The Matchup. Side: Jaguars. 
WEEK 7 RECAP: Our ATS picks in Week 8 are decent. Despite this, we still had a losing week. Why? Once again, the live bets crushed us.
I’ll break down picks of three or more units here:
Lions, 3 units (win): This one was stressful for a while as the Lions made some mistakes in Minnesota territory, but in the end they won and conquered.
Jets, 3 units (loss): F**king Jets. The Jets trailed by nine at halftime despite allowing a kickoff return touchdown, but they couldn’t stop the Raiders in the second half.
Braelon Allen ladder, 5 units (loss): The Jets are coached by idiots. You’d think they’d run the ball midway through the second half, especially with Braelon Allen having a career day in the opening half. Instead, they called for just four runs. Instead of running the ball, they opted for Hail Marys the entire time. F**king Jets.
Cardinals, 4 units (win): The only downside is that if the Cowboys had won by 3-7 points, not only would we have won this bet, but we would have won 11 units in our hedge parlay. That would have been awesome.
Colts, 4 units (loss): I thought the Colts would show some heart. They didn’t. They refused to come forward.
Titans, 3 units (win): Unlike the other team that traded a key player (Colts), the Titans showed heart and almost won.
Chargers, 3 units (missing): The Chargers looked to close when they went up 9-3 before halftime, but the Rams woke up and dominated the final 32 minutes. I doubt I’ll be betting on the Chargers again anytime soon.
Justin Herbert passing ladder, 3 units (lost): Justin Herbert looked capable of making a difference in the first half. That completely changed in the second half.
Blake Corum rushing ladder, 3 units (loss): We lost about $4,000 on the ladders in Weeks 7 and 8. Yes.
By the way, some of you may not have noticed that all but two picks per week are in the Premium section. I truly apologize to those disappointed by this, but we have no choice; otherwise, we would have to close shop, and there would be no choice. With ad rates dropping as a result of our terrible economy, and AI search results preventing new people from finding this WalterFootball.com, we had to pivot in a different direction to keep the website alive. We don’t ask much – just 30 cents per day – so if you want to help us, you can sign up for WalterFootball Premium. As a bonus, you won’t see any ads. This website will be very fast and will not crash as a result of any ads.
BALTIMORE OFFENSE: We’re starting with the Ravens because that’s where the news is. Lamar Jackson is out with a thumb injury that could sideline him for the rest of the year. Tyler Huntley is also gone, meaning Joey Fagnano will start.
Fagnano, an undrafted rookie quarterback, had a nice completion to open his afternoon against Buffalo, but struggled for the rest of the game. The fact that Fagnano couldn’t play well against one of the worst defenses in the NFL speaks volumes.
Now, to be fair, Fagnano didn’t take any reps in practice all week, so he should be better prepared for this game. However, he will be going up against a highly ranked Jacksonville defense. The Jaguars are third in defensive EPA and eighth in pressure rate. They will be able to rattle Fagnano and force him into some turnovers.
One hope the Ravens have is to establish a running back with Derrick Henry, but that doesn’t seem likely. Because Fagnano is so bad, the Jaguars don’t have to respect the pass, and they can load the box against Henry. Jacksonville is second against the rush, so Henry doesn’t have much of a chance.
CRIME IN JACKSONVILLE: Trevor Lawrence didn’t have to do much last week, given the Colts’ ineptitude. The Jaguars won despite only 14 passes by Lawrence.
It’s highly likely that the Jaguars will have a quick victory against the Ravens like they did this past Sunday, as Baltimore is 10th against the run. However, I don’t think the Jaguars will be completely shut down on the ground, given how good Liam Coen’s running concepts are.
Lawrence, however, needs to do more this week, and he should have some success in this match. While the Jaguars are eighth in pressure rate, the Ravens are only 18th. They are also 16th against the pass. Baltimore has some holes in its defense that Lawrence and all of his talented weapons can exploit.
RECAP: You know by now that I hate betting on Thursday night games. These contests tend to be sluggish because teams can’t recover from a three-day break. It’s amazing that Roger Goodell says he cares about player safety and still makes teams play each other every Thursday night. It would be great if Thursday night games exclusively featured the teams that are coming, but Goodell really doesn’t care if players get hurt.
This, however, is a rare place where I will bet on a Thursday night game simply because I think one team has a distinct advantage over the other.
Fagnano will get more practice reps this week, but what kind of skills do the Ravens have? They have to prepare for this game with only three days rest, so Fagnano will not have enough time to prepare for such a tough opponent. We’ve seen some miraculous performances from rotten quarterbacks in Thursday games over the years like Nick Mullens and David Blough, but they haven’t come up against a defense ranked in the top three.
I’ve tracked how backup quarterbacks have performed against top 12 defenses over the years, and they’re just 24-37 against the spread over the past few seasons. If the Jaguars have a middling or worse defense, Fagnano might have a chance with less practice time, but Jacksonville’s defense is very good and will hold him and the rest of Baltimore’s one-dimensional offense at bay.
I’m not crazy about this game, since it’s a Thursday night, but the Jaguars are worth a bet of 2-3 units.
Our Week 9 NFL Picks will be posted throughout the day on Tuesday. follow @walterfootball for updates.
The Motivation. Edge: Crows.
The Jaguars are relieved Lamar Jackson won’t be playing.
The Spread Edge: Crows.
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jaguar -6.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Crows -2.5.
Computer Model: Jaguars -8.5.
The Vegas. Edge: Crows.
Tons of action with the Jaguars.
Percentage of money in Jacksonville: 73% (10,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Crows.
Weather: A slight chance of thunderstorms, 68 degrees. Light wind.
Week 9 NFL Picks: Jaguars 31, Ravens 13
Jaguars -9.5 (2 Units)
Over 42 (0 Units)