New NFL Betting Systems for the 2026 Season:
I prefaced my NFL Best Bets column this week by saying how strong the NFL betting systems I’ve come to rely on for validating my picks have been lately. Going into Monday night’s Atlanta-New Orleans matchup, I was sporting a 24-12-2 ATS record, my best start in years. For Week 4 alone, I was 6-2-1 ATS before the MNF contest, and I can share with you that some of the plays I made for Week 4 are based on the systems you’re about to read about, as I had access to them near the end of last week and chose to “test run” them before putting them into circulation. I’d say the weekend was a success, so here goes.
As an analytics person, I love digging into the databases I’ve organized to find foundational betting systems. I like it better when they help me convert betting opportunities into wins. This past week, I asked VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen to join me in digging through our recent NFL data to find new systematic data to help improve our weekly VSiN NFL Analytics Reports. He delivered big time, and I’m happy to say we’ll be adding all these nuggets to the reports starting this week. Of course, using the systems in our reports, we qualify the teams for you, so you don’t have to do the digging yourself; just choose the ones you are most confident with.
There are many reasons why a bettor may prefer a particular system over another. And I’ll say this for those of you who still tend to confuse ‘TRENDS” with “SYSTEMS,” because I value the latter more. If you ask me, I consider the league-wide angles you see below to be systems, because they don’t apply to a specific team’s performance tendencies. Rather, they apply to the entire league, and specific teams fall at that time. more importantly, like team change, coaching, and momentum from year to year next time, the team’s tendencies can change on a dime, however, angles across the league that teams of several levels usually don’t experience.
That said, read each angle and decide for yourself which one will serve you best in the future. You can see that many of them have a “going against the grain” feel to them, which, to me, is essential to NFL betting success, as the most obvious trends and teams in any given week are likely to lose. Some bettors found that out the hard way this weekend, with obvious but perhaps undeserving favorites like Buffalo, Arizona, Cincinnati, and Detroit to lose.
Look for these systems and everything else you’ve come to expect from the VSiN Analytics Report when it’s released on Wednesday.
Systems Based on Team Strength/Line Scenarios
– Against undefeated NFL teams, home underdogs/picks are 14-14 SU and 20-8 ATS (71.4%) since 2015
– NFL teams averaging less than 14 PPG at any time are on a 72-63 SU and 86-43-6 ATS (66.7%) run, assuming they are no bigger than an 8-point underdog since 2015 (also 82-53 Overall) and 35-10-2 ATS (77.7%)
– NFL road/neutral teams scoring over 31 PPG are just 36-48 SU and 30-53 ATS (36.1%) since 2020
– NFL teams playing with a point differential of 7 points or worse on the season as home favorites are 59-60 SU and 45-71-3 ATS (38.8%) since 2016
– NFL teams that struggle to run the ball and average <60 RYPG are 17-34 SU and 15-36 ATS (29.4%) at home since 2015
– NFL road teams averaging 8.0 or more yards per pass attempt have been dangerous, 151-101 SU and 143-105-4 ATS (57.7%) since 2015
– Defensively dominant NFL road teams allowing less than 15 PPG have gone just 49-66-1 SU and 42-74 ATS (36.2%) since 2015
– NFL teams playing as underdogs despite a +10 PPG point differential have gone just 30-51 SU and 35-46 ATS (43.2%) since 2016
– NFL teams with a +10 PPG point differential are 70-38 SU but 41-64-3 ATS (39%) vs. unfamiliar non-conference opponents in their last 118 attempts
– Oddsmakers set a good path for whether or not really bad NFL teams have a chance to compete, as those with a -10 PPG differential or worse are 115-121 SU but 141-91-4 ATS (60.8%) unless they’re a TD underdog or bigger (+7 or more) over the last 235 games
– A good NFL offense (>=27 PPG) is a solid bet against a good defense (<=19 PPG) when the big offense is the underdog, 75-56 ATS (57.3%) since 2015
– In NFL games that match up with bad offensive teams (<=19 PPG ang nakapuntos) laban sa masasamang koponan sa pagtatanggol (>=27 PPG allowed), it’s not smart to put up points with a bad offense, as they are 62-52 SU but 40-73-1 ATS (35.4%) since 2015
– In NFL games that match up poor offenses (<=19 PPG) against good defenses (<=19 PPG), poor offensive teams actually do well when the point spread suggests they should, as they are 55-32 SU and 52-31-4 ATS (62.7%) when favored or playing as underdogs of +3 or less.
– The lower total (o/u <= 45) na mga laro sa NFL na kinasasangkutan ng dalawang koponan na parehong may mahinang depensa (>= 26 PPG Allowed) surprisingly these games have been Under at a 41-18 (69.5%) rate since the start of the 2015 season.
– NFL road favorites facing a good run defense (<= 100 RYPG Allowed) haven't been good bets in lower total games (o/u <= 47), going just 80-73 SU but 59-89-5 ATS (39.9%) since the start of the 2015 season.
– In NFL games between two teams with 35% or less winning percentages, and total <= 41, underdogs are 35-30 SU and 44-20-1 ATS (68.8%) since the start of the 2015 season.
– NFL Teams that have a 10% winning percentage or higher than their opponent but play as home underdogs are rightfully priced this way, as they are 15-51 SU and 18-46-2 ATS (28.1%) since the start of the 2017 season.
– With at least four games under their belt for the season, NFL favorites playing a winning percentage at least 25% worse than their opponent have a 32-41-1 SU and 24-48-2 ATS (33.3%) record since the start of the 2015 season.
– In the final months of the regular season (November-January), higher-scoring (>= 26 PPG) NFL road underdogs facing solid defenses (<= 20.5 PAPG) went 25-25 SU but 36-13-1 ATS (73.5%) since 2018.
Systems Based on Extreme Stats Developed by Endgame
– NFL teams that won their last game but lost by 100 yards or more were terrible as huge underdogs (+7 or more) in the next contest, 0-15 SU and 3-12 ATS (20%) in their last 15 attempts.
– NFL teams that won their last game but were outgained by 100 yards or more are also bad as non-conference favorites in the next contest, 4-8 SU and 0-11-1 ATS (0%) in their last 12 tries.
– NFL teams that won their last game but were outgained by 100 yards or more were very good as non-divisional conference favorites in the next contest, 30-6 SU and 26-8-2 ATS (76.5%) since the start of the 2016 season.
– NFL teams that lost their last SU game but were covered ATS have not been good bets as favorites in their next contest, just 50-45 SU and 34-61 ATS (35.8%) since the start of the 2019 season (including 20-18 SU but 9-29 ATS (23.7%) in divisional play over that same time).
– NFL teams that just lost a heartbreaker (<= 3 puntos) sa isang divisional na karibal at naglalaro ngayon sa isang hindi gaanong mapagkumpitensyang laro (>= +7 underdog or <= -7 favorite) has been outscored at a 34-15 (69.4%) rate since the start of the 2017 season.
– NFL teams that scored poorly (<= 10 points) in their previous game loss have been impressive as divisional underdogs in the next contest, going 36-66 SU but 65-34-3 ATS (65.7%) since the start of the 2020 season.
– NFL teams coming off a blowout loss (>= 20 points) have been bad bets as conference underdogs in the next contest, going 18-52-1 SU and 29-41-1 ATS (41.4%) since the start of the 2019 season.
– NFL Teams coming off a double-digit victory over a divisional rival followed that big win with a 32-11 SU and 27-14-2 ATS (65.9%) record as a non-conference home favorite in the next contest since 2015.
– NFL teams coming off an outright win as a huge underdog (+7 or more) and favored in their next game have had a total Downswing rate of 20-9 (69%) since the start of the 2020 season.
Systems Based on Wins or Losses
– NFL teams that have won their last four games have gone 65-13 SU and 49-29 ATS (62.8%) ATS as non-divisional conference home favorites of -3 or more since 2015.
– NFL road teams that have lost two straight SUs but trailed or won ATS in both have gone 0-14 SU and 4-10 ATS (28.6%) as huge underdogs (+7 or more) in their last 14 tries.
– The lower scoring (< 22 PPG) NFL teams coming off back-to-back SU wins are terrible as slight underdogs (+3 or less) in the next game, 12-44-1 SU and 13-41-3 ATS (24.1%) since the start of the 2015 season.
– NFL teams that have won their last three ATS have been bad bets as road favorites of -3 or more against poor offenses (PPG <= 19) in the next contest, 15-14 SU but 6-20-3 ATS (23.1%) in their last 29 tries.
SPONSORED
TONY GEORGE continues to break down the MLB Sportsbook.
Tony finished the 2026 MLB Regular Season +120 Units/+$8060 in a low volume, strategy designed strategy.
His MLB Top Picks are 24-12 YTD.
But Tony wasn’t done yet. He also carried that momentum into the Playoffs:
- 6-1 in MLB Playoffs to date (10/5)
- +$1450 in the last 7 Days
- 1 Top Pick so far in Playoffs Cashed
Check them out here.
If you’re looking for winning MLB picks from a trusted Handicapper with a track record in 2026 that’s hard to find in the marketplace, look for Tony’s MLB Playoff Picks at Docs Sports
Get your free trial on him at docsports.com