The Minnesota Vikings are on the road this week to face the New Orleans Saints, a team I expected to win the NFC South but sputtered out of the gate at 1-3. They were defeated by the division rival Atlanta Falcons, 45-24 at home on Monday night. It was their second straight loss at the Superdome.
Can the Vikings make it three in a row? Let’s dive in.
The Vikings offense finally lived up to preseason expectations in the 4th quarter of Sunday’s win over the Miami Dolphins. Kevin O’Connell was clearly looking to maximize Kyler Murray’s comfort, resulting in the most shotgun formation of any game of his tenure as head coach. Murray responded with an incredibly effective 4th quarter, going 13 of 14 for 120 yards and a 102.4 passer rating. All eyes are on whether this will be the new norm or just an anomaly.
The schedule worked in our favor as the Vikings offense finally found a rhythm. While the Dolphins’ defense ranks near the bottom in many defensive categories, the Saints’ defense may be worse. They are dead last in points allowed per game (32.0), 30th in rush yards allowed (147.8), and 26th in both net yards per game (360.3) and yards per game (5.8). If there is one positive, they are in the middle of the pack (15th) in passing yards allowed per game (212.5).
KOC and the Saints’ defensive coordinator, Brandon Staley, know each other because they both served on Sean McVay’s staff in LA, but that works the same way. As Chargers head coach, Staley got the better of KOC in their only matchup since 2022: a 28-24 Chargers win in 2023. But the Vikings moved the ball up and down the field for 475 net yards, with Justin Jefferson catching 7 passes for 149 yards. If you recall, this was the game when the Chargers took a late lead on a Justin Herbert touchdown pass that bounced off the Vikings cornerback’s helmet. I think that’s it. It seems right.
Oh, and there’s the little detail about Odell Beckham, Jr., signing with the Vikings this week. I didn’t see it coming. I don’t expect him to affect Sunday’s game, if at all, but it will be interesting to see what it means heading into the bye. This could be an added-depth move due to Jefferson’s injury and Jauan Jennings’ failure to make an impact on offense…or…it could mean Jordan Addison is on the trade block. Ehh. Gossip and rumors are rampant on social media. I hope we find out soon.
It is approaching the middle of October. Justin Jefferson should be back and pumped to play in his hometown. You hate to say it’s now or never, but at some point this offense needs a 35-point outburst to calm nerves and offer some optimism for a tougher stretch ahead. And no, I’m not talking about the Packers fumbling and bumbling the ball away from us on short fields and gifting us with drive-saving penalties. I mean long, sustained possession with chunk plays in the passing game. I know the left side of the offensive line is down, but Ryan Van Demark and Joe Huber held their own against the Dolphins. And it won’t be like them taking on Myles Garrett, TJ Watt, Chris Jones, or… Dallas Turner! Yes, I said.
This is the most interesting matchup, as the Saints offense is dangerous. Well, their passing game, anyway. But after an uncharacteristic run-game struggle against the Dolphins, I expect Flores’ group to bounce back against the Vikings’ old nemesis, Alvin Kamara, who also appears to be banged, given early injury reports. This comes after newly signed starter Travis Etienne was placed on IR with a hamstring injury.
The cupboard isn’t bare for the Saints’ offense, though. Head coach Kellen Moore has second-year quarterback Tyler Shough playing well, and the unit is currently in the NFL’s top ten in points per game (26.3), net yards (367.0), passing yards (278.5), and first downs (24.3).
That’s fine, but with all due respect to the Lions’, Ravens’, Raiders’, and Falcons’ (especially) defenses, the Vikings are playing at heights that even NASA’s most advanced telescopes struggle to reach.
The Saints’ offense revolves around standout wide receiver Chris Olave, and containing him will be a priority. He was second in the NFL in receiving yards and receptions, surpassed 100 receiving yards in three of four games, and never had fewer than eight receptions in any contest. I watched him in Week 1 absolutely abuse the Detroit Lions secondary, catching 10 passes for 182 yards. The Saints really deserved to win that game.
The Saints’ secret weapon is their dynamic tight end duo of Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant, especially in the red zone. They have six combined receiving touchdowns in just four games. The good news is that, aside from Tucker Kraft and Jonnu Smith in Week 1, the Vikings have held opposing tight ends to just six receptions for 83 yards and no touchdowns over the next three games.
If Flores’ group can match their Week 2 and 3 performances, the Saints will struggle to reach 20 points, home or not.
For the third week in a row, the Vikings will face a desperate team looking for a momentum-shifting win. For the Saints, that means keeping up with the Atlanta Falcons and the increasingly impressive Carolina Panthers. I picked the Saints to win the NFC South in the preseason, and I truly believe they are better than their 1-3 record suggests. You are what your record says you are, but I think the Saints’ early January record will better reflect who they really are.
But I don’t believe the turnaround will start this week. They will be game, but ultimately the Vikings will prove too much on both sides of the ball. Yes, that means the offense is finally putting together the complete game fans have been waiting for. Better late than never. A late Kyler Murray touchdown pass put it out of reach.