NFL Week 4 projected scores: Model predicts point spreads and totals for each game

NFL Week 4 features a matchup of 3-0 teams. One team, the Kansas City Chiefs, is not a huge surprise to be 3-0. Their opponents, the Las Vegas Raiders, are even more surprising at 3-0.

My NFL Projection Model favors the Chiefs on the road by 5.8 points, which is slightly more than a 5-point spread. Let’s see what else the model has in store for Week 4.

My NFL Projection Model has point spreads and point totals for every game on the slate. Play-by-play data is required to create projections for each team in the league. These projections are adjusted for opponent time and garbage before coming up with projected points-per-game for offense and defense. From there, I am able to plug these values ​​into the model and get an expected spread and total for each game of the NFL season.

For more from model numbers, check out the 2026 NFL Simulator. It shows how likely your team is to make the playoffs, the probability of your team’s chances of winning each game on its schedule as well as its view of each team’s chances of making the playoffs, winning its division or the Super Bowl. Additionally, I posted my best bets for NFL Week 4.

Below are my projections for each game, compared to FanDuel’s betting lines.