Here are my Week 9 best college football bets:
Mike Locksley had the unfortunate distinction of being the first FBS coach fired ten days ago at Maryland after a 2-5 start. This week, the Terrapins don’t have a bye and will face an Illinois team that pulled off an upset as 10-point home underdogs against Oregon last week.
Illini backup freshman QB Michael Clayton II threw for just 84 yards (11-for-18) but had 2 TD passes. Illinois gave up 426 yards to a struggling Oregon offense in its 21-10 victory. In fact, the Illini defense ranks just 131 out of 138 teams in Adjusted EPA/Play and 132nd in Defensive Success Rate.
Maryland’s offense ranks just 128th in Offensive Success Rate, but interim defensive backs coach and co-defensive coordinator Aazaar Abdul-Rahim likely won’t disrupt the offense too much and will let offensive coordinator Clint Trickett open it up a bit.
Illinois came off an emotional win on Saturday and then announced that Bret Bielema’s father, Arnie, died at the age of 88 on Sunday morning. The Illini carried that feeling into last weekend’s victory, but it will be difficult to duplicate next weekend now in a different role as a road favorite.
After a 2-0 start, Colorado has lost five straight games, including a 57-24 loss at Oklahoma State last week, in which they actually led at halftime but were outscored 34-0 in the second half. It’s been a miserable season in Boulder because the bloom is off the rose for “Coach Prime”. However, the Buffs have been more competitive in their losses at home. Although they lost 29-7 to Texas Tech, they beat No. 12 Red Raiders 375-314 but they finished with four turnovers. Two weeks ago, Colorado had No. 13 and Utah still went unbeaten on the ropes in the second half before falling 27-24.
Meanwhile, Kansas State lost 28-17 on the road last week to a struggling Arizona State team. Starting QB Avery Johnson missed last week’s game and has been ruled out for this one as well. Backup Jacob Knuth, who started last week, is also out for this one. So now K-State is down to either RS sophomore and Colorado native Blake Barnett, who threw just five passes this season against FCS Nicholls State, or sophomore Dillon Duff, who has yet to see action.
Kansas State’s offense uses the QB to run a good deal, but if there’s one thing Colorado is good at, it’s stopping the run. The Buffs are 9th nationally in EPA/Rush.
Colorado played a tougher schedule and was a little more battle-tested. The program is a mess, but the effort seems to be there. It’s hard to expect Kansas State to do much on offense here.
The No. 4 Indiana Hoosiers bounced back from a loss at Ohio State and ended its 22-game winning streak. But it wasn’t easy for the defending National Champions, as they had to go into OT to win a low-scoring game 13-6 at Michigan. Indiana managed just 212 yards of offense, and QB Josh Hoover, battling a right arm injury, went just 8-for-18 for 81 yards and had just a 22.6 QB Rating, but had the winning TD on the ground.
Meanwhile, Minnesota won the second trophy game of the season, defeating Iowa for the bronze pig Floyd of the Rosedale Trophy, 13-10. However, the Gophers gained just 209 yards and needed to win on a field goal at the horn despite having a +3 turnover margin. Minnesota usually “Iowa’d” Iowa out, winning by forcing turnovers and better special teams.
The Gophers come in with a banged-up offensive line with multiple starters out, and they can’t run the ball (135th in yards/rush at 3.76). Indiana’s defense is very deep along the defensive line, as they allowed just 3.47 yards/rush (No. 4 nationally). The Hoosiers will force Drake Lindsey to beat them by throwing the ball, and Indiana’s defense has 28 sacks (No. 4 nationally) in eight games.
Indiana is playing its ninth straight game before finally getting a bye next week. The Hoosiers are one of the nation’s worst teams ATS at 1-7. The Hoosiers’ offense has been sputtering as of late and needs to get its run going and Minnesota could contend with it, as the Gophers are 101st in rushing yards. This looks like a season where Indiana needs to clean up some things, especially offensively, and run an opponent as it begins a home stretch of one run toward its third straight College Football Playoff appearance.
The Ducks, one of the National Championship favorites in the preseason, fell to 4-3 and scored just 10 points at Illinois. This week it was also announced that QB Dante Moore will officially miss the rest of the season after suffering a concussion on September 26 vs. USC. That announcement came after OC Drew Mehringer was fired after the Ducks’ offense slipped toward the 100s in multiple metrics this season.
Now Oregon hosts the No. 20-ranked Northwestern team with a lot of confidence right now and some legitimate CFP aspirations. Former Oregon head coach Chip Kelly, 46-7 in his four seasons in Eugene from 2009-2012, returns to Autzen Stadium today as Northwestern’s offensive coordinator.
Despite scoring just 10 points last week at Illinois, the Ducks had 426 yards, mostly without Dante Moore, and maybe that’s a sign of progress.
Did Oregon abandon the white flag in its day? I’m not sure they have and I’m willing to buy low on unwanted favorites here.
Perhaps the theme of College Football Week 9 is “Lookahead Saturday”, and the No. 1 Miami certainly falls into that category with next week’s big game in South Bend at Notre Dame, which will likely be the Hurricanes’ first legitimate test of the season considering they’ve played a relatively soft schedule.
But first things first, because Miami has a primetime trip to Chapel Hill to face a North Carolina team that has been more competitive than most expected, considering all the bad news within the program over the summer. The Tar Heels competed at Notre Dame, beat a ranked Pittsburgh team on the road, and won at rival Duke. They were caught in a big sandwich last week after winning at Durham and then hosting Miami, as Syracuse didn’t take the lead until converting the game-winning two-point conversion to take a 31-30 lead in OT.
Miami’s offense leads the nation in scoring offense (49 ppg) and total offense (551.9 ypg) behind two legitimate Heisman candidates, QB Darian Mensah and WR Malachi Toney. However, the ‘Canes have shown some defensive weaknesses, especially against the pass. Giving up 312 through the air against Gio Lopez and Wake Forest is one thing but allowing subpar QBs like Clemson’s Tate Reynolds (295 yards), Florida State’s Ashton Daniels (298 yards), and Pitt backup Holden Geriner (268 yards) doesn’t give much confidence in putting up this number on the road.
All week, we heard “it didn’t work out for Lincoln Riley” from the same media personalities who said he would win multiple national championships after he was hired. Still, there’s some pressure for him to get this one considering the Trojans aren’t the buzz football program in Los Angeles right now, with the Bruins off to their best start in 20 years at 7-0 and in great shape to make the College Football Playoff.
In comes Ohio State off the bye with freshman Luke Fahey, a SoCal kid from Mission Viejo, making his first start at the LA Coliseum in place of the injured Julian Sayin. There could also be a package for sophomore Tavien St. Clair, considered the better passer of the two, while Fahey is considered the better athlete. Whoever is at QB will have to be good for the Buckeyes as Ohio State hasn’t been able to run the ball much this season (84th in Yards/Rush; 125th in Explosive Run Rate).
Expect USC DC Gary Patterson to follow the Indiana game plan of pressing Jeremiah Smith at the line of scrimmage and having the safety over the top to help. The Heisman favorite scored a touchdown at Indiana but had his lowest output of the season with four catches for 68 yards.
USC had its lowest output of Riley’s tenure with just 7 points at Wisconsin last week. This week, Jayden Maiava may have an easier time, as Ohio State rates just 73rd in pass rush per PFF.
It was a desperation game for both teams, but especially for the Trojans to show they can still compete with elite programs (Riley is just 5-15 against AP Top 25 USC).
BEST OF THE REST
Liberty, Liberty, Liberty has won six straight games and swept five straight. However, it’s against one of the weakest FBS schedules. The combined record of Liberty’s last six opponents is 14-33 and includes a list of FCS Gardner-Webb (2-6), Ball State (3-5), Coastal Carolina (2-5), Delaware (4-4), which fell to its 3rd and 4th-string QBs, Sam Houston State (1-7), which just fired its head coach (2.6 and Kennesaw State).
FIU, at 3-4, is another team with a losing record, but it has a defense that ranks in the Top 25 nationally in both total and scoring defense. Fourteen points is too much for an overvalued Liberty team to place here.
Nevada +23 at UCLA
Penn State -10 vs. Purdue
Fresno State +6 vs. Oregon State
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