October is almost here! The NFL is heading into Week 4 and with the fall season, football is really and truly in the air!
Last week opened with the Falcons beating the Packers in Green Bay, which tells us a lot about how bad the Packers are right now. The most notable upset was the Marcus Mariota-led Commanders beating the previously undefeated Seahawks, but the Jaguars were also a bit of a surprise in crushing the Patriots.
I’m back with my week 4 Survivor picks ahead of Steelers-Browns on Thursday Night Football. Survivor involves picking a team each week to win. If you win, you move forward, if you lose in most cases. I’m in a pool with four entries, but it’s also a double-elimination pool. I lost one of my entries for two weeks thanks to the Chargers and Bucs losing in the first two weeks of the season. The other entry is Steelers in Week 1 and then Bucs in Week 2, so I’m down to one strike there. I made three picks last week, with two 49ers and a Chiefs pick keeping me going for another week.
Below I have a look at the safest picks, best value picks, and then trap picks. I’ll post my own picks at the end. I’ll update on Sunday once I’ve locked in my three picks for the weekend.
I’ve included odds for the favorite in each game, courtesy of FanDuel.
Vikings (-10.5) at Dolphins
Ravens (-11.5) at Titans
We have two double digit favorites this week and both are safe plays. The Vikings are the better game this weekend because there aren’t many options to use them. They are projected favorites at home against the Falcons and Panthers in Week 12 and Week 13, but if you haven’t used them yet, the Jaguars at home against the Titans and the Broncos at home against the Dolphins would be better value.
Vikings (-10.5) at Dolphins
Minnesota is definitely the value play this week. A lot of people will use the Ravens, but the Vikings make the most sense across the board.
Seahawks (-7) over Chargers
Bills (-6.5) at Patriots
Seattle should be able to bounce back after their struggles in Washington, while LA has been a disaster. I’m not ready to give up on the Chargers, and this is a dangerous game for the Seahawks.
I think the Bills will probably roll the Patriots, but there’s no reason to make a divisional pick at this stage of your contests.
I don’t like all my eggs in one basket, but the Vikings are a tempting basket. I’ll probably use the Ravens for one pick and the Vikings for two, but I’ll sleep on it for the next few days.