The Seattle Seahawks are coming off an ugly home game against the Los Angeles Chargers, and leaders on the team held a team meeting earlier this week to emphasize cleaning up how they play. They will need to play cleaner this coming week as they are set to face the 4-0 San Francisco 49ers who currently have the first point differential in the NFL. Can the 3-1 Seahawks beat their division foes? What’s the score? Let’s look at the numbers and find out.
Seahawks advanced stats rankings
The Seahawks’ DVOA data per FTN ranked 6th in total DVOA, 16th in offensive DVOA, first in defensive DVOA, and 17th in special Teams DVOA.
Per EPA data, they rank second in total defensive EPA and defensive EPA per play, while they are 16th in total offensive EPA and offensive EPA per play.
The Seahawks are sixth in point differential currently with a +32 point differential over opponents. They averaged 26.3 points per game, with three games in which they scored 30+ points. They hold opponents to an average of 18.3 points, which ranks fifth in the NFL.
49ers advanced stats ranking
The 49ers ranked first in total DVOA, first in offensive DVOA, fifth in defensive DVOA, and 22nd in special teams DVOA.
For EPA, the 49ers ranked first in both total offensive EPA and offensive EPA per game, and ranked 18th in total defensive EPA and defensive EPA per game.
They lead in point differential with a +58 point differential, and are averaging 30.5 points per game and holding opponents to 16 points per game.
SEA 26.3 + Opponents in SF 16 = 42.3/2= 21.15
SF 30.5+ SEA Opponents 18.3= 48.8/2= 24.4
Score Prediction: 24-21, 49ers
Now in recent weeks I have also considered how many teams have lost to their opposition. Per Pro Football Reference the 49ers margin of victory is 14.5 points. Rounded up to 15, meaning the Seahawks would only get 9 points.
Second Score Prediction: 24-9, 49ers
This is looking to be a close game, and historically, the Seahawks and 49ers have played each other closely. I went into some analytics and had a different (more optimistic, winning) score prediction on The Hawks Eye Podcast with my weekly analytics show Eye On The Numbers. I’ll go over the key players, how they’ve played in previous games this year, how opposing defenses will defend skill players, to see how they’ll preform in this matchup.
I have the Seahawks score four touchdowns and a field goal, and the 49ers score three touchdowns and a field goal. Jaxson Smith-Njiba is averaging two touchdowns a game, AJ Barner is probably good for a touchdown, and if not, Emanuel Wilson has shown he can score a touchdown as a receiver and rush the ball into the endzone.
The Seahawks could score five touchdowns and a field goal (which I’d be more than happy about), but with the 49ers holding opponents to 16 points a game, let’s call it quits and say four.
For the 49ers, Mike Evans has two games with a touchdown so I think he’s good for a touchdown, Christian McCaffery is averaging a rushing touchdown a game, and George Kittle is good for a touchdown. The 49ers had three touchdowns right there.
Now, the 49ers are averaging 30+ points a game, and the Seahawks have three games of 30+ points this season. McCaffery and Kittle both had two-touchdown games, to put them over 30+ points. However, their 30+ point games were against the Dolphins and Cardinals, both of whom had a weaker defense than the Rams and the Broncos who held them to under 30 points. With the Seahawks having the number one DVOA defense, I believe the Seahawks can hold them under 30 points.
My Score Prediction: 31-24, Seahawks Win
If you want to hear how I got that score and more, you can listen to the podcast here:
What are your score predictions? Who do you think will win? Leave your guesses in the comments and as always, Go Hawks!