NFL Week 3 Best Bets: Consensus Picks and Expert Plays

You know there’s a problem when the big network pregame show goes to its pundits and they all pick the same team.

I hope it’s not yours.

That’s why I hesitated to feature it in yesterday’s newsletter six of the seven Circa Friday Football Invitational contestants backed Tennessee +5.5 against Texas.

They cashed in — granted, barely — thanks to a late Vols TD in a 20-17 loss.

So why not tempt fate again today?

The most popular NFL game for Invitational contestants is Raiders of the Saints.

Nine handicappers played the side.

Eight took New Orleans -3.

Jeff Petch: Saints -3 ★ Best bet
Doug Fleming: Saints -3
Weston Stratman: Saints -3
Chris Macero: Saints -3 ★ Best bet
Tony George: Saints -3 ★ Best bet
Randy McKay: Saints -3 ★ Best bet
Jeff Whitelaw: Saints -3 ★ Best bet
Jack Lenenberg: Saints -3

The lone Raiders supporter?

Chris Fallica: Raiders +3

Plus one game in total:

Tony Gordon: Raiders-Saints Over 43.5 ★ Best bet

And it’s not just an Invitation thing. The Saints were also the most popular picks in the Circa Million and the EdgeBoost Average Joe Contest.

>> View All 175 Invitational Picks

The weather won’t be an issue inside the Superdome, though Titans-Giants appears to be the game that bears the brunt of the East Coast storms.

The current forecast calls for rain and strong winds at MetLife Stadium.

The betting market took notice.

Circa opened the total at 43. It’s now down to 37. The Titans and Giants offenses may have contributed to that number as well, right?

VSiN’s Pro Football Tailgate Show with Mitch Moss and Pauly Howard from 9 am-Noon ETfollowed by VSiN Countdown to Kickoff with Stormy Buonantony and Jonathan Von Tobel from Noon-1 pm ET.

Yesterday I asked members of the VSiN Community to make their case for their best bet on Sunday’s NFL card.

Faithful VSiN subscriber Joe Freda came up with an interesting one on Seahawks-Commanders.

Joe points out that the Circa lookahead line is 2. With Sam Darnold and Marcus Mariota now expected to start, the number has grown 7.5.

Joe thinks the market has overreacted twice — and he sees opportunity because of it.

>> Check out Joe’s Commanders-Seahawks Best Bet

BOLT has seven NFL player prop plays for Sunday. Along the largest edge on the board Malik Willis pass attempts.

See All 7 BOLT Plays >>

Circa Survivor kicks off Week 3 with 8,610 entries alive.

Green Bay’s Thursday night loss to Atlanta was eliminated 497 entries before the rest of the weekend even begins. Three more entries failed to submit a pick, leaving 8,110 are currently alive towards Sunday.

More than half of the rest of the field rides on one team:

🏈 Chiefs — 4,398 picks (51.1%)
🏈 Seahawks — 1,111 (12.9%)
🏈 Lions — 743 (8.6%)
🏈 49ers — 591 (6.9%)

>> View All Circa Week 3 Contest Picks

The $100,000-entry Circa Grandissimo is down to 30 entriesand exactly half are on Chiefs Sunday.

🏈 Leaders – 15 of 30
🏈 Seahawks – 6
🏈 Lions – 4
🏈 Charges – 3
🏈 49ers — 2

All 30 entries are concentrated in only five teams.

New Orleans -3 is the No. 1 Week 3 consensus play among 5,790 Circa Million entries, appearing in 1,989 cards.

And to the contestants who played Raiders-Saints, 80.3% made 3-pointers with New Orleans.

The Top 5:

1. Saint -3 — 1,989
2. Jaguar -3 — 1,561
3. Bengals -3.5 — 1,485
4. Lions -6.5 — 1,437
5. Crow -3 — 1,412

>> View All Circa Week 3 Contest Picks

With one day left in the regular season, two playoff spots remain open.

English: The Padres clinched Saturday, leaving the Phillies and Diamondbacks for the final Wild Card spot. Arizona needs a win and a Phillies loss to get in.

AL: The Guardians won the AL Central on Saturday, but the AL West will be decided today. The Rangers and Astros entered the finale tied at 80-81, with Houston holding the tiebreaker. The Astros will face the Athletics while Texas plays Minnesota.

Greg Peterson wants the Phillies in one of his five plays for the day.

>> Check out Greg’s 5 Sunday Best Bets

goodbye: That was a wrap for Greg, who was moving on to other opportunities. I really appreciate everything he has done for VSiN in his various roles over the years.

More MLB Picks & Analysis →

There was no practice or qualifying before today’s race in Kansas, but Steve Makinen was still ready in his final simulation.

Steve’s personal predictions:

Top 5: Bell, Larson, Hamlin, Logano, Gibbs
Top underdogs to consider (+1200 or more): Briscoe, Wallace, Elliott, Gibbs
Struggle favorites: Reddick, Hocevar, Bowman, Berry

>> Check out Steve’s Final Kansas Simulation

More NASCAR Race Previews →

The NHL season is right around the corner, and Jonathan Davis begins rolling out his team-by-team season previews.

He breaks down the futures market, along with each team’s outlook and Stanley Cup chances.

>> Read Jonathan’s NHL Season Previews

And if you’re betting hockey, get our free DonBest Rotation Guide.

It has round numbers for every NHL game through Nov. 30 — a handy reference to keep handy as the season begins.

>> Get DonBest Free Spinning Guide

Go SIC Picks 6-1 in the NFL spread in Week 2including a perfect 3-0 in 3-Star picks.

Former NFL team doctor Dr. David Chao uses injury information to help determine betting opportunities before kickoff.

Get a free week of premium picks — normally $79 — with code VSIN in SICPicks.com.