Fantasy football is all about the box score: Yards and TDs equal fantasy points, and fantasy points win your league.
But not all 5-100-1s are built the same. That’s why we use advanced analytics and film to identify talented players on the verge of delivering numbers.
Each week, I’ll bring my 22 years of experience analyzing college and NFL film to highlight when the box score doesn’t match reality, showing some players who performed better or worse than their stats.
Deshaun Watson, QB, Cleveland Browns
Deshaun Watson
CLEQB25in
Watson’s seven starts in 2024 rank as the worst QB play I’ve seen from a starting NFL QB. He has limited mobility and has thrown only a few accurate passes in his 216 attempts. His 11.39 fantasy points per game ranks 31st.
A torn Achilles put Watson on the bench for the rest of 2024 and all of 2025.
Now Watson is back in the starting role, and production has jumped. He is averaging 18.33 fantasy points per game and sits at QB14 for the season.
But I want to review his film from last week to see if Watson is playing better than he was in 2024. Or better yet: Could Watson be playing as well as he did early in his career?
In 2024, Watson often goes down when faced with any pressure. That hasn’t been a problem so far this season.
Watson gets pressure on this play, but he drops his eyes while avoiding it. His improved mobility has been a huge asset, especially for fantasy.
Watson avoids pressure but doesn’t see an open WR, so he scrambles 12 yards. He is averaging 35 yards per game through week three, the highest average since his 2017 rookie season.
That same mobility helped score this TD. Watson again keeps his eyes downfield when pressured and navigates the pocket well.
He drives the football while throwing off-platform to a wide-open Harold Fannin Jr.
That kind of play rarely happened in 2024, when Watson usually only took one sack or threw an ill-advised pass.
Much of the Browns’ passing game revolves around quick timing passes, allowing Watson to determine his reads pre-snap and make easy throws.
Watson referred to the “palms” defense pre-snap and knew Fannin was open facing only one LB covering the middle of the field. That creates an easy completion.
This type of timing pass benefited Fannin multiple times last week, leading to 9 targets in the game. He caught seven of those for 51 yards and 2 TDs.
Watson has caught some deep passes to Denzel Boston this year, but most of the offense seems to be built on short, easy throws to neglect the pass rush.
One drawback is Watson’s poor throwing angles and the error still pops up too often.
This play shows Watson’s bad attitude. He just misses the easy timing route on a screen to KC Concepcion.
Watson still often throws the ball too high in his throwing motion, an issue that plagued him until I scouted him in college.
This is a consistent problem in 2024. It’s less frequent this season but still happens a few times per game.
Which causes easy completion to sail to the intended target.
Not a Fantasy Starter…Yet
Watson has definitely improved from his poor 2024. But, I’m not ready to crown him a fantasy starter just yet.
His mobility combined with better vision habits make Watson a streaming option against tough pass defenses. But I also fear that Watson’s bad habits like his high release point could lead to some rough games moving forward.
This may not be a happy conclusion. But Watson is better than he was in 2024 and still hasn’t returned to the potential fantasy superstar from earlier in his career. That certainly helped bolster the pass catchers for the Browns.
Fannin was ranked TE3 in PPR leagues last week thanks to Watson’s performance. Rookie WR Denzel Boston ranks as WR20 in PPR points per game while Concepcion is on the verge of a fantasy breakout.
Travis Etienne, RB, New Orleans Saints
Travis Etienne
NORB131in
Etienne signed a four-year, $47 million deal to join the Saints this offseason. Unfortunately, the big contract didn’t translate into a lot of fantasy scoring.
He followed up an RB16 Week 1 with two straight RB38 PPRs. And his opener was boosted by 7 catches on a high-volume New Orleans passing day. Now, he will miss time with a hamstring injury.
But Etienne’s film shows the same effective player in 2025. He just needs touches once he returns.
Mistakes in blocking assignments by the Saints O-line (and possibly Tyler Shough in identifying blitzes) hampered Etienne.
He makes the right move, cutting back to the right side for an off-tackle hole. But, the O-line makes two critical mistakes that cause Etienne to be stuffed.
LT and LG are double teaming a DT while S Jeremy Chinn closes the open hole. At the same time, DT Tonka Hemingway drops the block from the middle to close from the other side. That ends up as a minimal 2-yard gain.
Etienne still has the explosiveness and athleticism to make big plays when the line blocks well.
Etienne explodes into open holes on this play with great movement to get to the outside, running past defenders.
This is a great example of Etienne showing the physical tools to break up big plays and effectively execute runs.
Etienne also sports a lot of receiving skills.
He was the checkdown option for Shough, who looked that way after seeing the blitz. Etienne catches the ball and then dodges contact on the sideline to add a few yards inside.
Etienne looks like a high-end RB with his speed, burst, and receiving ability. He looks like a low buy, especially while he’s injured and can’t help the team that drafted him.
See if you can trade a bench player for a RB who has the potential to make a difference late in the season.
Carnell Tate, WR, Tennessee Titans
Carnell Tate
TENWR35in
The Titans offense has been a mess so far. Their 37 points were third fewest in the league. Cam Ward struggled to throw the ball effectively, limiting the fourth overall pick’s production.
But, Tate’s early film shows a ton of promise as a future No. 1 WR, especially if the O-line and QB play improve.
Tate’s sharp route running set up this 20-yard completion. He runs the curl route with minimal wasted motion, not allowing CB Colton Hood to shift his momentum and break up the pass. Tate also picked up a few extra yards after the last.
His route running, hands, and after-catch toughness work in concert here.
Unfortunately, bad passes from Ward limited Tate’s fantasy output.
Tate gets separated on this slant and has the potential to run after the catch if the pass is in front of him. Instead, Ward dropped the ball and Tate had to make a diving catch.
That led to just one 6-yard completion on what could have been a longer play.
Bad passes also lead to incompletions.
Tate is running a streak with inside leverage at CB. He takes a step past the defender and opens up for a potential TD if the pass is catchable. Instead, Ward overthrew Tate a few yards.
Perhaps more time and chemistry will allow Ward to figure out exactly where to put the ball. Or he just isn’t good enough to hit that kind of deep pass consistently.
Either way, it’s disappointing for Tate’s immediate fantasy value. The 0-3 Titans may be bad enough to take another shot at a top QB if Ward continues to play poorly, so there may be hope for better QB play soon.
Trading a late 2027 1st for Tate in a dynasty league could pay off in the future, although you’ll have to suffer a bit with the Titans’ bad offense.