Fantasy Football Start Sit Week 4: Backup QBs Loom Large

Slow starts and injuries are starting to pile up. That’s forcing many fantasy managers to find alternate players to start, and to sit others who were expected to be reliable options. 

Knowing which player to target is a crucial part of weekly preparation. 

Your Team Intel page is an invaluable weapon, applying our award-winning weekly projections to your custom scoring to help you set your optimal lineup.

QB to Start

CJ Stroud is set to rebound with his top WR back

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

Stroud is coming off his lowest-scoring week of the young season. He completed 16 of 27 pass attempts for 167 yards and a TD, while adding 10 yards on the ground on his way to a QB20 finish in Week 3.

Stroud is averaging just 1.8 rushing points per game, so low passing volume will typically mean to a low-ranking week — especially without hyper-efficient passing.

For the second straight week, his efficiency dropped. After posting 7.2 yards per attempt in Week 1, Stroud has fallen below 6.5 in back-to-back games, ranking outside the top 20 QBs in both weeks.

But Stroud’s that dip coincided with the Texans losing Nico Collins to a hamstring injury. Collins returned to practice this week and appears likely to play. That return meets a Cowboys matchup that has given up the third-most points to QBs.

Stroud lands on the fringe of the top 12 in our Week 4 QB rankings.

QB to Sit

The details of his Week 3 scoring matter.

Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

Despite being held under 200 passing yards for the second time this season, Nix finished as a QB1 in Week 3. He completed 17 of 34 pass attempts for 186 yards with a TD and an INT, while adding 7 yards and a TD on the ground.

Nix dropped to 29th among all QBs with 5.9 adjusted yards per attempt this season following his latest underwhelming passing performance against the Rams. That passing struggle isn’t new for Nix, who ranked 29th last season in adjusted yards per attempt.

The third-year QB is averaging a career-low 2.5 rushing points per game coming off last year’s ankle fracture, which has caused his lack of passing production to become more noticeable.

The Broncos QB has a difficult path to buck his passing struggles this week, facing a 49ers defense that has allowed the eighth-fewest points to QBs this season.

RBs to Start

Trust Aaron Jones’ workload in a favorable matchup

Cam Skattebo, New York Giants

The Giants offense has been miserable, failing to score a TD and ranking dead last in points since Jaxson Dart went down in the first quarter of Week 2.

That led to Skattebo ranking as the RB21 over the past two weeks despite being one of just five RBs with at least a 60% carry share and 15% target share over that span.

But since QB Jameis Winston took over, Skattebo ranks seventh among RBs with a 15.1% target share. Winston should throw more this week than his 22 pass attempts against Tennessee (31st in the league for the week), which means more projected receiving work and production for Skattebo.

Pair that with his 57.5% carry share that ranks 18th among RBs this season, and Skattebo belongs in your lineup against a Cardinals defense that’s given up the seventh-most rushing yards.

Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings

The 10th-year RB has produced at least 10 PPR points in each of his first three games this season, but his workload since fellow RB Jordan Mason went down gives Jones RB1 upside.

Over the past two weeks, only Chase Brown has handled a higher carry share than Jones’ 78.4%. He turned that into a 105-yard rushing game and then 58 yards against a Buccaneers defense that has given up the second-fewest rushing yards this season.

Jones also got a 24.0% target share in Kyler Murray’s Week 3 return, trailing only Jahmyr Gibbs among RBs for the week.

His high-end workload meets a Dolphins defense that has given up the third-most points to RBs, making Jones a start in Week 4.

RBs to Sit

Opportunity might be there, but situation’s dragging these guys down.

Omarion Hampton, Los Angeles Chargers

Hampton and the whole Chargers offense have been underwhelming through the first three weeks. The second-year RB ranks 24th in PPR points per game in an offense that ranks 29th in points.

The issue hasn’t been the rushing workload though. Hampton is accounting for a 61.7% carry share that ranks 13th among all RBs and ranks 14th in rushing yards.

He needs better efficiency in that area, because the receiving opportunities have lagged. The Chargers RB has yet to see a 10% target share in any game and has averaged just 0.4 receiving points per game.

Now Hampton faces a Seahawks defense that is allowing the fifth-fewest points to RBs, making him a sit in Week 4.

Ollie Gordon II, Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins lost De’Von Achane to a torn right ACL. That left the opportunity for Gordon to finish with a career-high 17 carries for 41 yards and a TD plus 3 catches for 14 yards.

Gordon finished as the RB13 in Week 3 with 14.5 PPR points and will continue to see elevated opportunities. But will he keep the backfield lead?

In his limited work last season, Gordon was the least efficient Dolphins RB. His 2.8 yards per carry trailed Jaylen Wright’s 4.1 and De’Von Achane’s 5.7 by significant margins. He also trailed well behind his teammates in yards after contact and Pro Football Focus elusive rating (among other metrics:

Wright, who missed last week’s game, is practicing this week and says the foot that kept him out is now “ready to go.” We don’t know how much Wright will touch the ball after getting just 3 touches through the first two weeks and then missing a game, but that uncertainty affects Gordon’s workload projection as well.

All that uncertainty goes up this week against a Vikings defense that has allowed the third-fewest points to RBs.

If you paid up for Gordon on waivers this week because you need him to start, he does look like the best bet for playing time against Minnesota. But he’s far from an attractive play for Week 4.

Wide Receivers to Start

Maybe the Mariota-McLaurin connection’s better than we remembered.

Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders

McLaurin is coming off his best fantasy performance of the season and did so with a backup QB against a Seahawks defense that had allowed the fewest points to WRs heading into Week 3.

The veteran WR scored 19.7 PPR points for a WR14 ranking after hauling in six of 9 targets for 77 yards and a TD.

The connection between him and Marcus Mariota isn’t new. Sunday marked the duo’s 12th game together, and McLaurin has averaged 14.0 PPR points per game in those weeks. That’s actually higher than McLaurin’s 13.4 PPR points per game across his other 98 career outings.

After commanding a season-high 30% target share with Mariota, McLaurin is likely to get another game with him as his QB.

This time he gets a Colts defense that’s given up the third-most receiving yards, making McLaurin a start for Week 4. Check out the WR rankings for your format to see exactly where he lands.

Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts

WR Alec Pierce’s early departure in Week 2 (heel injury) has propelled Downs into working as one of the league’s most targeted WRs. His 30.8% target share over the past two weeks ranks ninth at the position.

Downs’ 13.4 PPR points per game in that span ranks as the WR23, but he had a chance to finish much higher after accumulating 4 red-zone targets, a total topped by only five WRs. Unfortunately, none of those targets has produced a TD.

On the season, Downs is leading Colts WRs in targets, yards, and PPR points per game, which should continue with Pierce on IR.

This week brings a matchup against a Commanders defense that has allowed the most points to WRs by a wide margin: 20.1 PPR points more than the next team. That makes Downs a fairly start in Week 4.

WRs to Sit

Tough to see this wideout overcoming an undrafted rookie QB.

Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Egbuka is one of just eight WRs to score at least 10 PPR points in each week to start this season. The second-year WR has also accounted for at least 75 air yards in every contest.

But none of that matters this week.

The Buccaneers are expected to miss QB Baker Mayfield for the next three weeks due to a thumb injury, leaving undrafted rookie QB Jalon Daniels to start in his place.

Daniels spent six years at Kansas before going undrafted and signing with Tampa. He never stood out as a college passer, peaking at 20.1 passing points per game as a junior before producing less over three more years in college.

Egbuka should remain the top Buccaneers WR this week, but that projection comes in an offense led by an undrafted rookie QB who was a suspect passer even in college. It’s also worth noting that Egbuka sits just 27th among WRs in expected PPR points per game and 35th in target share through three weeks.

Unexciting usage and an iffy QB make the Bucs’ top wideout a guy you should bench in Week 4.

Devaughn Vele, New Orleans Saints

Vele has benefited from the Saints throwing the ball more than any other team. QB Tyler Shough’s 44.0 pass attempts per game are 2.7 more than the closest QB.

That’s why Vele ranks 23rd among WRs with 7.3 targets per game despite a 17.7% target share that ranks 52nd.

Although the Saints have thrown the ball more than any other team, they rank a mere seventh in neutral pass rate. That indicates the high passing volume has been forced by game script more than offensive plan.

This week pits them against the Falcons, who present an interesting case.

Atlanta has scored the sixth-fewest points in the league through three weeks. We can obviously blame that primarily (wholly?) on Cooper Rush. When QB Michael Penix Jr. returned for last Thursday night’s visit to Green Bay, the Falcons exploded for 35.

Expect this week’s Falcons to land between those extremes. New Orleans arrives as a 2.5-point home favorite, while Atlanta ties for just 18th in implied team total. The Falcons could certainly win this game, but we’re not expecting the Saints to play from behind as they did against Detroit and Baltimore.

Even last week’s competitive contest with the Raiders found Vele drawing 4 of his 6 targets in the second half, when Tyler Shough jumped from 16 attempts before halftime to 26 after.

Vele’s not a “must” sit for Week 4, but make sure you don’t overrate either the safety or upside in his usage and production to date.

Tight End to Start

Pitts set to finally break through after slow start.

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

Deeming Pitts’ start to the season underwhelming would be an understatement. His 1.3 PPR points per game trails 78 other TEs.

The Falcons TE has underproduced relative to expectations before, but it generally hasn’t been for a lack of usage. Last season, Pitts’ 22.7% target share ranked third among all TEs. There wasn’t a week in which he had less than a 10% target share.

He has yet to account for a 10% target share in any game this season. Pitts is averaging just an 8.2% target share, ranking 37th among TEs.

Michael Penix Jr. produced the eighth-highest adjusted yards per attempt last week in his season debut, but did so on low passing volume with the team taking the lead in the second quarter and keeping it.

We should see an uptick in passing volume this week on the road against a favored Saints team that ranks 11th in scoring, first in total plays, and seventh in most points allowed. On top of that, New Orleans has allowed the fourth-most PPR points to TEs.

Start Pitts.

TE to Sit

Temper expectations off breakout performance.

Kenyon Sadiq, New York Jets

Sadiq broke out in a major way last week, finishing as the TE4 in just his third game. He hauled in seven of his 8 targets for 105 yards and a TD for 23.5 PPR points.

Thanks to his first career rushing TD in Week 1, Sadiq has two TE1 finishes over the last three weeks.

But the rookie TE also benefited from a Lions defense that had allowed the most points to TEs entering Week 3. Sadiq added target share with the Jets down WR Adonai Mitchell and TE Mason Taylor, on top of already missing WR Omar Cooper Jr.

Mitchell and Taylor look likely to return this week, and the Jets face a Bears defense that has allowed the seventh-fewest points to TEs. The past two Chicago opponents have failed to throw a TD pass.

Sadiq’s 14.7% target share ranks 17th among all TEs, which sets the floor lower than his fantasy results to date might make you think.