Dodgers vs. Brewers
The NLCS is probably what it should be, right? The two teams with the best records on the Senior Circuit will face off in a rematch of last year’s NLCS to see which will go to the World Series. The Dodgers and the Brewers are the only two teams in the NL with 100+ wins, as Milwaukee has a three-game edge for No. 1 seed, so the Brewers have home-field advantage in this series. They did the same last season, and lost five games. We’ll start with Tarik Skubal vs. Jacob Misiorowski and if that’s not a pitching matchup worthy of Game 1 of a League Championship Series, I don’t know what is.
Dodgers vs. Brewers (-113, 6) Prediction
8 pm ET (FOX/FS1)
Dodgers-Brewers Series Preview
Will this line stay where it is? I think that’s a really fair question to ask here given how rare it is to see Skubal as an underdog. Skubal hasn’t been an underdog since March 27, 2025 when his Tigers squared off against now-teammate Blake Snell and the Dodgers. He was the underdog several times in 2024, but not really the underdog here in 2026.
If the favorite flips, Misiorowski is an underdog twice this season, winning a game on May 8 against the Yankees with Max Fried on the other side and losing on April 7 to the Red Sox and Garrett Crochet. Honestly, I’m a little surprised that Miz and the Brewers are favored. Obviously I’m very impressed with the NL Cy Young Award winner, but pitching efficiency is a question for him in the postseason environment when he’s (theoretically) only facing good offenses.
Miz needed 88 pitches to record 12 outs in his Game 1 start against the Padres. His team did win 3-2, and both runs were charged to him, but San Diego had 30 foul balls in 64 strikeouts. Misiorowski still struck out six and walked just one, but left five innings to complete the bullpen. They produced three walks and five hits allowed, but did not give up a run.
Miz faced the Dodgers just once and did so on the road back on August 15 and allowed one run on five hits in six innings with six strikeouts and one walk. As we know, though, the Dodgers can lock up whenever they want and they seem to be pretty much locked in when October rolls around. Nobody throws as hard as Miz, but for the sake of argument, we’ll call 98+ mph premier speed. The Dodgers are fifth in BA at .230, sixth in SLG at .356, and eighth in wOBA at .298. The Padres are seventh in wOBA, eighth in SLG, and fourth in BA and they worked Misiorowski hard last time.
You know who else throws hard? Tarik Skubal. Skubal’s first postseason start with the Dodgers was about what you’d expect. Six innings of control with a solo homer and just one other hit allowed with seven strikeouts against two walks. He averaged 98.1 mph on the fastball, up 1.3 mph from the regular season and kept the velocity up through six innings. He generated 13 Whiffs, eight of them in his transformation.
Assuming Skubal’s velo uptick holds, the Brewers are 14th in BA at .211, 23rd in SLG at .276, and 17th in wOBA at .272 against 98+ mph pitches. The Brewers are 13th in wOBA against LHP for the season, ninth in the second half, and 14th in the final month of the season. Skubal is clearly not your run-of-the-mill southpaw. Misiorowski is one of the best righties on the planet. So, I don’t know how important looking at the splits here is how much better than average these two guys are.
Ultimately, I’m on the Dodgers here. The lineup has more potential power in a game where runs are likely to be at a premium. Furthermore, Skubal is more likely to go deeper into the ballgame, while the Brewers will likely need to deploy some of their middle-relief arms as Miz’s pitch count increases. The one weakness for the Brewers, at least as far as I’m concerned, is in the middle of their bullpen.
Pick: Dodgers -107