With the Kansas City Chiefs enjoying an early bye in Week 5, it’s a good time to look at trends from the first half of the season. As one of the league’s three remaining undefeated teams, it’s no surprise that many metrics favor Kansas City’s performance through the first four weeks.
Let’s take a look at some interesting news from the NFL’s Next Gen Stats on the Chiefs’ strong start — and what areas of concern remain.
The biggest factor in Kansas City’s early success has been a real commitment to the run game that head coach Andy Reid has few expectations for. Right now, Kansas City ranks second in expected points added (EPA) per run play at 0.14. The only team ahead is the Buffalo Bills, who benefit metrically from quarterback Josh Allen’s ability to make plays with his legs. Buffalo running back James Cook also narrowly edged Walker (15 to 14) in rushing attempts of ten or more yards.
Walker leads all running backs with 10.9 cumulative expected points added. His 537 total yards easily leads the league. In fact, his four-game total would likely fall just short of second in the league — even though most teams have a five-game sample. Bijan Robinson of the Atlanta Falcons passed for Walker by 43 yards and is likely to pass him even with a below-average performance. Cook can push Walker into third place among the NFL’s rushing leaders with 117 yards on the ground when the Bills face the Los Angeles Rams on Monday night.
By many metrics, quarterback Patrick Mahomes is having his best season since winning his second MVP award in 2022. His EPA per dropback currently sits at 0.17, up from 0.11 each of the past two seasons. There hasn’t been a noticeable increase in front of the league attempting his deep ball (not surprising given the ongoing questions at offensive tackle. Mahomes’ 7.1 air yards per attempt is up from the 2023 and 2024 seasons, but it’s a slight drop from his 7.9-yard mark in his truncated 2025 campaign.
The Chiefs currently run about 40% of their offensive plays from under center (up from about 18% in 2025). The addition of Walker also allowed Mahomes to reach a career-high 33% play-action percentage on passing plays. The only other time Mahomes exceeded 30% as a starter was in 2018, when he played most of the season with second-year running back Kareem Hunt.
One curiosity early on was the use of rookie running back Emmett Johnson. With just five receptions (on five targets), Johnson already has a cumulative 5.8 EPA receptions. With a -3.6-yard average depth of target, Johnson was credited with 92 yards after the catch while officially having 74 receiving yards for the year. Reid and his staff should prioritize unlocking Johnson’s screen game potential in the coming weeks.
In recent weeks, the Chiefs defense has reminded many fans of the importance of taking prescription blood pressure medication. However, most of the advanced stats revolve around what the unit does in a favorable light.
Kansas City’s -.010 EPA per defensive play ranks eighth in the league through the first month of the season. When separated by run and pass plays, the Chiefs remain in the top ten in both.
Run defense has been particularly effective when using light boxes. The Chiefs rank second with a -0.27 EPA when there are fewer than seven players near the line. Surprisingly, Kansas City’s stuff rate (with plays stopped behind the line of scrimmage or for no gain) is around 21% in any box formation. Overall, the 21.2% stuff rate ranks third in the league.
However, the Chiefs have been more prone to third down games. In the primary scenario, Kansas City’s EPA dropped to 0.28, good for 21st overall. Passing stats on third down trend more toward the league average.
Veteran cornerback L’Jarius Sneed is widely seen as a liability on defense, and most advanced metrics agree. Sneed allowed 278 receiving yards in coverage, fourth most in the league. He was also targeted on 30% of the coverage snaps he took.
With a -6.2 pass coverage EPA, linebacker Drue Tranquill barely makes the NFL top ten.
We’ll be back with another look at how advanced metrics are looking at the Chiefs as they enter their ‘mini bye’ after their Thanksgiving night game against the Bills.