🏈 Are the Packers Really a Better Team?
“Over the past four weeks, the Packers have looked like one of the best teams in football.”
That’s VSiN.com senior editor Zach Cohen, who cited the Expected Points Added (EPA) numbers in his preview of tonight’s Panthers-Packers game at Lambeau Field.
Green Bay went 3-1 in that stretch and is a 3.5-point favorite in Carolina to start Week 8.
But before you think about Zach’s choice, consider what else he discovered:
“When looking at all these numbers for the Packers, you know what sticks out the most? The Panthers have had the better statistical profile over the course of the entire season. Carolina also matches up well with Green Bay in a lot of ways.”
Green Bay is a 3.5-point favorite in Circa, but Zach’s analysis suggests this matchup may be closer than the spread suggests.
So which is more important — Green Bay’s recent improvement or Carolina’s stronger full-season numbers?
Zach broke the matchup and did two Best Bets: a side and a player prop.
>> Zach Cohen’s Panthers-Packers Best Bets
Dave Tuley also sees an opportunity. He likes the idea of backing a team back from an embarrassing loss and believes Carolina has reason to respond after Sunday’s 43-13 loss at Tampa Bay.
>> Tuley’s Takes on Every Week 8 Game
Makinen’s Numbers Disagree
Steve Makinen’s Power Ratings makes Green Bay a 5.6-point favorite. But some of his betting systems point to Carolina.
Carolina is coming off an ugly 43-13 loss to Tampa Bay. In the last 34 qualifying games, NFL teams that missed the spread by 30 points or more have recovered as road underdogs by at least three points, 23-10-1 ATS (69.7%).
Another Thursday Night Football system favors road teams that lose at home. Those groups are 32-18-1 ATS (64%) over the past four plus seasons.
And Green Bay qualifies for a play-against system that has seen favorites lose in straight sets where they cover the spread. 34-63 ATS (35.1%) since 2019.
Steve’s Week 8 Best Bets will be posted today, but his Analytics Report is now available.
>> Makinen’s Week 8 NFL Betting Systems and Trends
Looking for Player Props?
VSiN has three tools to help you find the edge for tonight’s Panthers-Packers game:
>> BOLT Prop Picks — Find player prop options.
>> VSiN Player Prop Analyzer — Compare available player props and betting numbers.
>> Opta AI Projections — See how statistical projections stack up against the market.
Around the NFL
Lamar Jackson returned to full practice Wednesday before Baltimore’s game at Buffalo. The Bills opened as 3.5-point favorites, and the line is now Buffalo -3.
>> NFL Week 8 Betting Hub: Picks, Odds and Previews
🏈 How High Is Too High?
Oddsmakers expect fireworks in Thursday night’s Florida Atlantic-North Texas game.
The total has been reached 77 in Circacollege football’s highest total of the season.
The game starts at 7:30 pm ET on ESPN, and Adam Burke breaks down the matchup, with Troy at James Madison.
Is the sum justified by the offenses involved, or have bettors pushed the number too far?
>> Adam’s Thursday College Football Picks
>> Week 9 Betting Systems, Splits and Trends
>> College Football Week 9 Betting Hub
Share your picks. Have an opinion on a pro or college football game this weekend? Post it in the VSiN Community.
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⚾ Release the Barrel
Milwaukee finally got to celebrate Wednesday night.
After Tampa Bay extended the World Series with a 12-inning comeback Tuesday, the Brewers finished the job with 4-1 win in Game 5 to capture their first World Series championship.
Milwaukee entered the series as a -160 favorite.
William Contreras, who was +175 to win the World Series MVP heading into Game 5, took home the award.
Another championship could be decided today. The Golden State Valkyries lead the Atlanta Dream 3-2 and can clinch the title on the road at 12:30 pm ET. Golden State is a 4.5-point underdog.
🏇 A Familiar Horse, An Unfinished Rage
The Breeders’ Cup is Friday and Saturday at Keeneland, bringing 14 races that are disappointingly difficult to handicap.
But we will still give it our best shot in the next few days.
Saturday’s Classic features defending champion Forever Young, the 2-1 favorite in an eight-horse field.
I still haven’t recovered from loading Forever Young in the 2024 Kentucky Derby, only to watch him fall down the stretch and finish third.
Our horse racing handicapper, “Mr. Ed” Sehon, studied the Classic field. And spoiler alert: He doesn’t take chalk.
>> Mr. Ed’s Breeders’ Cup Classic Preview
Ed also has previews of Friday’s Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies races.
>> Complete Breeders’ Cup Coverage
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📊 All Machine Power Ratings in One Place
We’ve made it easy to find Steve Makinen’s ratings in every sport.
The new VSiN Power Ratings Hub consolidates his sport-by-sport ratings in one place, with links to complete ratings and daily or weekly head-to-head matchups.
You can also sort matchups to find those marked with stars, which indicate potential value against the actual betting line.
>> Explore the New Power Ratings Hub
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