🏈 Can Bears Stop Jaxon Smith-Njigba?
That’s a big question heading into tonight’s Chicago–Seattle matchup (8:15 pm ET, ESPN).
The answer, according to VSiN’s prop tools, is no.
As Zach Cohen points out in his betting preview, Opta AI projects for Smith-Njigba 105.01 receiving yards — more than his DraftKings total of 97.5 yards. And our WR–CB Matchup Tool, courtesy of FantasyPoints.com’s John Hansen, shows Smith-Njigba having the biggest advantage in Week 8 against his projected cornerback matchup, Malik Muhammad.
The NFL Prop Analyzer adds another data point: Smith-Njigba is 6-1 in the Over on a 97.5-yard receiving line.
» Zach Cohen’s Bears–Seahawks betting preview
» Opta AI player prop projection
» WR–CB Matchup Tool
» NFL Prop Analyzer: Smith-Njigba
There’s another interesting head-to-head: new All-Pro acquisitions Quenton Nelson (Seattle guard) and Jeffery Simmons (Chicago defensive tackle) will face off for the 14th time.
But Matt Youmans has a different take on the other matchup: “The Seahawks’ defense is No. 1 against the pass (144 yards per game) and fourth in scoring (17.9 ppg), so it will be interesting to see what Bears quarterback Caleb Williams can do a week after holding off Patrick Mahomes in Seattle.”
» Best Bet by Matt Youmans
Chicago will still be without Kyle Monangai, who missed his fourth straight game with a thumb and toe injury.
» Bears–Seahawks injury report
NFL Rewind / Fast Forward: The Ravens are hurting
In Sunday’s email, we highlighted VSiN BOLT’s prop pick of Lamar Jackson Less than 19.5 completions. He ended up with a zero — after injuring his thumb on his first attempt. Jackson is expected to be out at least four weeks after surgery.
His replacement, Tyler Huntley, was out with a turf toe injury, leaving emergency quarterback Joe Fagnano to finish the 36-10 loss at Buffalo.
Those injuries, combined with Jacksonville’s 42-10 beatdown by Indianapolis and a quick return for Thursday Night Football, helped make for a massive Week 9 transition: BAL -3 in view of JAX -8.5 by Sunday evening.
Baker Mayfield also didn’t complete a pass, but the Buccaneers (-2) beat Atlanta 16-0 in rain-soaked Tampa — the first NFL win since Buffalo did it in 1974. Mayfield’s passer rating (39.6) still leads Michael Penix’s 12.0; Penix threw four interceptions.
Detroit (-3.5) handed previously unbeaten Minnesota its first loss, 19-15. At last report, Lions linebacker Jack Campbell remained hospitalized with a neck injury.
Dave Tuley’s Week 8 ATS report: The favorites are 10-2 up and 8-4 ATS through Sunday, with one pick’em (Chiefs–Broncos). Unders lead 7-6. For the season, favorites are 75-41-1 straight up, but underdogs are still ahead 58-53-6 ATS (52.3%). Overs lead 61-57-2 (51.7%).
» Adam Burke’s Week 9 Opening Lines Report
🏆 Contest Update
The Bengals (-13.5) gave the players a real scare, needing overtime to defeat Tennessee 43-36.
About Survivor: 610 entries advanced to Week 9, including 350 who survived the sweat of the Bengals. Dallas’ stunning 33-30 overtime loss at Arizona (+7.5) eliminated 49 entries, and one sad entry came out with the Jets.
About Grandissimo All three remaining entries advanced with Cincinnati.
Circa Million: The top five teams picked went 4-1 in Week 8, improving to 19-20-2 (48.7%) for the season. Wins: Bills -3, Steelers -3, Lions -3.5 and Broncos +1.5. The lone loser was the Vikings +3.5. The No. 1 consensus pick (Buffalo) is now 6-2 (75%).
Circa Friday Football Invitational: Alex White’s 7-0 Week 8 raises him to 38-18, ahead of Steve Fezzik at 34-19-3.
EdgeBoost Average Joe: Mike Wurmay leads overall at 44-12.
» VSiN Contest Hub
» Friday Football Invitational standings
» Average Joe standing
🏈 College Football: MACtion returns
Adam Burke prepares for the return of the midweek MACtion and a Saturday slate full of ranked matchups. The headliner: Miami at Notre Dame (-4.5, 58 total) Saturday at 7:30 pm ET on NBC.
Circa opened Notre Dame -5 and has a total of 58. With most books around -5.5 Sunday night, Circa’s current -4.5 stands out.
Adam also updated his Week 10 power ratings, referred to six games where his numbers differ significantly from the betting line.
» Adam Burke’s Week 10 Betting Report
» Six potential values in Week 10 power ratings
🏀 College Basketball: 181 Games Today
College basketball tips with 181 games now, and the Field of 68 Opening Day Marathon is underway as I write this.
Adam Burke breaks down the rest of the marathon matches. Meanwhile, Steve Makinen offers three sets of power ratings for every game, every day.
For a tip: Choose “Just Starring” in Steve’s ratings to isolate games where his numbers indicate value against the posted spread or total.
» Adam Burke’s opening day review
» Steve Makinen’s college daily gets power ratings
DONBEST: Keep college hoops rotation numbers handy. » Get the College Basketball Rotation Book for $4.99
🎾 Tennis: Paris Masters opens
The final ATP Masters 1000 event of the season begins in Paris. Zach Cohen sees a compelling outright case for Carlos Alcaraz, who showed signs of returning to top form in Vienna, while Daniil Medvedev’s recent hard-court surge makes him an interesting quarter bet.
Zach also has three opening-day match bets, including a game-wide angle built around Hubert Hurkacz’s serve against Lorenzo Musetti.
» Zach Cohen’s Paris Masters picks and futures
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