside from Watson, is that the offensive line gave up 27 pressures to the Panthers last week. This is Carolina we’re talking about, not Minnesota or another elite defense.
If the Browns have that much trouble blocking the Panthers, what will happen against TJ Watt, Alex Highsmith and Keanu Benton?
OFFENSE IN PITTSBURGH: One quarterback who really deserves some praise is Aaron Rodgers. Although he struggled the first two weeks, he finally attacked downfield against the Bengals. Cincinnati’s defense made some big improvements, but Rodgers torched it relentlessly in the first half.
That said, I don’t see Rodgers having the same success in this game. His offensive line is a huge liability, and the Browns have the talent to exploit it despite the departure of Myles Garrett.
Rodgers will again need help from his running game, and he might get it. This may surprise you, but the Browns are ranked 24th against the run right now. It’s only been three games, but they had issues containing Chuba Hubbard last week, so Jaylen Warren could have another solid performance.
RECAP: This game is very unattractive from a betting point of view. If you like the Steelers, be warned that they haven’t won in Cleveland since the Ben Roethlisberger days. They even lost there last year in what seemed like a must-win game late in the season. Remember that Pittsburgh rebounded the following week and beat Baltimore, so it’s not like the Steelers are a bad team.
I also have trust issues with Rodgers and this offensive line. Pittsburgh played well last week, but that performance doesn’t look like it could be repeated against a better defense.
If you like Cleveland, though, I’d be afraid to bet on a terrible team like the Browns coming off a win. Cleveland is 10-21 against the spread following the victory over the past five years. Other miserable teams perform poorly in this situation.
Also, the Steelers are the fresher team. Pittsburgh played just 119 total snaps last week, while Cleveland played 147. That seems significant on short rest. We saw teams struggle on Thursday after playing overtime games last Sunday, so I think this workload difference is more important than anything else.
Our Week 4 NFL Picks will be posted throughout the day on Tuesday. follow @walterfootball for updates.
The Motivation. Edge: Nothing.
No edges found.
The Spread Sides: Brown ones. 
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -2.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -2.5.
Computer Model: Browns -4.5.
The Vegas. Sides: Brown ones.
Leaning slightly on the Steelers.
Percentage of money in Pittsburgh: 64% (9,000 bets)
The Trends. Side: Steelers.
Weather: Chance of rain, 74 degrees. Light wind.
Week 4 NFL Picks: Steelers 20, Browns 16
Steelers -2.5 (0 Units)
Less than 38.5 (0 Units)