Week 3 went 6-for-7. Tyler Shough, Christian Watson and Chuba Hubbard settled for the start, and all three seats were stuck. Dalton Schultz is the one to miss.
That’s closer to the standard I want for this column. Schultz is also a useful miss. He went from 22 targets through two games to just three in Week 3, which is a reminder that two weeks of volume still need to be tested against the role we’re getting today.
For Week 4, I’m leaning toward players whose chances are already in sight. The starts have a workload I can trust, and the sits are great names that don’t get enough work to justify forcing them into a lineup.
Marking: These calls use my current Week 4 Half-PPR ranking. Rest-of-season rank is included so you can see when I’m making a weekly lineup call instead of changing how I value the player for the year. I also analyzed current usage, injuries and independent Week 4 rankings before locking in the seven. When workload is part of the argument, I use PFM’s running back advanced stats and wide receiver advanced stats to evaluate carry share, target share, air yards and efficiency. See the full Week 4 fantasy football rankings.
Jaylen Warren: I am Riding the Bigger Backfield Role
Week 4RB16
Remaining in the SeasonRB25
They will disagree@CLE
Warren finally got the Pittsburgh backfield to himself in Week 3 and made a strong case for keeping more of it. With Rico Dowdle inactive, Warren played 53 offensive snaps, carried 17 times for 127 yards and caught three of four targets for another 49. The other Steelers running backs combined for six snaps and two touchdowns.
The season-long workload is stronger than the raw fantasy totals make it appear. PFM’s running back advanced stats have Warren at 56.7% carry share and 13.3% target share through three games. He averaged 17.3 chances per game and 6.79 yards per touch. Dowdle didn’t practice Monday or Tuesday with a foot injury, and Pittsburgh played Thursday night. I have Warren RB16 for Week 4 and RB25 the rest of the season because the receiving role was there before the Week 3 workload spike.
My Call Start Warren as an RB2. Check Pittsburgh’s final injury report before Thursday’s lockout, but I wouldn’t put him back on the bench after the workload he handled with Dowdle out.
START · WR · INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Josh Downs: Targets Tell Us to Move Before the Box Score
Week 4WR24
Remaining in the SeasonWR50
They will disagree@ AY
Downs has yet to have a blowup game. i don’t care He drew 11 targets in Week 3, catching five for 77 yards and seeing his role grow in back-to-back games. Even while playing 68% of the snaps, he ran a route on 83% of Indianapolis’ dropbacks and led the Colts in targets.
The PFM wide receiver’s advanced stats strengthen the case. Downs has 24 targets through three games, a 25.5% target share and 43.6% of Colts air yards. His 11.7-yard aDOT also tells me that these aren’t just empty under targets. PFM has Downs WR24 for Week 4 but only WR50 the rest of the season. That’s exactly the kind of weekly slot I want to attack before everyone treats him like an automatic perversion.
My Call Start Downs as a WR3 or flex. I’m betting on targets before touchdowns come. If Indianapolis continues to give him plenty of opportunities, the box score will catch up.
START · WR · GREEN BAY PACKERS
Matthew Golden: Thirty Targets in Three Games Is Enough for Me
Week 4WR18
Remaining in the SeasonWR47
They will disagree@ TB
Golden has 30 targets in three games. That’s the number that matters most to me. He led Green Bay with 12 targets in Week 3, turned them into five catches for 100 yards and a touchdown, and now has 15 catches for 253 yards on the season.
The PFM split tells the story. Gold was WR18 for Week 4 but only WR47 the rest of the season. I’m not waiting for the long-term board to catch up before using a receiver who averages 10 targets per game. The wr stats data backs up the opportunity, with Golden sitting at a 25.0% target share, 38.6% air-yard share, 416 air yards and a 13.9-yard aDOT. That’s real downfield volume, not a receiver living off a few broken plays.
My Call Start Golden as a WR2 or flex. If the choice is Golden or a bigger name that lives on five or six targets, I like the receiver that Green Bay is already throwing to 10 times per game.
START · TE · NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Juwan Johnson: Touchdowns Aren’t the Whole Story
Week 4TE8
Remaining in the SeasonTE18
They will disagreecompared to ATL
Johnson scored twice against Las Vegas, but I’m not starting him just because he found the end zone. He has 15 catches for 173 yards and three touchdowns in three games. He gave us 54 yards in Week 1, 66 in Week 2 and then caught eight passes in Week 3.
That’s enough receiving work to be valuable at tight end before we count touchdowns. PFM has Johnson TE8 for Week 4 and TE18 the rest of the season, while the FantasyPros consensus also has him inside the weekly top 10. Atlanta goes to New Orleans on Monday night, and I’d rather take this role than chase a touchdown-only tight end on Sunday.
My Call Start Johnson. I don’t need another two-touchdown game. If he can continue to get this level of participation, the catches and yardage give him a viable path even if the scores cool off.
Courtland Sutton: The Name Does More Work Than the Production
Week 4WR49
Remaining in the SeasonWR35
They will disagree@ SF
Sutton has eight catches for 82 yards through three games. That’s it. He saw seven targets against the Rams and still finished with three catches for 46 yards, which was his best yardage game of the season.
Sutton averaged 18.4% target share, 28.3% air-yard share and 9.6-yard aDOT. He’s getting some usable opportunities, but not enough volume or downfield concentration to make 82 yards through three games seem like a fluke. PFM has him WR49 in San Francisco, and FantasyPros consensus has him WR49 as well.
My Call Sit Sutton if you have a healthy top-40 receiver or back with steady flex volume. Eight catches in three games isn’t enough to keep him starting because of what his name usually means.
Marvin Harrison Jr.: The Name Cannot Carry This Target Share
Week 4WR50
Remaining in the SeasonWR28
They will disagree@ NYG
Arizona threw 52 passes in Week 3 and Harrison saw five targets. Michael Wilson had 17. Harrison finished with three catches for 40 yards, which was his best receiving game of the season, and he had just nine targets through three weeks.
Advanced numbers make it harder to ignore. They have Harrison at just 8.0% target share. He owns a 17.7-yard aDOT and 22.4% of Arizona’s air yards, so the targets he gets could be important. There’s just not enough of them. That’s why I have Harrison WR50 for Week 4 even though he’s still WR28 the rest of the season.
My Call Sit Harrison if you have a healthy top-40 receiver or running back with solid flex volume. If he beats me in a big game, I can live. I need to see Arizona throw his way more than this before I put him back in.
Quentin Johnston: Playing Time Isn’t Enough Anymore
Week 4WR53
Remaining in the SeasonWR37
They will disagree@ SEA
Johnston is still playing a lot of snaps. That was not profitable fantasy production. He’s caught six of 17 targets for 64 yards in three games, and his 3.8 yards per target is the bigger problem than a bad box score.
Our stats show a 19.8% target share, 20.5% air-yard share and 10.1-yard aDOT. Those were underwhelming numbers, but Johnston turned them into just 64 receiving yards. Tre Harris had 10 catches for 149 yards on 16 targets and nearly the same air-yard share. PFM has Johnston WR53 for Week 4 and WR37 the rest of the season. Seattle is not the place where I want to continue to bet that playing time finally turns into production.
My Call Johnston sat down. I’d like to see him turn routes into catches before I trust him again, especially since Harris is getting more work when he gets on the field.
What I Trust in Week 4
The four initiations have something concrete behind them. Warren handled a real lead-back workload without Dowdle. Downs was getting a growing share of the Colts passing game before the touchdowns came. Golden has 30 targets in three games. Johnson had 15 catches, 173 yards and three scores without needing a fluky play to create it all.
Chairs are all trust problems. Sutton has eight catches in three games, Harrison has nine targets in three games and Johnston has made 17 targets for just 64 yards. I’d rather get rid of a recognizable name in a week than keep waiting for volume or efficiency that doesn’t show.
Checked rankings: September 30, 2026. PFM’s Week 4 Half-PPR board was updated on September 29. Jaylen Warren plays Thursday night, so check out Pittsburgh’s final injury report before kickoff. The week 4 rankings are still subject to change as training reports change and news becomes available.