As we continue our search for NFL player props where I can see OptaAI’s player prop projections, a few plays jump out at me in Week 6. We have some opportunistic matchups, a little running back drama, and a quarterback injury that allows me to jump into a situation I really like.
Tre Tucker Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Through five games, Buffalo has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards (187.4) to opposing wide receivers. I already have plays with Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty to check their receiving yardage totals. If you want to add Kirk Cousins completions or passing yards to the mix, I won’t talk to you either.
And now I’m adding Tre Tucker Over 38.5 receiving yards because that number is too low.
For starters, the Raiders are home underdogs. If the oddsmakers have pegged this game correctly, Las Vegas should find itself throwing the football to keep pace with Buffalo. Tucker has cleared this number in four consecutive games and ranks third on the Raiders in targets this season. But what really stands out is how consistently Buffalo allows opposing receivers to clear this number. In some games, it’s not just a receiver. It is at least two.
Here’s the damage in five weeks:
Week 1 vs. Dolphins: Caleb Douglas (94 yards), Malik Washington (53 yards)
Week 2 at Chargers: Tre’ Harris (53 yards)
Week 3 at Saints: Chris Olave (107 yards), Devaughn Vele (39 yards)
Week 4 vs. Chiefs: Tyquan Thornton (111 yards), Xavier Worthy (70 yards)
Week 5 at Patriots: Kyle Williams (91 yards), DeMario Douglas (65 yards), Efton Chism (57 yards)
That’s 10 opposing wide receivers that have eclipsed Tucker’s 38.5-yard number in just five games. This is exactly the type of matchup Klint Kubiak should be looking to exploit. The Raiders don’t have another wide receiver who consistently commands the looks that Tucker gets, and the game script should create plenty of opportunities.
OptaAI agrees, projecting Tucker for 48.68 receiving yards, a +12.9% edge on the surface.
Najee Harris Over 23.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The Giants had a golden opportunity last week to beat the Washington Commanders and take the NFC East lead.
Instead, New York’s Cam Skattebo went into overtime in field goal range at Washington’s 24-yard line. The Giants were lucky to escape with a tie, but there’s no question that was a huge missed opportunity.
Skattebo can be a bit unserious at times, and after that costly mistake, I wouldn’t be surprised if John Harbaugh decided to mix Najee Harris and Tyrone Tracy even more this week, especially considering the matchup.
The Saints are allowing the most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs this season (133.4). With Jameis Winston under center, the Giants would also be wise to establish some balance offensively instead of asking Winston to throw it all over the yard. We saw how that movie would end.
Harris was signed late in the offseason for a reason. He won’t give you the burst of Skattebo, but he can still be an effective and reliable runner, especially against a defense that has struggled to stop the run. Harris has averaged 23.5 rushing yards in two of his four games this season. The math here isn’t particularly complicated. Give him seven or eight carries against this Saints front, and he should have a legitimate shot to clear that number.
Between the matchup, the potential for a slightly expanded role and the Giants’ need to protect Winston from himself, I like Harris to get enough work.
OptaAI agrees, projecting Harris for 35.75 rushing yards, a +24.4% edge on the surface.
Chuba Hubbard Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
This is a prop that I initially liked but was planning on moving away from.
When Carolina opened as a 1.5-point underdog in Philadelphia, I had some reservations. The matchup is enticing, but I generally don’t like back rushing overs on road underdogs, especially when the count is north of 70 yards.
Then Jalen Hurts was ruled out with blood clots, and suddenly the Panthers went from underdogs on the road to 3.5-point favorites. That’s a pretty significant improvement when you’re betting on the workload of a running back.
Instead of potentially abandoning the run while playing from behind, Carolina could find itself feeding Hubbard in the fourth quarter to put the Eagles away. And let’s stop pretending this is the same Philadelphia defense that once dominated the line of scrimmage. The Eagles are tied for allowing the 10th-most rushing yards to opposing running backs this season (100.4).
Just look at what they’ve allowed recently:
Week 5: Bhayshul Tuten: 72 rushing yards
Week 4: Kyren Williams: 80 rushing yards
Week 3: D’Andre Swift: 84 rushing yards
That’s three consecutive examples of running backs clearing Hubbard’s numbers against Philadelphia. Meanwhile, Hubbard settled into a featured role with Jonathon Brooks on injured reserve.
In the two games since Brooks went down, Hubbard has delivered:
At Cleveland: 19 carries, 82 yards
vs. Detroit: 20 carries, 122 yards
That’s 39 carries for 204 yards over his last two games.
Now Carolina comes off its bye week with a rested Hubbard, a favorable matchup and a legitimate chance to get over .500. This is a big spot for the Panthers, and I expect Hubbard to be a major part of the game plan. If Carolina plays from the front as the spread now suggests, the volume should be there.
OptaAI agrees, projecting Hubbard for 80.35 rushing yards, a +5.6% edge on the surface.