To begin my scouting of the Detroit Lions’ next opponent, I want to watch their most recent game played. For the Carolina Panthers, that meant checking in on their 21-18 loss to the Cleveland Browns in Week 3.
I took notes during the game, and here are my five biggest takeaways on what this could mean for the Lions vs. Panthers, along with some data to support those observations.
The Panthers defense can get to the passer… but they need to be aggressive
Against the Browns, the Panthers posted a 38.5% pressure rate, but that fell sharply when rushing the four. Here are their pressure rates in Week 3 with and without the blitz:
- Blitzing: 55.6% pressure rate (fourth highest), 2.76 seconds to pressure (29th)
- No blitz: 33.3% pressure rate (10th), 2.93 seconds to pressure (22nd)
When the Panthers aren’t sending extra blitzers, they generate their pressure with the speed of their edge rushers. Princely Umanmielen is second on the team in pressures, trailing only Jaelen Phillips, and his speed and bend were on display against Cleveland. But the Lions faced a pair of speed rushers last week against the Jets and held up very well.
That said, they do have some interior players with some pass rushing skills, including Derrick Brown (7.0 sacks last year). That may be the greater threat against Detroit’s young interior.
Bryce Young’s arm talent is a problem
Man, Bryce Young is fun to watch when you’re only looking at arm talent. He can make any throw. And while the deep shots get most of the national attention, I’m impressed with the throws he can make on the perimeter in tight windows. Just look at his passing chart against the Browns and how he used every inch of the boundaries:
It takes a ton of arm talent to drive that ball all the way to the rim, and he’s not afraid to do it.
He’s also not afraid to blow it deep. He currently holds the longest pursuit air yards per pass attempt in the league (10.2) and leads the league in passes of 20+ air yards (17). Accuracy is a bit up and down, but there’s more good than bad out there.
And while we’re on the subject of Young, his mobility is clearly something defenses need to be aware of. He can extend plays with his legs and his pocket presence is clearly improving. However, interestingly, he is less inclined to run and scramble. Against the Browns, he passed up several opportunities for easy yards to try for the big play. For the season, he attempted just three rushes for 16 yards and one touchdown.
The Panthers’ typical run game struggled, but came to life late
For the season, the Panthers run game has been relatively ineffective. They are 21st in DVOA, 23rd in EPA, and 23rd in success rate.
However, they have the ability to wear down teams as the game progresses. Against the Browns, Carolina had just 22 yards on 11 carries through three quarters. But in the final quarter, they ran the ball down Cleveland’s throat, rushing for 76 yards on just 12 carries (6.3 YPC).
With a pair of bruising backs in Chuba Hubbard (6-foot-1, 210) and AJ Dillon (6-foot, 247), they can tire you out—but they don’t explode. The Panthers’ longest run of the season was 24 yards by… Kenny Pickett. The running back had no run for 16 yards.
Detroit may need to fend off all four losses
Panthers head coach Dave Canales is not afraid to be aggressive on fourth down. Twice in the first half against the Browns, Carolina opted to do it near midfield. Here are two instances:
- 8:38 left in the second quarter: 0-0 tie, fourth-and-3 from the Browns’ 43-yard line
- 3:40 left in the second quarter: 3-0 Browns, fourth-and-1 from the Panthers’ 40-yard line
The Panthers failed on both attempts, and it immediately led to two scoring drives by the Browns and a 10-0 deficit. If Detroit can hold its own on fourth down (the Lions are currently going zero on three fourth down attempts), it could be a game-changer.
For the year, the Panthers are just 1-of-6 on fourth down. Last year, they attempted the second-most fourth downs in the NFL (40), converting on 27 of them (67.5% conversion rate, fourth best).
The Panthers run defense may be better than advertised
If you look at the season-long stats for Carolina’s run defense, they look like gods. They allowed an NFL-high 5.7 yards per carry, 193.3 rushing yards per game, and they ranked 23rd in run defense DVOA.
However, I think there are three things going on: Data is being swayed by a terrible Week 1 performance against the Bears, they’re being disproportionately hurt by mobile quarterbacks, and they’ve also made some obvious progress.
Against Chicago, the Panthers allowed 291 rushing yards and 7.5 yards per carry. It was a truly formidable performance, led by D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai, who combined for 224 yards and four touchdowns on 28 carries (8.0 YPC). The following week wasn’t great, but it was a marked improvement: allowing Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson to combine for 123 yards on 27 carries (4.6 YPC). Against the Browns, the Panthers allowed 132 rushing yards on 4.4 yards per carry—but Quinshon Judkins managed just 70 yards on 18 carries (3.9 YPC).
In total, of the 580 rushing yards allowed by the Panthers, 146 (over 25%) came from the quarterbacks. That won’t be an issue this week.
Especially, when it came down to needing their defense to stop the run, they did. The Browns had a chance to tie the game with a single first down. Despite facing second-and-2, the Panthers rattled off three straight stops to give the offense another shot. That’s reflected in their overall run success rate allowed (35.6%), which is actually ninth best in the NFL
Today, the Browns’ rushing attack (31st in DVOA) is worse than the Bears (ninth) and Falcons (sixth), and the Lions have one of the best in the NFL (second). But I still think the early numbers are skewing a run defense that can hang.