The Detroit Lions have started at least 4-1 in each of the past three seasons. Leading the NFC North pack from the jump started to become the norm. Not only did they suffer their earliest second loss since 2022, but both losses came in highly demoralizing and shocking primetime fashion. Now they appear to be a team that has lost respect across the country and around the league, a month into the season without playing anything close to a complete game.
It’s been one of the most unenthusiastic weeks to be a Lions fan in years following the Bryce Young buzzsaw they ran into in Charlotte. Now they head to the desert to face LaFleur’s younger brother, Mike, who needs the right win and a complete four-quarter performance to inspire the season heading into a much-needed early Week 6 bye. They will do so with a 5-1 record against the Cardinals since 2017, after the Ford family franchise went 0-7 in seven matchups in Arizona between 2006 and 2015.
The Cardinals have invested heavily in their skill players, including Trey McBride, Michael Wilson, Jeremiah Love, and Marvin Harrison Jr., and all eyes will be on the Lions defense fighting back and overcoming the narrative that they are the worst defense in all of football. Every football team has warts right now, so let’s take a look at my three key stats and matchups for Sunday afternoon’s West Coast business trip and how the Lions can rid themselves of those warts.
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from NFL Pro, FTN Fantasy, Pro Football Reference, SumerSports, or Pro Football Focus.
While the Detroit Lions’ defense has been inexplicably dysfunctional this season, one thing they haven’t taken the bus straight to Rock Bottom on is defending against the 13-man. Despite struggling overall in run defense against the Bills and Panthers, they found some success against three tight end sets, allowing just 3.31 yards per rush on 16 attempts, with just one sack allowed.
Even against a 13-personnel pass defense, where the Lions usually match their base defense, they were effective, allowing 10-of-17 passing (58.8% completion percentage) for 102 yards (6.0 yards per attempt, 12th), a 41.2% success rate (14th), and 4.9% success rate (14th), and 4.9% catches. pass rate (14th). All respectable numbers. If they can just be middle of the pack in most pass-defense metrics, the outlook for their season will be more optimistic than it felt after the last two grueling losses. Most promisingly, the Lions’ pass rush against 13-personnel generated a 66.7% pressure rate (3rd) and a 9.5% sack rate (8th).
Their 13-personnel defensive prowess will be crucial when facing the Cardinals in a post-Drew Petzing world. While Arizona’s 12-personnel usage fell sharply from 36.2% (3rd) last season to 14.8% under LaFleur, its 13-personnel usage remained a priority, jumping from 11.0% in 2025 (3rd) to 20.1% (3rd) when deploying Hunter Trey Higgins, and Hunter Trey Higgins (3rd) injured). [Note: Long was placed on IR this week, with veteran Teagan Quitoriano expected to take his place.]
The Cardinals’ rushing attack from three-tight-end sets has maintained success, averaging 4.14 yards per rush (t-6th), a 47.2% success rate (14th), and +0.02 EPA/rush (10th). They are also top 10 in both pre- and post-contact yards per carry, with both Jeremiyah Love (47.6% success rate) and Tyler Allgeier (+0.04 EPA/rush) averaging over 4 yards per carry from 13-personnel.
Some of Jacoby Brissett’s best analytical metrics come from his 16 dropbacks (fourth most) when passing in 13-personnel. He was 11-for-16 for 90 passing yards (5.6 yards per attempt), two touchdowns, +0.367 EPA/pass (11th), and 62.5% passing success rate (11th).
While this is a small sample size, the Lions defense needs to break loose and find ways in which it can succeed. Being able to defend well on nearly every fifth play when the Cardinals go 13-personnel would be a step in the right direction toward getting off the field and holding Arizona to field goals instead of touchdowns in the red zone.
Death by a Thousand Checkdowns
While it’s beneficial for the Lions that the Cardinals don’t face Paris Johnson Jr. will miss the game due to injury, leaving either seventh-round rookie Jayden Williams or recently signed Jedrick Wills to man Jacoby Brissett’s blind side, with possible backup Jon Gaines II filling in for injury-battling right guard Isaiah Adams, Sunday night’s defensive matchup proved. is not always enough.
While Detroit’s defensive front was able to generate pressure and take advantage of porous offensive lines, the back end didn’t allow it to take full advantage. Receivers are wide open for easy throws from Bryce Young, who also stands strong in the pocket to deliver backbreaking completions before the rush gets there. The Cardinals’ passing game could further dilute the effectiveness of the Lions’ defensive front against Arizona’s below-average offensive line.
It’s not a dynamic passing attack, instead operating largely on dinking and dunking, which could provide a foundation for the Lions to keep everyone in front of them, clean up their short-pass coverage, and maybe even force a rushing mistake.
Among 29 qualified quarterbacks, Jacoby Brissett ranks last in yards per pass attempt (5.4), 27th in average target depth (6.10 yards) and average time to throw (2.6 seconds), and 26th in deep-ball rate (5.9% on throws of 20-plus air yards). He is also tied with Joe Burrow for the second most throws under 2.5 seconds (94).
All pedestrian and manageable numbers. The Cardinals’ passing offense is the least explosive in the league, averaging an explosive pass rate of just 2.6%. The next closest is the Giants at 6.2% (31st), while Arizona’s rushing offense isn’t much better, ranking last with a 5.6% explosive run rate.
The Lions’ defense ranks in the bottom five in both explosive pass and run rate allowed, but perhaps this Cardinals offensive group is one against which they can look like a decently coached and executed defense, with all 11 players on the same page and where they’re needed. Dan Campbell spoke of the need for his defensive players to be more disciplined this week and also said, “I want our guys to be where they need to be when they need to be there.”
Perhaps this Cardinals offense is the starter kit Detroit needs to get back to being bend-but-don’t-break versus simply being broken.
Drew Petzing should be all too familiar with his former co-worker, Cardinals fourth-year defensive coordinator Nick Rallis, a guy who makes chicken salad out of chicken shit with disguised blitzes and simulated pressures. Petzing’s offensive unit was able to put up points in every game, but it wasn’t as consistent or had a cohesive approach throughout a game as one would like its talent to be.
Dan Campbell challenged the offense in a lot of available media this week.
“We’re not going to be ordinary. We’re going to raise the floor on these guys. Man, we’re going to push them,” Campbell said on local radio. “We’re very good offensively right now. Our quarterback is very good. Our playmakers are very good. And we have a young, hungry offensive line that has a ton of room to grow.”
Petzing, in what some might call a revenge game against a Cardinals defense lacking in talent, will look to put together his most complete game plan of the season.
The Cardinals’ defensive front has some solid players in Josh Sweat, Darius Robinson, edge-setter Zaven Collins, promising young defensive tackle Walter Nolen Jr., and imposing old friend Roy Lopez. Much like the Lions’ defense last week, the backbone of the Cardinals’ defense, led by 10-year veteran Budda Baker, fellow safety Andrew Wingard (waived this week), and linebackers Mack Wilson Sr. and Jack Gibbens, who the Lions offense could take advantage of.
While the Lions’ third-down offense is in the middle of the pack in most metrics, one of the Cardinals’ two glaring defensive weaknesses is going down the field on third down, where they allow a 47.7% conversion rate (26th) and +0.698 EPA/game (32nd). The Cardinals are also bombed allowing a league-worst 12.7% explosive pass rate.
The Lions need to continue to strive for better results on early downs, but against the Cardinals, they can dominate possession of the football and keep their defense off the field by finding more success moving the chains on third down and generating chunk plays through Jared Goff’s group of weapons in the passing game.