NFL predictions: 4 keys to Lions victory over Cardinals in Week 5

The Detroit Lions (2-2) and Arizona Cardinals (1-3) will square off in Week 4, with both teams looking to get back on the winning track.

“New week, new opponent, Arizona,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said earlier this week. “These guys are playing hard. (Cardinals Head) Coach (Mike) LaFleur’s doing a really good job with them, man. They’ve been in all these games. […] So check it out, let’s take the best of this group. They are getting ready to leave. They’re looking to win, and so are we.”

Let’s take a look at this matchup and predict how the Lions will pull off a victory over the Cardinals in this week’s Honolulu Blueprint.

This week’s predictions preview is sponsored by the folks at FanDuel Sportsbookthe Lions are currently listed at +2700 to win this year’s Super Bowl and are 5.5-point favorites in Week 4.

For a detailed look at the opposing methods, check out our complementary breakdown piece: Lions Week 5 preview: Breaking down the Cardinals’ offensive and defensive schemes.

Prediction 1: Jameson Williams catalyst to offensive success

When wide receivers coach Scottie Montgomery discussed Jameson Williams’ performance through the first four games of the season, he was candid about the receiver’s missed opportunities. Many view his comments as overly harsh or overly critical, but this coaching staff doesn’t pull their punches and the players often respond to that positively.

“Every target he had in that game had to be a catch,” Montgomery said. “If it hits you in the foot, fingers, you jump, and it hits you, you’ve got to catch it. He understands that part. But that’s exactly what I’m saying: You can’t be boom or bust in this league.”

Williams, who has been credited with five drops in four games, acknowledged Montgomery’s criticism and agreed that he could be better with his consistency, telling Will Burchfield of 97.1 The Ticket that “if I grade it myself, it’s probably one of my worst starts of my career.”

While Williams failed to catch at least 50 receiving yards in each of the first three games, he hauled in six of his eight targets for 102 yards against the Panthers’ zone-shell defense last week. A bounce-back performance that offensive coordinator Drew Petzing believes could lead to more production.

“The first thing I’m going to look at is effort, dedication, strength, and intensity. And I think he’s doing a good job,” Petzing said of Williams. “He came back and made some big plays for us. […] I’m happy with where he’s at, and I always say, ‘Hey, can you give us more? Can you make more plays? Could you have a bigger role?’ And I think he likes that.”

In the past, a zone-shell defense like the Cardinals run would present problems for Williams’ vertical style of play, but as he showed last week in Carolina, Williams can do more than stretch the defense.

The Cardinals’ secondary Vic Fangio style (two-high split-safety shell with heavy Cover-3, -4 and -6 looks) can be difficult to throw against. But it’s also a difficult system to operate, and if players don’t do their homework correctly, it can be exposed and broken.

Williams is exactly the type of player that exposes flaws in this zone.

Look for the Lions to lean on Williams early in this game, giving him a chance to stretch safeties in zone, make contested plays downfield, and respond to his critics. If he can—which players often do when challenged this way—he’ll force the Cardinals’ safeties to expand into their coverage zone and open things up underneath for players like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs.

Prediction 2: Jared Goff chooses the Cardinals’ zone defense

Last week against the Panthers, Jared Goff threw for 412 yards and a score, including a 49-yard catch to Williams and a 57-yarder to Isaac TeSlaa. The Cardinals’ zones are even looser.

Against the pass this season, the Cardinals are having a worse statistical season than the second Lions—and we all know how Detroit fans feel about their performance. Here’s a look at some statistics to support this statement:

With the Cardinals’ run defense looking solid (run defense DVOA: 10th), look for the Lions to keep the ball in Goff’s hands, move away from an even run/pass split, and let one of the NFL’s top passers (third in passing yards, fifth in passer rating, third in EPA vs. zone, second in work passing grade)

Prediction 3: Lions DBs step up to stop the run early

Despite having two talented running backs on the roster—third overall pick Jeremiyah Love and Tyler Allgeier—the Cardinals’ rushing output has been mediocre:

Some of the lack of rushing production is due to the Cardinals getting behind in most games and having to rely on the passing attack, but the real catalyst is their inability to make explosive plays on offense. Because the Cardinals didn’t push the ball downfield, defenses drove defenders closer to the line of scrimmage, resulting in the fewest explosive plays in the NFL and 29th in runs gaining 10+ yards, with just six on the season.

While the Cardinals’ rushing attack isn’t scary on paper, their game film raises some concerns. Arizona is at their best when deploying their out-zone rushing attack, and because they have the talent to get to the edge, the Lions will need their defensive backs and linebackers to be involved in stopping those stretch plays—an area they’ve struggled with lately.

For the Lions to take down the Cardinals’ rushing attack, they’ll need their entire defense—especially the defensive backs on the sidelines—focused on stopping the run early in this game, and if the Lions’ offense can also put up points, they’ll force Arizona into a situation where they have to throw to keep up.

Prediction 4: The Lions pass rush wins the game

The Lions’ biggest advantage in this game is arguably Detroit’s pass rush versus Arizona’s pass protection. If the Lions’ struggling defense can hang their hat on one area of ​​their defense to build around, it has to be their pass rush. Through four games, they’re near the top of the NFL in rushing production:

“We have to feed off of them. And I told those guys, ‘I will lean on you all.’ Because of the evidence that has been proven,” said Lions defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard. “These guys are playing at an elite level. […] When you have guys playing like that up front, we should benefit, celebrating things like that.”

While the Cardinals offensive line has done a decent job of keeping Jacoby Brissett upright (allowing 53 pressures, 16th in the NFL, and just seven sacks, 10th best), they will need to overcome the potential loss of two starters this week. Left tackle Paris Johnson (arguably their best OL) was placed on injured reserve after tearing his biceps last game, while right guard Isaiah Adams didn’t practice all week after injuring his ankle and is in danger of missing this game.

While Brissett avoided sacks, he didn’t perform well under pressure. Through four games this season, according to SumerSports, Brissett’s EPA when pressured ranks 29th in the NFL among qualified quarterbacks, and 40th when teams blitz him.

Look for the Lions to try to shorten the field with their secondary design, work to limit the rushing attack on the edges, and let their pass rushers win this game for them.