The regular season continues to progress in the NFL, and Week 5 promises to continue an entertaining opening month. This week, five divisional matchups top the crop of games to sink our teeth into. That includes the San Francisco 49ers heading to Seattle to face the Seahawks in a pivotal NFC West showdown, along with an NFC North bout between the Bears and Packers, with Chicago a road favorite marching into Lambeau Field.
Of course, as has been the case for most of the season, injuries are set to play a big part in this slate, especially in Baltimore, where Lamar Jackson has been ruled out for the Ravens matchup against the Atlanta Falcons.
To help you sort through all the latest developments around the league, we’ve made our last-minute picks for every game on the docket for Week 5 and launched the five best bets you can lean on as you sit back, relax, and enjoy another NFL week.
Remember: Kansas City and Carolina have a bye in Week 5.
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers
Someone on the Colts must have pissed off the schedule makers or something, because they’re getting a raw deal in Week 5 against Pittsburgh. Last week, Indianapolis played in London and now has to go on the road next week for an international game, facing a Steelers team on extended rest after playing Thursday night. That’s as much of a rest advantage as you can find outside of bye weeks, and I think Pittsburgh is taking advantage of it.
Don’t be fooled by the 30-13 win in London last week; the Colts — outside of Jonathan Taylor — look awful. Daniel Jones has yet to find the spark he had in the first half of last season before tearing his Achilles. So far this season, Jones is averaging just 5.7 yards per attempt, with four total touchdowns and seven total turnovers. He also completed just one pass (in nine attempts) of 20-plus air yards.
The Steelers, meanwhile, have been better at home this season than on the road, owning a 2-0 record and averaging 25 points per game. Aaron Rodgers and Pittsburgh’s offense have shown sparks in the first month, and I expect to see more of that Sunday against an Indy defense that is allowing the second-most yards per game in the NFL this season. The Steelers are also 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.
Expected score: Steelers 27, Colts 20
The choose: Steelers -3
Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots
Sure, they weren’t able to knock off the Chiefs last week and stay undefeated, but I think the Raiders still proved their strong start to the year in that game. They are still a developing team, but they join Kansas City, which looks to be one of the elite teams in the conference. The offense has played very well and is averaging 28.8 points per game, while Kirk Cousins – who is 7-1 SU and ATS in his last eight starts — is tied for the league lead in passing touchdowns (11).
I think they have enough firepower to hang with New England on the road to stay within the count, especially with the spread sitting on a field goal and a hook. That said, I think the Patriots carry the momentum of a huge win in Buffalo last Sunday into Week 5.
Drake Maye looked more confident in the pocket last week, particularly when it came to dealing with pressure. Against the blitz, Maye was 9-of-14 for 118 passing yards and three touchdowns, good for a 130.4 passer rating. That’s close to the MVP runner-up we saw last year. He also used his legs more effectively. Maye could pop again against a Las Vegas defense that has allowed more points, yards and rushing yards per game this season.
Expected score: Patriots 24, Raiders 21
The choose: Raiders +3.5
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (in London)
- Sunday, 9:30 am (Fox, Stream: Fubotry for free)
The vibes around the Eagles are either at or near an all-time low. They had just blown a double-digit fourth-quarter lead to the Rams in Week 4, were dramatically blown out, and Lane Johnson just got to announce his retirement. They are also without Saquon Barkley (hamstring) or DeVonta Smith (hamstring) this week as Philly heads to London to face Jacksonville this weekend. That only adds depth to an offense that failed to convert one of its 12 third-down opportunities last week. Back in Week 3, Philly enters this game on an 0-17 third down streak.
Meanwhile, they’re going up against a Jaguars team that I think is the best in the AFC right now. They are 3-1 and have an offense that is essentially the opposite of Philly’s. The Jags have the third-best third-down conversion rate (51.1 %) in the NFL entering Week 5, the second-best red zone touchdown rate (81.8%), and Trevor Lawrence is sneakily playing like an MVP candidate. Of the 24 quarterbacks who have completed at least 100 passes this season, Lawrence is second in passer rating at 111.2.
The Jags are too hot to fade right now, and they’ll face an Eagles team that looks like they’re on a roll.
Expected score: Jaguars 30, Eagles 17
The choose: Jaguars -7.5
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
I told you this after Week 3, and it became more true as the season went on — the Chargers are a dumpster fire. They are 0-4 on the season and have almost no life in the process. And don’t let the 30-23 final score against the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks fool you; Los Angeles piled up most of those points when the game was out of reach (out 27-6). Justin Herbert has thrown more interceptions (6) than touchdowns (4) this season and is currently last in the NFL with a 70.6 passer rating (min. 100 pass attempts).
The Broncos haven’t been much better than the Chargers, if we’re being honest, because their 2-2 start to the season is disappointing when you look under the hood. In particular, they start games extremely flat on offense, totaling just 13 points in the first half, which is last in the NFL. They rebounded with fury in the second half, scoring the fifth-most second-half points in the league (61). Which somehow shows a spark that can be tapped when backed into a corner.
However, this game will be won in the trenches. In particular, the Broncos should take advantage of a bang-up Chargers offensive line. Even when they get healthy, LA gives up the second-highest pressure rate per dropback in the NFL (46.9%). They will now have to try to improve on that figure without left tackle Rashawn Slater, who is out with a high ankle sprain. Meanwhile, right tackle Joe Alt will also be sidelined with a neck injury. While they aren’t as numerous as last season, Denver’s pass rush ranks 11th in the NFL in pressure rate (39.7%), so it could be a long day at the office for Herbert.
Expected score: Broncos 26, Chargers 20
The choose: Broncos -3.5
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
- Sunday, 1 pm (Fox, Stream: Fubotry for free)
As I mentioned last week in my Cover 32 columnsthe Packers just don’t have it, and I don’t see them as a real playoff threat in the NFC, let alone a division winner. They are 28th in the NFL in points per game (18.8) and last in the NFL in rushing yards per game (58.0) as well as on third down (26%). Green Bay is also the second most penalized team in the league through the first month, so they can’t get out of their own way.
Meanwhile, Chicago persevered through Caleb Williams’ injury, and both Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent (who will start Sunday) performed at a high level in his place. The Bears lean on their running game with D’Andre Swift and Kyle Mongai, and the team leads the NFL with 196.3 rushing yards per game. That strength could once again be an X-factor as Green Bay is tied for the second-most rushing touchdowns (7) allowed this season. However, they will need to continue that hot streak on the ground without Monangai, who is out with toe and thumb injuries.
Chicago hasn’t had the best record when it comes to playing division rivals under Ben Johnson (2-5 SU and ATS), but I think they improve on that mark here as they step into Lambeau Field as road favorites and pull out the victory.
Expected score: Bears 28, Packers 20
The choose: Bears -1.5
The rest of the group
Bengals and Dolphins
Expected score: Bengals 27, Dolphins 16
The choose: Bengals -7
Browns and Jets
Expected score: Jets 24, Browns 20
The choose: Jets -2.5
Texans and Titans
Expected score: Texans 27, Titans 17
The choose: Texan -7
Vikings to Saints
Expected score: Vikings 23, Saints 20
The choose: Vikings -2.5
Giants in Commanders
Expected score: Commander 26, Giant 23
The choose: Giants +3.5
Lions at Cardinals
Expected score: Lions 33, Cardinals 30
The choose: Cardinals +5.5
49ers at Seahawks
Expected score: Seahawks 27, 49ers 23
The choose: Seahawks -3
Ravens and Falcons
Expected score: Falcons 24, Ravens 20
The choose: Falcons -3
Bills at Rams (Monday)
Expected score: Rams 28, Bills 24
The choose: Rams -3