The Matchup. Side: Packers.
WEEK 2 RECAP: Heading into Monday night, we’re in danger of having our worst week since Week 14 of 2024. All of our three-unit plays hit, but three bets on four units and up all lost despite every team we lined up holding a touchdown lead or more in the second half. For some reason, all three of our teams came out on top. To make matters worse, we were killed in the props.
Fortunately, Monday is good. We hit another three-unit bet, and we also completed a Matthew Stafford ladder.
I’ll break down picks of three or more units here:
Jets, 3 units (win): The Jets nearly blew their lead as well. The Packers looked like they could score a touchdown in overtime.
Patriots, 3 units (win): The Patriots didn’t even play, yet they still won easily.
Buccaneers, 4 units (loss): With the Buccaneers up 16-6, it looked like they were about to slam the door on the Browns. Apparently not. Their defense is so awful that they make Deshaun Watson look like a functional quarterback.
Tyler Shough stairs, 3 units (loss): This is the most frustrating loss of dawn. Shough is a mobile quarterback, so one would think he would run if he was behind, especially considering he scrambled four times in the first half. All we needed from him was six rushing yards in the second half amid a double-digit deficit, but the only “runs” he had were quarterback sneaks. I really think something like this wins nine out of 10 times.
Eagles, 5 units (loss): This play opened the opening drive for the Eagles. They can easily get down the field and get into the red zone. They get at least three points, but Jalen Hurts usually throws a pick-six. Regardless, the Eagles went up 14-7 and looked like they would have a good chance to cover, but their defense gave up some big plays to Cam Ward of all quarterbacks.
Jaguar, 5 units (loss): The Jaguars were in control of this game for three quarters. They led 13-6 at halftime and looked like they would lose on a field goal. Instead, Trevor Lawrence kept trying to air the ball to Brian Thomas Jr., who dropped a million passes. Meanwhile, the defense continues to allow Jaylen Waddle to get open for big gains. Liam Coen then committed an unsportsmanlike penalty to gift the Broncos the covering touchdown. This is very frustrating.
Trevor Lawrence ladder, 3 units (lost): A good bet you can make on a ladder is quarterback passing yards on an aggressive team where the script of the game can be flipped. When the Broncos tied the game in the second half, I thought it was a lock to hit because Lawrence had to throw more than expected when we made the halftime bet. Lawrence throws, but Thomas drops everything in sight. What a f**king bum.
49ers, 3 units (win): No need to sweat this game, luckily!
Rams, 3 units (win): Jaxson Dart was hurt, but I think the Rams would have covered.
By the way, some of you may not have noticed that all but two picks per week are in the Premium section. I truly apologize to those disappointed by this, but we have no choice; otherwise, we would have to close shop, and there would be no choice. With ad rates dropping as a result of our terrible economy, and AI search results preventing new people from finding this WalterFootball.com, we had to pivot in a different direction to keep the website alive. We don’t ask much – just 30 cents per day – so if you want to help us, you can sign up for WalterFootball Premium. As a bonus, you won’t see any ads. This website will be very fast and will not crash as a result of any ads.
ATLANTA OFFENSE: We start with the Falcons as news breaks of who their quarterback will be. Cooper Rush started last week but he was so bad that he was benched in favor of Jack Strand. Atlanta doesn’t have to worry about that mess, as Michael Penix Jr. is back in action.
The Packers got good pressure from Lukas Van Ness last week, so that’s something that could bother Penix. Sadly, Penix is the best of Atlanta’s formidable quarterbacks and gives the Falcons the best chance to cover or maybe even win this game. If it was an injured Rush or Tagovailoa, however, one would think Green Bay’s defense would have a strong advantage. This is why Penix’s return is so important.
I don’t think the Packers can crash and focus on the run like they did last week. They were sold against Breece Hall, and will use the same game plan against Bijan Robinson if Rush starts. That changes under center with Penix as he can really get the ball to Drake London and Kyle Pitts. This will obviously help Bijan Robinson.
GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Falcons should also be able to pressure Jordan Love. I didn’t think much of Atlanta’s pass rush heading into the season, but the Falcons have generated 48 quarterback pressures through two games. By comparison, the Packers have just 38.
Granted, much of Atlanta’s pass-rush production has to do with battling Pittsburgh’s anemic offensive line, but the Packers can’t block it either. Green Bay has a miserable front that should continue to be exposed in this game.
I expect the Packers to be unable to run the ball with Josh Jacobs effectively suspended and the offensive line not blocking. Green Bay couldn’t establish any of its average-at-best running backs against Atlanta’s underrated run defense.
Love should be able to connect on some big gains with Christian Watson and Matthew Golden, especially if AJ Terrell isn’t available after getting banged last week. However, the Packers will have some inconsistent possessions due to their poor blocking.
RECAP: I will use the same game plan with the Falcons as last week. I project on Atlanta fading if either Rush or Tagovailoa starts. If Jack Strand, I say I have no opinion on the game due to lack of data, and if Penix, I say we’ll take the Falcons.
That’s my thought process going into this game as well, as the Packers are favored by so many points that Penix is under center. Penix is not a great quarterback by any means, and he is not above average. However, he is a huge upgrade over Rush and his back spasms. Rush missed the ball on London and Pitts. We know Penix can because we saw it last year.
I’m not a fan of betting on a terrible team traveling on a short week, but I think the Falcons are on the right side because of the value of the line. Also, it should be noted that the Packers are playing on a short week off overtime, but the extra session is quick, so I don’t think it applies, especially with Green Bay at home.
Our Week 3 NFL Picks will be posted throughout the day on Tuesday. follow @walterfootball for updates.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Packers will be missing some linemen, as Zach Bako-Bowale and Aaron Banks are gone. Banks wasn’t very good, but Bako-Bowale was their best lineman. The sharp ones recognized it. They lowered this line to +4.5 in some places. I still like the Falcons, but am less optimistic about their chances to cover because of the diminished line.
Pros: FanDuel is giving us a 50-percent boost on this game, up to $25. We’ll bet Matthew Golden the most receiving yards, from +420 to +630.
FanDuel has a 7UP promo where when a team raises your moneyline bet by seven, you automatically win. We’ll bet the Falcons +200 on this promo.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharpshooters destroyed any kind of value we had in the Falcons. They drop the line to +4.5, with the best line being +4.5 +100 at BetMGM. I don’t bet on this game.
The Motivation. Edge: Nothing.
No edges found.
The Spread Edge: Nothing.
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -6.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -6.5.
Computer Model: Packers -7.
The Vegas. Edge: Nothing.
Fair action.
Percentage of money in Green Bay: 52% (238,000 bets)
The Trends. Side: Packers.
Weather: Slight chance of rain, 60 degrees. Light wind.
Week 3 NFL Picks: Packers 23, Falcons 20
Falcons +4.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Less than 43.5 (0 Units) — False; $0
Prop: Matthew Golden most receiving yards +630 (0.25 Units) – FanDuel — False; -$25
Prop: Falcons +200 7UP (0.25 Units) – FanDuel — Correct; +$50
Prop: Bijan Robinson over 153.5 rushing yards -112 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
Prop: Bijan Robinson 175+ rushing yards +290 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$290
Prop: Bijan Robinson 200+ rushing yards +880 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — False; -$100
Falcons 35, Packers 14