The Philadelphia Eagles are riding a five-game losing streak entering Sunday Night Football against the Washington Commanders, a team they defeated in the season opener. Can the Birds win a game for the first time since September 20?
To preview this Week 8 NFC East battle, I reached our enemies in Hogs Haven. The friendly Andrew Y kindly took the time to answer my questions about this upcoming battle. Let’s see the answers.
1 – In our Q&A exchange before Week 1, you said that Commanders are “one of the most boom-bust teams in the NFL.” There are clearly more busts than booms right now. What’s the biggest reason why?
In short, I’d say: injuries, two rookie coordinators figuring out how to call plays, and poor game preparation and decision making that I mostly blame on HC Dan Quinn. I should also throw in that GM Adam Peters deserves some blame for ruining the Center situation in the offseason by starting week 1 with career backup IOL Nick Allegretti as our starting Center. On the plus side for Peters, he finds a usable Center off the scrapheap in Lucas Patrick who has been starting at Center since week 3.
In terms of injuries, the Commanders week 5 injury report has 23 players. I don’t remember seeing another damage report that long! Many of those players are in good shape and likely to play this week, but some key remaining absences are LT Laremy Tunsil (out for the year), RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt (the best pure rusher on the roster), WR Terry McLaurin (torn patellar tendon, may never be the same player again), and DT Javon Kinlaw (meets our better IDL).
In terms of the coordinators, we knew it would be risky to have two coordinators who had never called plays in the NFL before and that was happening. On defense, DC Daronte Jones is trying to implement the complex and almost unique defense of Minnesota’s Brian Flores. The defense is difficult to implement because it requires players to be very versatile, with even DTs occasionally dropping into coverage and CBs messing with the QB. Even in Minnesota, Flores’ defense ranked 16th in yards allowed in its first two years before being 3rd last year and 1st this year, and I think a lot of the improvement is due to players getting better at understanding their responsibilities. In addition, Daronte Jones is a first-time NFL player and I think shows a little slowness in adapting to mid-game changes of opposing offenses. On the other side of the ball, OC David Blough is a first-time playcaller with only two years of coaching experience and it occasionally shows. He has a good playbook, but plays take too long to call, players take too long to set, and Blough hasn’t adapted well enough to blitzes by developing hot routes on his plays.
In Dan Quinn terms, it’s a lot. Although the Commanders are relatively middle-of-the-road in terms of penalty count, they are exceptional at taking penalties that erase big plays. The Commanders have the most penalty yards in the NFL right now, and I think that comes down to coaching and ultimately, Dan Quinn. In addition, Quinn’s in-game decisions have value in team games. Had he called for a field goal on the last play in overtime against the Giants, the Commanders would have almost certainly won that game. Most importantly, though, he’s supposed to be a defensive head coach, but the Commanders’ defense has been atrocious the entire time he’s been here. The defense is better under Jones, but it’s still the 9th worst defense in terms of points allowed.
2 – The Commanders decided not to send Dan Quinn off their bye. How long do you think he left?
The reports are fairly unanimous that owner Josh Harris would prefer not to fire the coach in the middle of the season, so I think Dan Quinn should be safe until the end of the season unless it looks like the team will let him go (which it hasn’t). For all his other faults, Quinn has traditionally been good at keeping the locker room together and keeping the players motivated, so I don’t think they’re likely to leave him. At the same time, I think the team not only needs to win the division, but also win a playoff game to keep Quinn until next year. So I think the most likely outcome is that Quinn is fired at the end of the season.
3 – Should Washington sign Jayden Daniels to a contract extension this offseason? are they
Yes and yes. While Jayden has made some high-profile situational awareness gaffes in recent games, he’s the biggest reason Commanders are in those games to begin with. He has adapted to a new (very different) offense very well and is playing from the pocket and even protecting himself better with his options. He shows the passing ability you want from a QB and is a fantastic scrambler to boot. My only concern with Jayden is whether or not he will stay healthy. However, he missed very few games in college and almost all of his missed games in the NFL (both last year and this year) were due to his left elbow. I’m hoping he just had a little complicated problem with his left elbow that will eventually get fixed. From what I understand, the ligaments in his left elbow may not have healed from last year, which is a low possibility, but a real risk whenever someone dislocates their elbow. This can be repaired by replacing damaged or torn ligaments with cadaver ligaments, which I expect Jayden to get after the season.
4 – What is the biggest fight in the Commanders’ favor and the biggest fight against their favor?
In terms of favorable matchups, WR Antonio Williams won his matchups against CB Cooper DeJean in week 1, so I expect that matchup to be exploited again. The Commanders also did a good job in week 1 of limiting the Eagles run game outside of Jalen Hurts scrambles and I expect them to do so again. The Daronte Jones/Brian Flores scheme is particularly good at stopping the run.
The biggest matchup against the Commanders is probably the Eagles DL against the Commanders run game. The Commanders were unable to move the ball effectively on the ground outside of Jayden Daniels’ scrambles. I think the issue is partially run blocking, partially abandoning the run in playcalling, and partially too little capital invested in the RB room.
5 – Who won this game and why? With the Commanders currently listed as 5.5-point home favorites, what’s your prediction for the score?
Maybe 23-17 in favor of the Commanders. In Week 1 when these teams played, the Eagles offense relied heavily on Jalen Hurts’ scrambles to move the ball in critical situations. Tanner McKee doesn’t seem to have the same scrambling ability. The Commanders also bring a lot of inside pressure into that matchup with Nick Allegretti playing Center. With Lucas Patrick out now, the pass protection should improve.