As the NFL season enters its halfway point this week, I have good news for everyone: All 32 teams are still mathematically alive to make the playoffs. And yes, that means even the Titans and Chargers can still make the postseason. I don’t think they will, but they can, and that’s what matters here.
Heading into Week 9, this is when we finally start to see the contenders separate themselves from the pretenders. But who are the real opponents? Who will actually make it to the playoffs? Glad you asked.
To help us figure that out, we have analytics expert, Stephen Oh, simulate the rest of the 2026 season. There are 151 games left on the regular season schedule, including 13 playoff games, and Oh has simulated them all. Not only did he project all eight division winners and the 14 playoff teams, but he also crowned a Super Bowl champion.
With that in mind, let’s get to the projections. And just as a reminder, we’re projecting what the NFL playoff field will look like at the end of the season. This is NOT the current playoff standings.
Expected AFC playoff field
The AFC playoff projections underwent some major changes this week. The Broncos flipped the AFC West with their win over the Chiefs. Thanks to that success, our model now assumes that Denver will end up winning the division title for the second year in a row.
Here is the projected AFC playoff field (with each team’s current record):
1. Bills (6-1) — AFC East champion
2. Jaguars (5-2) — AFC South champion
3. Broncos (6-2) — AFC West champion
4. Bengals (5-2) — AFC North champion
5. Leaders (5-2)
6. Steelers (6-2)
7. Patriots (5-3)
JUST MISSED: Texans (2-5), Browns (5-3)
If the Broncos win the AFC West, the Chiefs will enter the playoffs as a wild-card team, which has never happened in Patrick Mahomes’ career. Since he took over the starting job in 2018, the Chiefs have made the playoffs a total of seven times, and all of those came after a season in which Kansas City won the division. The Chiefs have been so good with Mahomes that they have NEVER played a road game in the wild card round with him at quarterback, but we’ll see it happen this year.
Expected NFC playoff field
For the third time this season, we have a new team expected to win the NFC North. The Bears took over the top spot after their dominant win over the Seahawks on Monday night. Over the past eight weeks, we’ve seen the Vikings and Lions both expected to win the division, but heading into Week 9, our computer likes Da’ Bears.
Here’s the projected NFC playoff field (with each team’s current record):
1. 49ers (6-1) — NFC West champion
2. Bears (6-2) — NFC North champion
3. Giants (4-2-1) — NFC East champion
4. Buccaneers (3-5) — NFC South champion
5. Vikings (6-1)
6. Lions (5-2)
7. Seahawks (4-4)
JUST MISSED: Packers (5-3), Rams (4-4)
For the first time in NFL history, we could have a situation where TWO teams win their division despite not being over .500. Right now, our projection is for the Giants to win the NFC East with an 8-8-1 record and the Buccaneers to win the NFC South at 8-9. The Bucs started the season 0-4, but our computer likes them after watching Tampa Bay destroy two division rivals — the Panthers and Falcons — in back-to-back weeks.
There have been seasons where two teams made the playoffs at .500 or worse, but it always included at least one wild card team. For example, the Commanders won the NFC East with a 7-9 record in 2020 while the Bears came in as a wild card team with an 8-8 record. However, there has never been a situation where two divisional winners both finished .500 or worse. If that happens, the biggest losers will be the Packers and Rams, both of whom are expected to miss the playoffs despite finishing above .500.
Wild card round
AFC
- (2) Jaguars 27-20 over (7) Patriots. The last time these two teams met in the postseason, the Jags lost in a controversial AFC Championship game. This time, the Jags will get revenge. Jacksonville beat the Patriots 35-6 in Week 3, and even though this game was closer, the Jags still got the win.
- (3) Broncos 21-19 over (6) Steelers. The last time the Broncos won the Super Bowl in 2015, they started their playoff run with a win over the Steelers, so it could be deja vu for fans in Denver. These two teams will actually face off on Black Friday, so we’ll see them compete in the regular season before a possible playoff game in January.
- (4) Bengals 26-25 over (5) Chiefs. If there’s one quarterback who’s had great success against Patrick Mahomes, it’s Joe Burrow. Not only did he lead the Bengals to a win in the 2021 AFC title game, but Burrow is 2-0 all-time against the Chiefs at home, and he continues the streak here.
NFC
- (2) Bears 24-21 over (7) Seahawks. These two teams just met on Monday night with the Bears destroying the Seahawks on the road in Seattle. This time, the Seahawks made it close, but they couldn’t quite figure out how to stop Ben Johnson’s offense.
- (6) Lions 29-23 against (3) Giants. The Lions have never won a road playoff game during the Super Bowl (0-12), but they ended that drought here with a win against an overmatched Giants team.
- (4) Buccaneers 21-17 over (5) Vikings. The Buccaneers made history in this game by becoming the first NFC team to overcome an 0-4 start to make the playoffs. The Bucs then used their strong rushing attack to run over Minnesota’s defense. With the loss, the Vikings’ 6-0 start was wasted, and Minnesota was forced to spend another offseason searching for a quarterback.
And now, we’re down to our final eight teams.
Divisional round
AFC
- (1) Bills 34-24 over (4) Bengals. The Bills came out on fire after their bye week and knocked off the Bengals in what would be the team’s first playoff game in their new stadium. This is sure to be an interesting matchup, and that’s because Joe Burrow is 2-1 all-time against Josh Allen.
- (2) Jaguars 21-19 over (3) Broncos. The Jaguars’ first divisional playoff win was back in 1996 against the Broncos, and history repeats itself here as the Jaguars knock off Denver again. This game ended up being a back-and-forth thriller decided by a Cam Little field goal late in the fourth quarter.
NFC
- (1) 49ers 28-27 over (6) Lions. Three years ago, the Lions blew a 24-7 lead against the 49ers in the NFC title game. They finally get their shot at revenge here, but they fall short. Brock Purdy outlasts Jared Goff and leads the 49ers to their fifth NFC title game in the past eight seasons.
- (2) Bears 28-19 over (4) Buccaneers. These two teams actually play THIS WEEK on Sunday night in Chicago, so we can get a possible preview of what a playoff game might look like. The Bucs’ defense has been strong this season, but in our playoff game, it couldn’t slow down Caleb Williams and the Bears’ offense. With a win here, the Bears advance to their first NFC title game since 2010.
If you’re keeping score at home, we’re now down to four teams: Two teams that have never won a Super Bowl (Bills and Jaguars) and two teams that haven’t won a Super Bowl in over 30 years. The 49ers’ last title came in 1994, while the Bears haven’t won the Lombardi Trophy since 1985, when they won their first and only Super Bowl.
Conference title games
AFC Championship
- (1) Bills 28-24 over (2) Jaguars. Last year, the Jaguars’ season ended with a painful playoff loss to the Bills, and unfortunately for Jacksonville, they lost to Buffalo for the second year in a row. With Josh Allen aiming to go to his first Super Bowl, he dominated the game and led the Bills to a tight win.
NFC Championship
- (2) Bears 26-24 over (1) 49ers. With two offensive gurus going at it in Kyle Shanahan and Ben Johnson, this game could come down to who plays the better defense, and right now, the Bears have the edge on that side of the ball. The Bears’ acquisition of Jeffery Simmons ends up being the move that puts them over the top as Chicago’s defense comes up with some big plays in a wild road win. These two storied franchises have only met twice in the NFC title game (1984, 1988), and the 49ers won both, but Chicago finally got revenge.
Super Bowl LXI at SoFi Stadium
- (1) Bills 27-26 over (1) Bears. If these two teams end up in the Super Bowl, it’s sure to be a wild week in Los Angeles. Bills fans will come out with their folding tables, and Bears fans will parade the Super Bowl from Chicago to LA wearing their Ditka mustaches to honor Da’ Coach, who led the Bears to their only Super Bowl win in 1985. Unfortunately for the Bears, they didn’t have that defense in 1985 to stop Josh Allen. The Bills quarterback won his team, and the city of Buffalo celebrated by having everyone jump on a flaming folding table. Joe Brady became just the third coach this century to lead his team to a Super Bowl victory in his first year on the job. DJ Moore got revenge on his old team by having a big game. As for Allen, he finally got the Super Bowl monkey off his back, and Bills fans are holding a parade that runs from Los Angeles to Buffalo.
We’ve been doing a projection every week since the start of the season, and here’s a look at the expected Super Bowl each week.
- Preseason prediction: Rams at Ravens
- After Week 1: Seahawks over Ravens
- After Week 2: Seahawks over Chiefs
- After Week 3: Leaders among the Vikings
- After Week 4: Seahawks over Chiefs
- After Week 5: 49ers at Chiefs
- After Week 6: Leaders over the 49ers
- After Week 7: Fees to the Vikings
- After Week 8: Bills at Bears
As you can see, this is the first time all season that the Bears are expected to make the Super Bowl. According to our model, the Bears have a 17.96% chance to win the NFC, with the 49ers sitting right behind them at 16.99%. There are only two other teams higher than 10%: the Lions (15.92%) and Vikings (13.22%).
Until the Super Bowl win, the computer says it’s Bills or bust. Buffalo has a 15.5% chance of winning it all, which is a huge number when you consider that no other team has more than 10%.