Each week, I’ll publish two film room previews: one focused on offense and one on defense. They’re primarily based on film, focusing on schemes, tendencies and matchups that could shape Sunday’s game, with all stats coming from the Fantasy Points Data Suite. I’m also recording a video version for Patreon, where I break down the plays in more detail and where you can support my work even more.
The Bears’ defense has a distinct personality. Dennis Allen likes to pressure the quarterback, play aggressively behind him, and trust his corners to survive tough matchups on the outside. I see a lot of opportunities to score. The Bears have some good individual defenders, but I don’t think they have the talent on the back end to play it aggressively without giving up opportunities in both the passing and running game.
The first thing that stands out is how willing the Bears are to leave their outside corners exposed. They played man coverage on 43.3% of the snaps through two games, more than double the league average, and they often featured a high safety behind it. This is not a defense that spends the entire game protecting its corners with two safeties deep. Allen likes to challenge receivers, crowd the line of scrimmage, and make the quarterback beat tight coverage before the rush arrives.
Jaylon Johnson has allowed the most receiving yards of any cornerback through two weeks, and while I would never judge a player by that number, I can see problems with the film. Some of these are Johnson’s play; some of it is the position the scheme puts him in. If the Bears continue to leave him isolated on the outside, the Eagles will have to give him a try. This should be a week for Jalen Hurts to give his receivers opportunities on the sideline.
Tyrique Stevenson also had problems on the outside. The Panthers attacked the Bears with variations of the double move and were very successful. When a corner is playing aggressively with limited help behind him, one misstep can turn into a big play. I’d like to see the Eagles use bunches and switch releases to give Dontayvion Wicks and DeVonta Smith cleaner releases, then take shots once they’ve established those threats.
Stevenson hurt his hamstring against the Vikings and was limited in practice on Friday, so I’d avoid thinking he’ll play or he won’t. If he does play, the Eagles will still have to test how well he can turn and run. Smith was also limited on Friday with a hamstring injury, so the matchup will depend on the health of both players on Monday.
I wasn’t particularly impressed when the Bears moved away from man coverage, either. There were communication errors in the zone, and it was early enough in the season for offenses to emphasize their coverage rules with changes in motion and formation. The Eagles must learn how the Bears handle receivers crossing the formation and how quickly their defenders pass routes to each other. If Allen responds by playing man, the Eagles will get the individual matchups they should want. If he plays zone, there are opportunities to test communication.
One young defensive back I would be wary of challenging unnecessarily is Malik Muhammad. Rookie slot corner Muhammad is perhaps the Bears’ best player in the secondary through two games. His blocking against the Panthers was incredible, and he’s already shown he can contribute as a blitzer. He’s a fourth-round pick, but he doesn’t look like a player the Eagles should target simply because of his inexperience. My preference is to work out the matches and let Allen decide how much help he is willing to give his corners.
Dayo Odeyingbo was their most effective starting rusher against the Vikings, while Grady Jarrett remains capable of causing problems inside. Montez Sweat is still a player the Eagles should consider, and Austin Booker made an impact in limited opportunities last week. However, it doesn’t look like a front that consistently overwhelms offensive lines with four rushers. They are not that talented.
That doesn’t mean the Eagles can ignore Allen’s pressure packages. His double A-gap mug look, with linebackers lined up on either side of the center, is designed to declare the protection itself before the offense knows who the rusher really is. A defender who looks poised to blitz can drop off, while the pressure comes from elsewhere. Even without an elite four-man rush, this defense can win if the quarterback hesitates and the receivers take time to separate. I expect Hurts and the Eagles offensive line to spend a lot of time defining those looks before the snap.
Hurts will have to figure out where his quick throw is if the Bears are going to carry more rushers than the Eagles can block. Receivers need routes that can win quickly against man coverage. I also want the Eagles to stay ready to use play-action and attack vertically when they get the chance. The Bears were happy to play aggressive single-high coverage against the Vikings, even with Justin Jefferson on the outside. That gives the offense opportunities if its receivers win early or the linebackers take a step toward the run. The Bears have allowed explosive passes on 11.9% of pass plays through two weeks. They give opponents a chance.
The Bears’ run defense has been inconsistent. They allowed a negative EPA per rush, which suggests they prevented really damaging results overall, but opponents still succeeded on 58.7% of their runs. Aaron Jones had 105 yards on 23 carries last week. I noticed edge setting problems in both games, especially on the left side of their defense.
That should be interesting to the Eagles, even if their own run game is disappointing. They lean heavily on zone runs without consistently creating space for Saquon Barkley, and I don’t think the solution is to call outside the zone more often and hope it suddenly works. I’d like to see them call some crack-toss, pin-pull, and other perimeter variations that could help Barkley move laterally while forcing the Bears’ edge defenders to fit well against the run.
Grady Jarrett is still playing well. At 33, he may still be the best defender on this unit, and he can impact both the run and the pass. He’s not Jeffery Simmons, who the Eagles dealt with last week, but that doesn’t make him an easy assignment. If the Eagles’ interior offensive line struggles again, Jarrett will make plays in the backfield.
Finally, the Bears had some poor tackling in space. Former Eagle TJ Edwards had an inconsistent start, and their edge defenders didn’t consistently contain the run. The Eagles must make this defense run laterally and tackle Barkley in space. That’s a better use of this matchup than repeatedly sending in stacked boxes and hoping he does something.
The running game is also important because it changes what Allen can call. I don’t want the Eagles repeatedly facing third-and-longs against mugged A-gap fronts. They need a good run early, but they must also be ready for early slumps.
The Bears are aggressive enough to make it uncomfortable, and I expect them to attack. However, the Eagles offense was more talented in this matchup. I’m expecting another good game by Jalen Hurts, and I’m hoping the run game can start to pick up as well.
The uncertainty at the Bears quarterback doesn’t change my view of what the Eagles offense needs to do. I’m not going to come up with an offensive game plan assuming Vic Fangio’s defense is going to shut down the Bears. The Bears ran all over the Eagles last year, and Ben Johnson’s run game can still make the game difficult no matter who plays quarterback. If the Eagles spend Monday night just trying to avoid mistakes against this defense, I think they’re asking for trouble.
Thanks for reading! I’d love to hear your thoughts, so feel free to comment below and ask any questions. If you still want to support me, please see my Patreon here! If you want to see a preview, here it is!