On Monday, October 5, the New Orleans Saints host the Atlanta Falcons at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. Keep reading for odds, picks, and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 4 NFL Betting Hub to check out all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for the best bets from all our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How to Watch Falcons vs. Saints
when: Monday, October 5 at 8:20 pm ET
where: Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana
Channels: ESPN
Falcons vs. Saints Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook are accurate as of Sunday, October 4. Look around for the best prices!
moneyline: Saints -130, Falcons +110
Spread: Saints -1.5 (-115), Falcons +1.5 (-105)
Total: Over 47.5 (-115), Under 47.5 (-105)
Analysis of the Falcons vs
If you’re a VSiN Pro subscriber, you may have noticed that I picked the Falcons at +3 earlier in the week. If you’re not, I highly suggest jumping into one of our many subscription options. That number is long gone, so you don’t get a field goal if you like Atlanta. However, this is still a game I expect the Falcons to win.
These are two teams that really fancy their chances in the NFC South, and I’m pretty high on both of them. However, I believe Atlanta is the stronger team right now.
Heading into Week 4, the Falcons were eighth in the NFL in EPA/Play Allowed (-0.062). While Atlanta hired offensive-minded head coach Kevin Stefanski, the defense looked better to start this season. The Falcons have been a top-five defense against the run (-0.312), and they are in the top half of the league against the pass (0.030).
Atlanta’s rushing defense was huge in this particular matchup. The Saints have been great on the ground to start this year, but they are up against a tough defensive front. They will also have to attack it without Travis Etienne, who is their RB1. New Orleans has some other good options in the backfield, but this isn’t a game where you want to drop your top man.
I also like the Falcons chances to move the ball against this Saints defense. Stefanski is definitely a great offensive coach, and his offense looks even better with Michael Penix Jr. for Cooper Rush last game. Atlanta now comes into this one with some extra time to prepare, and the team will be going up against a New Orleans defense that ranks in the bottom 10 of the league in EPA/Play Allowed (0.077).
Home-field advantage obviously means little in these types of games, but the Falcons look like the better team on both sides of the ball. That’s not something I’m interested in passing on.
Kellen Moore happens to be just 1-3 straight-up against division opponents, and the Saints are 0-4 both SU and against the spread in home games with a total of 42.5 to 49 points under him.
Falcons vs. Saints Player Props
LEAN: Drake London Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-117)
I won’t play London to go over his yardage total, but our WR/CB Matchup Tool has a good story on him. London will primarily work against Quincy Riley, and that matchup is the 12th most favorable in the database for this week. It’s one of my favorite tools we have, so the numbers don’t matter much. Riley currently grades out at just 68.4 in coverage at Pro Football Focus. London is also coming off a game with nine catches for 194 yards. He would be a popular choice in this one.
Falcons vs. Saints Pick
As previously mentioned, I have Atlanta +3 in this game. I also tossed the Falcons moneyline at +130. However, I will still play Atlanta today. I also don’t hate the idea of buying the Falcons up to a touchdown and parlaying it into the moneyline of the Cowboys in their Thursday night meeting with the Buccaneers.
Bet: Falcons +3 (-118) and Falcons ML (+130 – 0.5 units)