If the Houston Texans are going to return to the NFL playoffs for a fourth consecutive year, they will have to dig themselves out of a hole. Three losses in the season opener put them behind and made them one of five winless teams in the league. For most teams, this kind of early season collapse would cause panic. In fact, the four other 0-3 teams are combined in a group that is widely considered the lowest tier in the NFL pecking order.
The Texans are not part of that conversation. The reasons they have avoided the same discourse tied to the Miami Dolphins, Tennessee Titans, and other bottom dwellers is that they are more talented and boast an elite defense. Two, just last year they climbed out of an 0-3 rut to reach the postseason.
That massive defense didn’t live up to expectations in Weeks 1-3. Houston’s offense also sputtered. However, there is room to believe they can turn their fortunes around and get back on the road to the playoffs.
Here’s why coach DeMeco Ryans could make his fourth divisional round appearance in as many years to open his career.
Bad luck will return to the mean
Last year’s 0-3 start was a product of bad offense and misery. Those factors have played similar roles in the first three games of this season. The Texans are tied with the Los Angeles Chargers for the worst luck rating in the NFL, according to TeamRankings, and it’s not hard to see why. Coin-flip plays and flukes strongly oppose them.
Take Kamari Lassiter’s dropped interception in Week 1, for example. The standout cornerback had a chance to seal a victory against the Buffalo Bills but didn’t hang on to a straightforward takeaway opportunity, and the Bills capitalized with a game-winning touchdown. If he holds the ball, the Texans will open the year at 1-0 with a win against the team most agree is the best in the league.
Even with that dropped pick taken out of the equation, the Texans are essentially in a league of their own in the bad luck department. Tom Bliss (NFL senior manager, football operations data scientist) shared eye-opening metrics showing how opponents’ dropped passes, opponents’ field goals and extra points, and fumble recoveries make the Texans an incredibly unlucky squad. The Texans had the worst luck in every category, by win probability, which added up by nearly three.
According to Bliss data, Spencer Shrader’s 53-yard, go-ahead field goal for the Indianapolis Colts last week was the second most impactful play of the season from a luck standpoint. It was the difference in the Texans’ 19-17 loss.
Nico Collins should bring the offense to life
Houston’s offense has been a liability in each of the last two losses. A six-point effort against the Cincinnati Bengals and a 17-point outing in Indianapolis will never get the job done, even if the defense is starting to return to form. Because the unit on the other side of the ball will keep opponents in check, all the offense has to do is be relatively competent. A combined 23 points with no more than 70 rushing yards in any of those games is not a competent offense.
How much of that is because Nico Collins isn’t in the lineup, though? The star wide receiver suffered a hamstring injury in practice in Week 2, forcing the Texans to change their entire offensive approach. He was the top target on the roster in Week 1 and led the way with seven catches for 75 yards and a touchdown. With Collins on the field, Houston put up 31 points against the Bills and nearly topped their Super Bowl opponents.
Texans offense in 2026
Points per game | Yards per game | EPA per play | |
With Collins | 31 | 381 | +0.05 |
Collins is absent | 11.5 | 298.5 | -0.22 |
Quarterback CJ Stroud accounted for more than twice as many completions and yards when targeting Collins downfield compared to targeting any other receiver, despite Collins playing just 60.4% of the Texans’ offensive snaps over the past two seasons combined, according to Next Gen Stats. Collins’ absence was undoubtedly a major culprit in Stroud’s struggles. Stroud is the second-worst passer in the league while under pressure, so once his safety valve returns, perhaps he’ll both get the ball in his hands more quickly and accurately.
Collins returned to practice this week and appears on track to play against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday.
A favorable schedule creates opportunities
For a team that finished second in its division last year, Houston has drawn a very good schedule in 2026. Two of the toughest tests are gone. The rest of the record is tied for third-easiest by opponent winning percentage and seventh-easiest by ESPN FPI rating. Poor performances from the Los Angeles Chargers, Green Bay Packers and many others make the schedule more favorable than it originally was.
For the record alone, the New York Giants, Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers all qualify as three of the Texans’ top six opponents. While each has more wins than losses, few would consider them strong contenders in the postseason.
- Remaining opponents above .500: Jaguars (x2), Giants, Browns, Ravens, Steelers, Eagles
- Remaining opponents below .500: Cowboys, Titans (x2), Chargers, Colts, Commanders, Packers
If the Texans play more like themselves in 2025 once Collins returns to action, there are stretches in the schedule that help produce winning streaks. While it will be tough to close out the season on a nine-game heater like they did a year ago, they should be favored more often than not.