The Dolphins had their moments in week 4 to secure their first victory of the season, despite the ugliness of the game. Alas, they were unable to get it done. They have one more contest before their week 6 bye and it happens to be the Cincinnati Bengals. For the first time this season, the Dolphins face a team that has lost a game. The Bengals are coming off a 22-17 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Unlike in weeks past, this game has a feel like Miami could steal an early victory from a daunting schedule. It won’t be easy, but for the first time in forever, there is legitimate hope.
HOME COOKIN’ ONCE AGAIN
Being from the south and the Appalachian (apple-AT-chan, not apple-A-chan) Mountains, a home cooked meal is something we all look forward to ’round these parts. The Dolphins finally get to have some home cookin’ with 3 of their next 4 contests in the confines of Joe Robbie Hard Rock Stadium. The Vikings’ offense is pretty bad from a stats perspective, but the first 3 opponents Miami faced are top 8 in scoring. The Chiefs are 6th at 29.5 and have scored 30 or more points in 3 of their first 4 games. The lone exception? The game in Miami. Miami held the Chiefs to 24 points, with 7 of those coming in the final few minutes. We all know how bad the Dolphins are, but they held a 4-0 contender with a top QB in check for the better part of a game. Not coincidentally, that was the only game played in Miami this season. The weather and scorching Miami sun should have the Bengals hotter than a Mercedes-Benz with the windows up when the temp goes up to the mid-80s. The predicted temp for the game in the high 80s so you know that opposing sideline will be blistering hot. Like with the Chiefs, if the Dolphins can get the ground game going and lean on big Ollie Gordon, they can wear down the Bengals. Plus, this will be the Bengals 3rd road game in 5 weeks, just like the Dolphins and right before their bye week, just like the Dolphins.
THE OFFENSE HAS AN OPPORTUNITY
Last week was expected to be a problem for the Miami offense. The Vikings are the top scoring defense, produce the most pressures and sacks, and blitz more than anyone else. This week, the Dolphins get a team in the Bengals that are up there in terms of pressures, but overall, have allowed the 7th most passing yards in the NFL. They are 20th in passer rating allowed. The Bengals are 8th in rushing yards allowed but are 23rd in YPC allowed at 4.5 YPC. The Dolphins had a breakout game from Ollie Gordon last week. According to Next Gen Stats, OG2 is 5th in efficiency at 3.16 (Bijan Robinson is 4th at 3.14 – the lower the number, the more north-south a runner is). The Bengals are near the bottom of the league in missed tackles with 29. A bruising, angry runner against a team that missed tackles and has a high YPC rate in the hot Miami sun could be formula for sustained drives and offensive success. The Dolphins are averaging 4.3 YPA, so this matchup may favor the Dolphins. The Bengals have a low CP allowed at just 63.8% but are 21st in YPA allowed at 7.7 and are tied for 31st in INT% at 0.7%; they have 1 INT on the season. They are also last in YAC allowed with 603 yards after catch. There should be opportunities for the offense to get something going in the passing game.
THE DEFENSE HAS AN OPPORTUNITY
The Bengals have the 5th best passing offense and that’s bad news for a struggling Dolphins pass defense. However, the secondary has started coming together with rookie Chris Johnson starting to stand out in a good way. The Chiefs and Vikings both stayed away from him for the most part. The Bengals don’t have to worry about weapons as they have a dynamic WR duo in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. But those two may miss the game this week. Chase in in concussion protocol and Higgins is hindered by a hip adductor injury. If they play, they may not be 100%. If they DON’T play, then the Bengals’ next group of WRs are rookie Dohnte Meyers (16 targets), Mitchell Tinsley (7 targets), Andre Iosivas (4 targets), and rookie Colbie Young (2 targets). This isn’t to underestimate these players, but you’d rather face them than the Chase/Higgins duo. Their passing game will rely on RB Chase Brown, who is 3rd on the team in targets at 24 and former Dolphins TE Mike Gesicki (15 targets).
Last week, the Dolphins struggled with Hockenson, but one could assume they’d learn from that. Plus, Gesicki has never been a shifty player in the open field, nor has he been a big YAC guy. The Bengals are mid-pack in terms of sack percentage, but Miami is starting to turn up the heat with Chop getting 10 pressures against the Vikings and the Dolphins getting 4 sacks last week. Burrow has been pressured about 1 every 4 dropbacks this season. They have improved their OL, so this will be a good test for the emerging Dolphins pass rush. However, with the 2 biggest playmakers ailing, the Bengals may opt for short, quick passes to underneath targets.
The Dolphins are tied for 5th in missed tackles with 14, so they are at least good at getting players to the ground. On the ground, the Bengals are near the bottom in both total yards and YPA. The Bengals are 31st in yards with 297 and only 4 teams in the league have a lower YPC than the 3.6 the Bengals are averaging. The Dolphins struggled last week against Aaron Jones but did well against the 49ers rushing attack and held league leader in both yards and YPA Kenneth Walker III to 70 yards and under 4.0 YPC (he’s averaging 6.2 YPC and 134.3 YPG). The Bengals’ RBs only have 71 attempts on the season for 249 yards (3.5 YPA). Meanwhile, Burrow is averaging over 39 pass attempts per game. Needless to say, unless the Bengals flip the script in this game, they are going to pass a lot more than they will run. The Dolphins may also get a boost from the return of Kenneth Grant to help boost the middle of the defense. In any case, there could be favorable matchups for the defense to get some stops and get off the field.
I am loathe to start a QB discussion because, well, I’ve been in WAY too many of them over the course of 16 years on The Phinsider. I covered and argued for them all from Chad Henne to #BlameTannehill to Tua. QBs and OL are the hottest of hot topics amongst this fanbase. I covered in the Tuesday article that Willis is struggling but doesn’t have great help. Those things are not mutually exclusive; both can be and are true. Based on the stats I look at, he is below the standard. His completion percentage is at the bottom, ironically right there with his previous teammate Jordan Love. His YPA is below the Mendoza line at 6.9 – tied with Justin Tannehill Herbert (and above Jordan Love). His INT% is at least decent at 1.9%, but he has only thrown 1 TD, so his TD% is abysmal. These numbers MUST improve significantly. I think it’s premature to write Willis off after 4 games with this team. Perhaps some see the following reasons, but they are legitimate issues. It’s a new offense with a new OC (see the LA Chargers) and that can take time with even good QBs (see the LA Chargers). He is playing with limited pass catchers who have been struggling to create separation on a consistent basis. Three of them are rookies. One of the rookies has missed time. Another is working back from a major injury just last November. He has faced 4 teams that are a combined 15-1 and have the 7th, 8th, 11th, and 18th best passing defenses, two of those without his best offensive weapons in Achane and Douglas. All four of those teams are top half in pressure percentage, but 2 of them are 1st and 2nd (more on that in a moment). None of these issues/reasons/excuses are conducive to a productive offense, even if Willis was great. But he needs to start showing signs of improvement. Even with those things, Willis isn’t passing the eye test either. He is missing stuff. He doesn’t look comfortable and doesn’t look confident.
Some of his issues will be that his style is not what we are used to seeing. Say what you will about Tua, but he was OUTSTANDING with throwing to a spot with anticipation. We were spoiled to watch that and even then, we complained. I have seen some film of passes Willis could have made IF he could throw with anticipation like Tua. But few can do what Tua could do as well as Tua could do it (see the LA Chargers). We will very likely NOT see Willis throw in a similar fashion. That is fine as long as the offense isn’t specifically geared to those types of throws. If anything, I would say Willis is pushing it right now – trying to do too much and panicking. I have lobbied for Slowik to dial up some easy completions – some quick crossers or out-routes that get 4-6 yards every play. That’s not exciting football, but it keeps the offense on schedule and ahead of the sticks. Remember the only preseason drive Willis played? What did the offense look like? The 1st two plays were quick out to the left for 4 yards and then roll-out quick pass to the right for 7 yards and a 1st down. These aren’t game-breaking plays or super-secret scheme deals. These are basic NFL throws you can get on Madden. Every team in the NFL has them and uses them. But as soon as Miami got the regular season, it disappeared. Bring them back. Use more basic, ordinary plays like that because they work. They don’t light up the score board, but it moves the chains and more importantly in this case, it builds confidence and rhythm with a QB who is struggling.
The Dolphins faced the top pressure defense in week 4 against Brian Flores and the Minnesota Vikings. They also lead the league with 16 sacks. This week, the Dolphins face the 7th best pressure defense in Cincinnati, who generate a pressure 27.6% of the time. Cincinnati is tied for 3rd with 14 sacks and tied for 3rd in sack percentage at 9.9%. They can get after the QB. The good news is the Bengals blitz less than any team except the Eagles. They only blitz 16% of the time (down only slightly from the 66.9% they got from Minnesota). The bad news is that this means they generate pressure with their defensive front. The good news with this is that half of their 14 sacks have come from interior pressure which is currently the strength of the Miami offensive line. The bad news is that the interior OL hasn’t really been tested like it will be with Cincinnati. The Chiefs have Chris Jones, but none of the other 3 teams have pass rushing interior DL like Dexter Lawrence and Jonathan Allen. Kadyn Proctor has looked steady even as a rookie. Savaiinaea is looking much improved. Brewer isn’t playing at the All-Pro level but is still a great player. But how much of that is who they played vs. actual improvement. This also doesn’t factor in the fact that Austin Jackson has fallen off a cliff and will face some combo of Boye Mafe, Myles Murphy, Cedric Johnson, and Shemar Stewart who have 6.5 of the remaining 7 sacks. Patrick Paul had a rough day with penalties (some were sketchy, but I digress), but he is still a solid pass protector. Even still, they will be tested. As I mentioned above, it will be paramount for Slowik to dial up some quick hitters to get the ball out and prevent Willis from having to camp out in the pocket. As for run defense, the Bengals are lacking in the YPC allowed department. However, as this Instagram reel suggests, the Bengals are really bad at outside runs. If Achane were playing, I’d really like this matchup. With Wright and Gordon, I don’t feel as good. Wright has the explosiveness to run outside, but he has been struggling. Gordon lacks that explosiveness and the interior is the strength of their defense. I’m not sure the Dolphins can exploit this potential weakness. Perhaps they can get Malik Washington on some outside runs.
My best friend in high school was an avid skier. He got me hooked on it, but back then as a beginner, I was understandably nervous. We got up on the slope, and he decided to take this “detour” on a little path through the woods. I was less enthusiastic about this decision, and he came up with a phenomenal quote that I have remembered to this day. When I asked what I should do if I got into trouble, he said that I would think of something because… “desperation is the greatest inspirer”. Everyone knows what the Dolphins are this season. A win Sunday would be nice, but ultimately not that important. In fact, some would complain as this could negatively impact draft position. The Cincinnati Bengals on the other hand are aspiring contenders that are now looking up in their division to the 3-1 Ravens, 3-1 Browns, and the 2-2 Steelers whom they lost to in week 3. After their bye week, they stay on the road to face the Ravens and get the surging Falcons and Steelers in two of their next three games. Sitting at 2-2, they cannot, under any circumstances, get complacent and pretend like this game is an “easy win”. The Ravens have their own tough road ahead. The Steelers and the Browns have some easier opponents in the mix. If the Bengals slip up against the 0-4 “tanking” Dolphins, then sitting 2-3 in THAT division could spell big time trouble. If they were 3-1 or 4-0, maybe some complacency would set it. But being 4th in their division already, desperation will be their greatest inspiration. They have the 2 wins, but they came at the expense of two of the other 0-4 teams this season. If they are handicapped by missing their 2 top offensive playmakers, they will be utterly desperate to get this win by any means necessary. Joe Burrow is one of the best QBs in the league and he is still dangerous with or without his WR duo. They will have a plan to attack the Dolphins in every facet even without their star WRs. Under difference circumstances, maybe this would be a “trap” game. Not now. This is one the Bengals HAVE to win and they will play like it. Can the Dolphins step up to that challenge?
If everyone was healthy, I wouldn’t give the Dolphins much of a chance to earn their first win of the season. Per the injury report on Thursday, Higgins was a DNP while Chase was limited. If they do play, the Bengals will score 40+ points like they did last season. If they don’t play, then I like Miami to have a chance. The Bengals don’t have great tertiary weapons that Miami can’t develop an answer for. After the Hockenson debacle, the Dolphins will certainly be keying on Gesicki and any other TE the Bengals can throw at them. On offense, the Dolphins will hope the breakout carries over for Gordon. If he can generate some positive runs, the Dolphins have a good chance to control time of possession, wear down the Bengals’ defense, and maybe steal an unexpected win.
Anyway, in honor of my Appalachian heritage, here’s some Van Halen like you’ve never heard them before.