Welcome to Week 4 Matchups That Matter.
This article gives you a peek into the process behind our weekly projections and rankings. Below are the key metrics we use to set those numbers, so you can make sharper start/seat calls each week.
With three weeks worth of 2026 data, we’re starting to get a good idea of what all of these offenses and defenses will look like this season.
And this week is the debut of our adjusted fantasy points allowedwhich shows the percentage by which each defense boosted or decreased fantasy production at each position. This is a better metric than raw fantasy points allowed because it takes into account the strength of the opponent for each defense.
As always, check the Week 4 Rankings and your Team Dashboard page for customized starting/seating advice.
Good luck in Week 4!
Maximum Game Total
1. Jaguars and Bengals (51.5)
2. Lions and Panthers (51.0)
3. Patriots and Bills (48.5)
t-4. Cowboys and Texans (48.0)
t-4. Broncos at 49ers (48.0)
t-6. Colts vs. Commanders (47.5)
t-6. Chiefs at Raiders (47.5)
t-6. Falcons at Saints (47.5)
Minimum Game Total
12. Jets at Bears (43.0)
13. Chargers at Seahawks (42.5)
14. Packers and Buccaneers (39.5)
t-15. Steelers at Browns (38.5)
t-15. Dolphins in Vikings (38.5)
Expected points
We can use the Vegas lines to calculate how many points each team is expected to score this week.
Maximum Expected Score
1. Bills (27.5)
t-2. Crows (27.25)
t-2. Lions (27.25)
4. Bengals (27.0)
5. Leaders (26.0)
6. Colts (25.5)
7. 49ers (25.25)
Minimum Expected Score
27. Jets (19.5)
t-28. Browns (18.0)
t-28. Buccaneers (18.0)
30. Chargers (17.75)
31. Titans (16.25)
32. Dolphins (14.0)
Expected Plays
The chart below shows how many plays we project each team will run compared to the league average for the week. More plays = more opportunities for fantasy points.
Most Anticipated Plays
1. Saints (64.0)
2. Lions (63.9)
3. Bears (63.6)
4. Leaders (63.4)
5. Bengals (63.1)
6. Texans (63.0)
Least Expected Play
28. Chargers (60.3)
29. Browns (59.8)
30. Buccaneers (59.4)
31. Titans (59.0)
32. Dolphins (58.3)
Pace Matchups
The chart below shows how each game stacks up in terms of pace compared to the league average for the week. Speed is calculated by averaging the seconds per snap from both teams in each game. Faster games usually produce more plays, which means more fantasy points.
Fastest Game (Average seconds per snap)
1. Lions and Panthers (27.1 seconds)
2. Cowboys and Texans (27.2 seconds)
3. Packers and Buccaneers (27.9 seconds)
4. Falcons at Saints (28.6 seconds)
Slowest Games (Average seconds per snap)
12. Broncos at 49ers (30.7 seconds)
13. Jets at Bears (31.0 seconds)
14. Cardinals at Giants (31.2 seconds)
15. Dolphins in Vikings (31.4 seconds)
16. Jaguars at Bengals (32.2 seconds)
Time Concerns
Back on Sunday morning.
quarterback
Pass Defense Power Rankings
Here’s a look at how each team fared in pass defense DVOA, Pro Football Focus coverage grade, PFF pass rush grade, and EPA allowed per pass through 3 weeks. Teams are ranked by “Pass Defense Power,” which is the average of those 4 metrics.
Week 4 Passing Matchups
This chart plots each team’s Pass Offense Power versus their opponent’s Pass Defense Power. The teams in the lower right quadrant are in the smash spot.
Matchup Upgrades and Downgrades Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Upgrades and Downgrades
The best and worst Week 4 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.
5 Best QB Matchups
1. Daniel Jones vs. Commanders (+73.3%)
2. Jalon Daniels vs. Packers (+69.4%)
3. CJ Stroud vs. Cowboys (+61.6%)
4. Trevor Lawrence of the Bengals (+52.5%)
5. Bryce Young vs. Lions (+45.1%)
5 Worst QB Matchups
28. Sam Darnold vs. Chargers (-25.1%)
29. Malik Willis and Vikings (-32.9%)
30. Josh Allen vs. Patriots (-35.7%)
31. Kirk Cousins vs. Chiefs (-36.4%)
32. Lamar Jackson vs. Titans (-40.9%)
Running Back
Run the Defense Power Rankings
Here’s a look at how each team fared in run defense DVOA, Pro Football Focus run defense grade, and EPA allowed per rush through 3 weeks. Teams are ranked by “Run Defense Power,” which is an average of those 3 metrics.
Week 4 Rushing Matchups
This chart depicts each team’s Run Offense Power compared to their opponent’s Run Defense Power. The teams in the lower right quadrant are in the smash spot.
Matchup Upgrades and Downgrades Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Upgrades and Downgrades
The best and worst Week 4 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.
5 Best RB Matchups
1. Buccaneers vs. Packers (+52.8%)
2. Vikings vs. Dolphins (+31.3%)
3. Lions and Panthers (+30.8%)
4. Bears vs. Jets (+29.3%)
5. Ravens vs. Titans (+28.8%)
5 Worst RB Matchups
28. Giants vs. Cardinals (-27.0%)
29. Saints vs. Falcons (-31.1%)
30. Colts and Commanders (-35.4%)
31. Dolphins in Vikings (-41.6%)
32. Cowboys at Texans (-50.3%)
Wide Receiver
Matchup Upgrades and Downgrades Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Upgrades and Downgrades
The best and worst Week 4 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.
5 Best WR Matchups
1. Buccaneers vs. Packers (+66.8%)
2. Patriots and Bills (+48.0%)
3. Bengals vs. Jaguars (+45.6%)
4. Cowboys at Texans (+37.4%)
5. Eagles vs. Rams (+28.2%)
5 Worst WR Matchups
28. 49ers vs. Broncos (-25.1%)
29. Chargers at Seahawks (-27.4%)
30. Vikings vs. Dolphins (-31.0%)
31. Bears vs. Jets (-32.8%)
32. Raiders Chiefs (-33.7%)
WR/CB Matchup Upgrade
Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba against Chargers CBs Cam Hart and Rodney Shelley
Lions WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams against Panthers CBs Will Lee and Akayleb Evans
Vikings WRs Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison vs. Dolphins CBs Julius Brents, Jason Marshall, and Chris Johnson
Falcons WR Drake London vs. Saints CBs Kool-Aid McKinstry, Quincy Riley, and Jonas Sanker
Texans WR Nico Collins vs. Cowboys CBs DaRon Bland and Shavon Revel
Jets WR Garrett Wilson vs. Bears CBs Malik Muhammad, Jaylon Johnson, and Cam Lewis
Packers WRs Christian Watson and Matthew Golden vs. Buccaneers CBs Zyon McCollum, Benjamin Morrison, and Keionte Scott
Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan vs. Lions CBs DJ Reed, Ennis Rakestraw, and Roger McCreary
Colts WRs Josh Downs and Keenan Allen vs. Commanders CBs Mike Sainristil, Rasul Douglas, and Amik Robertson
Cardinals WRs Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr. vs. Giants CBs Colton Hood and Greg Newsome
Buccaneers WRs Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin vs. Packers CBs Keisean Nixon, Brandon Cisse, and Javon Bullard
Commander WR Stefon Diggs against Colts CB Justin Wally
Browns WR KC Concepcion vs. Steelers CB Jalen Ramsey
WR/CB Matchup Downgrades
Rams WRs Puka Nacua and Davante Adams vs. Eagles CBs Quinyon Mitchell, Riq Woolen, and Cooper DeJean
Cowboys WRs CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens vs. Texans CBs Derek Stingley and Kamari Lassiter
Bills WR DJ Moore against Patriots CBs Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis
Jaguars WRs Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers, and Brian Thomas Jr. vs. Bengals CBs DJ Turner, Daxton Hill, and Jalen Davis
Chargers WRs Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Tre Harris vs. Seahawks CBs Devon Witherspoon, Josh Jobe, and Nehemiah Pritchett
Chiefs WR Rashee Rice against Raiders CB Taron Johnson
Tight End
Matchup Upgrades and Downgrades Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Upgrades and Downgrades
The best and worst Week 4 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.
5 Best TE Matchups
1. Colts vs. Commanders (+193.8%)
2. Texans vs. Cowboys (+129.8%)
3. Panthers vs. Lions (+98.6%)
4. Raiders Chiefs (+76.3%)
5. Lions and Panthers (+71.5%)
5 Worst TE Matchups
28. Jets and Bears (-47.6%)
29. Bengals vs. Jaguars (-49.0%)
30. Bills vs. Patriots (-55.6%)
31. Eagles vs. Rams (-57.8%)
32. Ravens vs. Titans (-60.7%)
Defense/Special Teams
Matchup Upgrades and Downgrades Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Upgrades and Downgrades
The best and worst Week 4 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.
5 Best DST Matchups
1. Saints vs. Falcons (+265.2%)
2. Cardinals at Giants (+200.0%)
3. Ravens vs. Titans (+166.8%)
4. Packers at Buccaneers (+90.7%)
5. Eagles vs. Rams (67.8%)
5 Worst DST Matchups
28. Giants vs. Cardinals (-59.2%)
29. Panthers vs. Lions (-63.6%)
30. Bengals vs. Jaguars (-75.0%)
31. Texans vs. Cowboys (-82.9%)
32. Broncos at 49ers (-126.6%)
Kicker
Matchup Upgrades and Downgrades Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Upgrades and Downgrades
The best and worst Week 4 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.
5 Best K Matchups
1. Tyler Loop vs. Titans (+150.1%)
2. Trey Smack and Buccaneers (+88.0%)
3. Andres Borregales on the Bills (+79.4%)
4. Spencer Shrader and Commanders (+66.7%)
5. Chris Boswell and Browns (+50.0%)
5 Worst K Matchups
28. Tyler Bass vs. Patriots (-35.8%)
29. Harrison Butker and Raiders (-41.5%)
30. Jason Sanders and Bears (-43.3%)
31. Ryan Fitzgerald vs. Lions (-43.4%)
32. Chad Ryland and Giants (-73.6%)