The Day After the Day After…when the raw, immediate emotion from the outcome of a game descends into the realm of clarity and the proverbial (or literal) hangover is no longer on the mind. Hereby, a review of Houston’s Bye Week:
Where does Houston stand vis-a-vis the league after the bye? While Houston rested for a week, the chaos didn’t stop. That will likely continue when Houston returns to their schedule. When they start next Sunday in LA, they are no more than 2.5 games behind the Jaguars, possibly down 3.5 games. They still have three division games (all at home) remaining. As for a Wild Card, sitting 11th in the conference doesn’t help their situation. They sit 2.5 games behind New England for last place, with Cleveland, Las Vegas and Baltimore still ahead of them. They have three non-conference games remaining, but all of those are on the road and in December/January. While they are an insane 0-4 at home, they have a winning road record at 2-1. With the remainder of the schedule being 6 road games/4 home games, that might not be the worst thing in the world. On the other end of the spectrum, Houston holds the 8th pick in the 2027 draft. Based on numbers alone, Houston could stay in the draft top 10 if their struggles continue. If the franchise can get solid play from Stroud despite the team’s poor play and decide to give him a second contract, it could be Houston’s game for some hustle and bustle related to the draft pick.
The criticality of November: At 2-5, Houston finds themselves behind the conference leaders. However, there are 10 full games left. To be in legitimate position for a playoff berth, Houston likely needs at least double-digit wins. To reach the usual 10-7 record, Houston needs to go 8-2. In particular, this squad couldn’t go more than 3-1 in November. Arguably, that needs to be 4-0. On the one hand, this past week offered Houston one of the best schedule deals it could have. The LA Chargers are a league worse 0-7 and as tough as any team in the league. The Cleveland Browns have the best record of the November slate at 5-3, but Watson’s play is slipping and they may not see the Texans, who will have a losing record when they travel to Cleveland in two weeks. The Colts come to Houston, but they’re in fire-sale mode and may be without longtime Texans nemesis Jonathan Taylor when they play later in the month. The calendar ends with a visit from the usual nightmare Baltimore Ravens, but after this weekend, with their QB1 and QB2 gone for long periods of time, they could be in a vulnerable state.
On the other hand, that all depends on Houston playing to its potential and not giving up explosive plays like they have. How often have golden paths been gilded for this franchise? November has extra significance because those games are conference matchups, and improving the conference record will be critical to overcoming a slow start for the team if the playoffs are to happen.
Will the result in LA change anything for the Texans’ roster? A win means the team can still have hope for a run. A loss? This doesn’t take the Texans out of the math, but for all intents and purposes, the team will be out of the running. That matchup will end in under 48 hours from the trade deadline. Houston added Harrison and they likely aren’t done talking to other teams. However, if Houston loses, will they start off-loading players to try to recover for the offseason? Houston hasn’t said much, but especially if the squad can’t beat the worst team in the league, it’s going to force some tough discussions on the flight back. As it stands, Houston doesn’t have many players that are easily traded. Sure, a player like Danielle Hunter is on many a wish list, but how many teams can accept a contract and salary cap number? Maybe Xavier Hutchinson was traded not for an improvement, but for some draft capital for next season.
How much improvement can a bye provide? In theory, a bye offers an opportunity to sort out some issues. But the teams only have one week. It’s not like teams can go into a full-up training camp and fix all the issues. Maybe they can put in some new plays or adjust some aspects of their strategy. Coaches can be fired and new staff installed, but that doesn’t always spark the desired change. The desperation firing of Chris Palmer as OC in 2005 did nothing to help the woeful offense and the firing of Bill O’Brien in 2020 did not survive that season.
Will Houston go crazy with their prime-time slots? The schedule makers back-loaded the Texans’ primetime appearances, with a Week 11 Thursday Night game against the Colts, a Week 13 Sunday Night game against Pittsburgh, a Week 16 Christmas Eve game against the Eagles and a Week 17 Monday Night game against the Packers. The Colts game is not worthy of distortion. The Christmas Eve game is also locked, for better or worse. However, the Sunday Night Matchup in Pittsburgh and the Monday Night Game against Green Bay could be skewed. The league has to give 12 days notice and there will be a lot of horse trading between networks. Much rests on Houston remaining in the playoff mix. Pittsburgh and Green Bay are in playoff position and have relatively strong fanbases that help the ratings. However, if Houston plays a string through Thanksgiving, look for one or both of those games to swing. The Texans had a scheduled Sunday Night Game in 2013 skewed to an early afternoon kickoff (their home game against the New England Patriots).
1-2: Houston’s post-bye record under Ryans. In 2023, Houston came off a bye week only to lose an ugly game to a bad Panthers team on the road. In 2024, the team came back from a late bye to beat the Dolphins to clinch the division at home after the Colts lost that day. Last season, Houston had an early bye only to lose a tough Monday Night game at the home of the Super Bowl Champion in Seattle.
.703: Houston’s post-bye winning percentage in the regular season during the Ryan regime: Remember the whole 8-2 target? Well, it might not be completely out of the norm for a group of Ryans. In 2023, the team left it with a bad loss to Carolina but still finished the year 7-4. The late bye skews some of this, as Houston had a Week 14 bye before a 3-game stretch in 11 days, finishing the year 2-2. A 9-game win streak last season did most of the lifting for a 10-2 finish.
Since there are no games or major news that are good or bad for players, we will forego awarding game balls or declarations of stupidity. Those will continue next week.
The second half of the season begins in LA against the 0-7 Chargers. Kickoff is set for 3:05 CST with coverage on CBS/Paramount+ (unless the game is [deservedly] flexed to local public access at 5:30 am Sunday morning). See you all there.