🏈 Chiefs, NASCAR and Metallica
Almost everyone I met here in Las Vegas this week seemed to be here for one of three things: the Chiefs, NASCAR or Metallica.
We will discuss all three today.
Let’s start with the Chiefs.
Are the 3-0 Raiders real?
Las Vegas is a 4.5-point home underdog against the 3-0 Chiefs, who are experiencing a resurgence with a healthy Patrick Mahomes.
Kansas City is also heading into its bye week — which gives me the opportunity to introduce (or re-introduce) you to Steve Makinen’s pre-bye week betting systems.
The big one: Teams heading into their bye against a division opponent are 58-25-1 ATS since 2013 — 69.9%, +30.6 units and 36.7% ROI.
That’s particularly interesting to Andy Reid in his 14th season in Kansas City. The Chiefs themselves are 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight pre-bye games.
And Steve’s systems point to something interesting totaltoo.
>> Check out Steve Makinen’s Pre-Bye Week Betting Systems
One more thing: To those of us with disabilities at VSiN, Dave Tuley took the Chiefs-Raiders position.
>> See Tuley’s Chiefs-Raiders Pick
🎯 NFL Week 4 Best Bets
Matt Youmans — 6 plays
Wes Reynolds — 6 plays
Zach Cohen — 3 plays
By Steve Makin — 9 more plays
Dustin Swedelson — 5 player props
🇬🇧 Don’t Forget: Football starts at 9:30 ET
You don’t have to wait until the normal Sunday window.
The Colts (-4.5) and Commanders kick off from London at 9:30 a.m. ETand Mitch Moss and Pauly Howard will have the game live during VSiN’s Pro Football Tailgate Show from 9 am-Noon ET.
VSiN Countdown to Kickoff with Stormy Buonantony and Jonathan Von Tobel taking over from noon-1 pm ET.
And if you’re looking for an early game bet, a Marcus Mariota prop is one of seven player props BOLT made for Sunday.
>> See All 7 BOLT Plays
🧰 Last-Minute NFL Tools
🤖 Opta AI NFL Player Prop Projection →
🔎 NFL Player Prop Analyzer →
🏈 Weekly Matchups and Advanced Statistics →
📊 DraftKings and Circa NFL Betting Splits →
🎯 Every NFL Week 4 Pick From VSiN Hosts & Guests →
⚡ Complete NFL Week 4 Betting Hub →
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🏆 What Tournament Players Rate
🇺🇸 Eight Handicappers. Eight Patriots Picks.
Patriots +7 vs. Bills is the most popular NFL pick among Circa Friday Football Invitational contestants.
And there is no disagreement: all eight handicappers who played the game backed New England.
>> View All 175 Invitational Picks
📈 Joe Bettors Average Scores
Here’s a more valid opinion from the EdgeBoost Average Joe Contest.
Of the participants who played in total in Lions-Panthers, 97% took Over 51.
>> See Average Joe Week 4 Picks
☠️ Survivor is down to Two Teams
Circa Survivor begins Sunday of 6,285 entries are still alive in search of $25 million.
And most of them ride on the same two teams:
Vikings — 2,733 picks (43.4%)
Ravens — 2,449 (38.9%)
Seahawks — 442 (7.0%)
Charges — 178 (2.8%)
Foals — 161 (2.6%)
That’s 82.3% of the field in Minnesota or Baltimore.
💰 Grandissimo is more concentrated
Only 24 entries stay in the $100,000-entry Circa Grandissimo — and each of them picks one of only three teams:
Ravens — 13 (54.2%)
Vikings — 9 (37.5%)
Seahawks — 2 (8.3%)
That’s 91.7% of the remaining Grandissimo field in Baltimore or Minnesota.
📋 Rams leads Circa Million
The Rams -3 are the No. 1 Week 4 consensus play among Circa Million participants, appearing on 2,032 submitted cards.
1. Rams -3 — 2,032 (35.3%)
2. Charges -6.5 — 1,670 (29.0%)
3. 49ers -2.5 — 1,610 (28.0%)
4. Bears -3 — 1,481 (25.7%)
5. Bengals -2.5 — 1,254 (21.8%)
>> See All Circa Week 4 Contest Picks
💬 From VSiN Community
VSiN Community member Joe Freda likes a particular home underdog today — and he’s fighting back publicly. (Nice call Arizona, Joe!)
>> Check out Joe’s Sunday Best Bet
Have a Monday Night Football pick you want to share with others?
>> Post It to the VSiN Community
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⚾ The Long Ball reigned supreme on Saturday
Four playoff games.
The team that hits more home runs goes 4-0.
Adam Burke’s takeaway: Manufacturing runs in this environment are extremely difficult, putting more weight on power and bullpen decisions.
He thought he was the manager of the White Sox Did Venable handle Game 1 wellespecially in his reliever deployment. On the other side, Atlanta’s Walt Weiss left AJ Smith-Shawver far too long and watched a 2-1 game turn 5-1 in a hurry.
Now, the same NL series returns:
Padres at Brewers — 4 pm ET
Braves at Dodgers — 8 p.m. ET
Something Adam watches: Milwaukee used all of its high-leverage relievers on Saturday, while San Diego looked to go all out. That could be important as the series progresses.
Adam will have his Game 2 Best Bets this morning.
>> VSiN’s MLB Playoff Coverage
And don’t sleep on the VOLT’s MLB picks: They’re 10-2 over the past week.
>> See VOLT MLB Plays Now
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🏁 NASCAR Takes Over Vegas Too
The Cup Series is at Las Vegas Motor Speedway today for the South Point Casino 400 — and qualifying may be more important here than at most tracks.
Twelve of the last 13 LVMS winners have started inside the Top 10.
Steve Makinen’s final simulation sees clearly two-car breakaway at the top between Kyle Larson and pole-sitter Denny Hamlinfollowed by a four-driver battle for the remaining Top 5 spots.
Steve’s projected Top 5: Larson, Hamlin, Bell, Briscoe and Reddick.
>> Check out Steve’s Full Race Simulation
>> South Point Casino 400 Preview & Odds
🤘 And Finally … Metallica
I made a promise to you Chiefs, NASCAR and Metallica.
Dave Tuley was at Metallica’s Saturday night show at the Sphere. His review:
“Awesome.”
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